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04-03-2014, 10:36 AM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,540
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyhill
What is so absurd about what Trader X has said? He stated 57% winners with a ROI of 1.11%. This is an average win mutual of just under $4.00 if my morning math is correct. Not my method of play but i have known a few players over the years with this style of play who have been successful. None used a progressive betting system though. Most of them i know developed this style because of rebates. Always thought this way of play was easier to be profitable with in the harness game. Don't get me wrong this way of play takes solid handicapping skills and massive discipline. I always likened it to being a don't bettor on the craps tables.
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But TraderX does no handicapping whatsoever.
__________________
Live to play another day.
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04-03-2014, 10:48 AM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 2,198
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Nothing is absurd about it.
He's either:
A- A Pro like he says, and for whatever reason he felt the need to go online, hint at the edge that he has, that allows him to make his living, while disparaging others.
B- Here to sell a system to suckers, he has the key to the mint after all, and all you need to do is follow his selection criteria for heavy favorites, and maybe try a slight betting progression, and you too can be a pro player. [Where have we heard that sales pitch before?]
C- Has an active imagination.
I'm all for "A". Welcome to the board.
Give the guy the benefit of the doubt. Maybe he's another good player on the PA board. If he gets too pushy or seems to be using a sales pitch to solicit inquiries - throw him on ignore.
As far as the figures he gives:
He says he's essentially getting $3.90 on horses that should really be $3.50 on the tote.
He also mentions a progression system. I don't what the purpose of that progression system is.
He also says the most consecutive losses he has faced is 4. That is possible but for every 1,000 plays he is actually exposed to consecutive loss streaks up to 8.
Yea the progression part makes little sense.
he did mention that "each year at some point. Sometimes individual 100 race outcomess show a -.95 or -.97 ROI"
So apparently certain times during the year his 1.11 ROI dips, and he relies on a progression system to get through those down swings...
If the rest of the time he's getting 1.15 ROI or something maybe, but if he's saying that he turns a .95 ROI into a 1.11 ROI through a progression system, he's only fooling himself.
Like I said, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as an eccentric pro, but the salespitch/BS early warning alarms have been tripped.
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Robert, taking a wild guess at this put possibly he is using the methodology that revolves around tote board wagering tools? A few posters here use that exclusively. With long term hit rates based on odds this idea seems feasible albeit which favorites do you throw out or what is that threshold for no play for profitability? That's probably the key in this case IMO.
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04-03-2014, 10:58 AM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
But TraderX does no handicapping whatsoever.
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Hi thaskalos
Since TraderX is betting favorites, his handicapping is done for him by the public. His approach most likely has indicators, bet/no bet. So, by his definition there is no handicapping per se.
Thomas Sapio
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04-03-2014, 11:05 AM
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#64
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubicon55
Robert, taking a wild guess at this put possibly he is using the methodology that revolves around tote board wagering tools? A few posters here use that exclusively. With long term hit rates based on odds this idea seems feasible albeit which favorites do you throw out or what is that threshold for no play for profitability? That's probably the key in this case IMO.
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Best to ask TraderX. From what little he has shared, it seems more like a selection criteria system within an odds range, but the X-man will be the one to ask.
As far as the general topic of tote wagering tools - I really like it.
Part of my methodology involves making a morning line of how I "expect" the public tote board odds to be.
Then if the actual tote behavior is different than what I expected, I will often consider that to be significant.
I will then use that as an additional factor or variable to add into my own handicapping opinion.
I also think that there are certainly some significant tote board behaviors that can by themselves signal a likelihood for certain types and patterns.
It's an interesting subject. I haven't been hands on with it outside of looking for unexpected behavior on races that I've already found a play in.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-03-2014, 12:08 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I don't understand the "progression" part. What are we trying to accomplish when we use a progression method instead of, let's say, a flat-bet method? Are we trying to secure a profit for ourselves every couple of days...or trying to turn an otherwise losing method into a winner?
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Absolutely agree. Those i know who play a similar way are grinding for the rebates. No progression but a workman like approach. Far more difficult nowadays than in previous years from what they tell me.
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04-03-2014, 12:16 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
But TraderX does no handicapping whatsoever.
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Magic 8 ball? Shake you're way to a winner.
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04-03-2014, 12:31 PM
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#67
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Educated Speculation
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Where Palm Trees Sway
Posts: 914
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I suppose if I didn't want to do any real Handicapping whatsoever, I might be tempted to just pick Chalk. But then, I'd lose some of the fun in racing for me. That longshot at 15 to 1 is too exciting for me to pass up when the time is right.
However, if I was permanently in the "Chalk" mode, I'd probably rather invest in a Dart Board, Number if from 1 - 10, and start throwing Darts. Wherever it hits, that's who I'd bet. For real fun, the Bullseye would mean - Bet the Longshot. Simple Handicapping that only takes a few seconds, albeit not very effective.
Back to the OP's question - I've blown the dust off of Quinn's "Recreational Handicapping" since I've not looked at it in a very long time. Plan to read it again in the next few weeks.
__________________
"Horse Sense" is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
Last edited by BettinBilly; 04-03-2014 at 12:33 PM.
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04-03-2014, 12:37 PM
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#68
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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The point I was trying to make is that he says he does "no handicapping", and yet he is betting some favorites and not others. Which means he has to have some sort of selection criteria, and that "criteria" is "handicapping", IMO. The 57% winners part doesn't concern me because if one bets only horses less than 1/1 they'll hit about 50% over time, but 300 races is not "over time". And, even players who bet horses under 1/1 will still lose money over time, that is the kicker, he has to be doing some kind of selection/analysis/handicapping in order to show a profit betting favorites.
Then he throws in the "removing the zeros on the roulette wheel" thing.
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04-03-2014, 01:04 PM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
The point I was trying to make is that he says he does "no handicapping", and yet he is betting some favorites and not others. Which means he has to have some sort of selection criteria, and that "criteria" is "handicapping", IMO. The 57% winners part doesn't concern me because if one bets only horses less than 1/1 they'll hit about 50% over time, but 300 races is not "over time". And, even players who bet horses under 1/1 will still lose money over time, that is the kicker, he has to be doing some kind of selection/analysis/handicapping in order to show a profit betting favorites.
Then he throws in the "removing the zeros on the roulette wheel" thing.
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Of course there is some selection process, be it a racing form, computer program or tote board. Once he states 2 or 3 wagers daily there is automatically a selection/analysis/handicapping process being used. No sense much more time being wasted here. IMO You and Thask summed everything up.
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04-03-2014, 01:05 PM
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#70
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Heck, I could say I don't do any handicapping either, but my software does a hell of a lot of handicapping, and I had to build it, so I can't say "no handicapping", I must say "no manual handicapping". I can even say my race hit rate is over 57%, overall, and my ROI is much higher than 1.11, but that leaves a lot of dark areas yet to explain.
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04-03-2014, 07:14 PM
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#71
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Educated Speculation
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Where Palm Trees Sway
Posts: 914
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That's a good point. But as some of us mentioned in another thread, those of us that have been playing since before personal computer programs, I sometimes still pull out the DRF and the highlighters. For nostalgia I guess.
BTW, I stopped into a Barnes and Noble today and perused the Sports section. Not ONE book on Horse Racing. Not ONE. Not ONE magazine on Horse Racing, even with the Derby coming up. The only thing even close was a "Cowboys and Indians" magazine touting the upcoming movie "Cowboys and how they Won the Derby". Yet, 4 magazines on Triathlon and 7 books on Triathlon - a sport that used to be so obscure only Ironman competitors knew about it.
Lucky we have Amazon.
__________________
"Horse Sense" is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
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04-04-2014, 06:50 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,467
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BettinBilly
BTW, I stopped into a Barnes and Noble today and perused the Sports section. Not ONE book on Horse Racing. Not ONE. Not ONE magazine on Horse Racing, even with the Derby coming up. The only thing even close was a "Cowboys and Indians" magazine touting the upcoming movie "Cowboys and how they Won the Derby". Yet, 4 magazines on Triathlon and 7 books on Triathlon - a sport that used to be so obscure only Ironman competitors knew about it.
Lucky we have Amazon.
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I agree. By me, the B&N has no more Horse Racing books. You have to have them order it. Or just use Amazon. However, there is an entire bookcase for Poker, blackjack and other casino games.
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04-07-2014, 10:32 PM
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#73
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Educated Speculation
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Where Palm Trees Sway
Posts: 914
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Just a thought on eReaders;
Some books on Handicapping refer to printed sample PP's contained within the text, by necessity, for training the emerging Handicapper. Therefore, these books are not efficient on eReaders like Kindle. I suggested "Handicapping 101" by Brad Free to a friend whom bought it on his Kindle Paperwhite. Even though he can blow up the sample PP's and read them, he can't read the text and then refer back to the PP mentioned in the text. You really do need an old fashioned bound paper book to get the most out of that kind of tutoring reading. Handicapping Philosophy books or general Horse Racing history or Theory may work great on eReaders, but certain training books with printed charts and graphs can be problematic on an eReader.
__________________
"Horse Sense" is the thing a horse has which keeps it from betting on people.
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04-08-2014, 05:14 AM
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#74
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Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
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You can make the case to learn Hong Kong. Clean racing and millions in the pools and for the first time comingled in America.
There's unlimited money to be made if you have a huge opinion, you never have to worry about crushing your own price, its essentially a form of fixed odds wagering as no matter what you bet, you still get the price you see for the most part.
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04-08-2014, 08:06 AM
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#75
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
You can make the case to learn Hong Kong. Clean racing and millions in the pools and for the first time comingled in America.
There's unlimited money to be made if you have a huge opinion, you never have to worry about crushing your own price, its essentially a form of fixed odds wagering as no matter what you bet, you still get the price you see for the most part.
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Since this thread started out as advice to the new handicapper. I will offer this up. Don't carried way with huge opinions. Gamblers Anonymous is full of people who had too many huge opinions.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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