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06-14-2014, 04:17 PM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sapio
Hi Robert
From a good source, try PP and 1 - 1/odds as regressors as a starting point.
odds = final tote odds
Thomas Sapio
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However when one is ready to make the bet, they don't know the final odds, as such I would never use final odds as factor IMO.
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06-14-2014, 04:40 PM
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#47
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Some_One
However when one is ready to make the bet, they don't know the final odds, as such I would never use final odds as factor IMO.
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In almost all cases at major tracks you have a pretty good guess at the range to work with at 1 MTP.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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07-23-2014, 12:06 PM
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#48
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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I fell a couple weeks ago. no broken bones but back to rehab. Some decisions have to made in the next couple of weeks. I may go to assisted living. I have my laptop now so I will be back on limited basis.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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07-23-2014, 12:35 PM
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#49
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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I was wondering where you where last week.
Glad you're back - hope it works out. 
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-23-2014, 01:41 PM
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#50
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I fell a couple weeks ago. no broken bones but back to rehab. Some decisions have to made in the next couple of weeks. I may go to assisted living. I have my laptop now so I will be back on limited basis.
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Sounds very serious. Keep posting, if only to just say hello. I would like to know who you think will win at Dmr Thursday in race 2?
Be careful and take care.
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07-23-2014, 08:30 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,591
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I fell a couple weeks ago. no broken bones but back to rehab. Some decisions have to made in the next couple of weeks. I may go to assisted living. I have my laptop now so I will be back on limited basis.
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Robert, stay busy and get well soon.
God Bless
Mike
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07-23-2014, 10:53 PM
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#52
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I fell a couple weeks ago. no broken bones but back to rehab. Some decisions have to made in the next couple of weeks. I may go to assisted living. I have my laptop now so I will be back on limited basis.
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I hope you're not trying to use this as an excuse for not revealing what you found out about "Playing around with Prime Power Numbers"?
I've personally been waiting a long time for your study's results.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 07-23-2014 at 10:56 PM.
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08-14-2014, 07:10 PM
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#53
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Tomorrow I move to assisted living. Hopefully I will be able to post from there.
As for the research, the only thing I can say for sure is that top rated horses with big gaps don't win anywhere nears as often as they should and there may be value in betting in betting other horses in a race with such a horse especially if the other horse is bet. But most of you aready knew that. I intend to look at which horse when, as soon as I figure out how to write enough code in "R" to take advantage of their stat packages. I have found how far behind the times I have become in what should be basic skill (writing very simple code). What little I knew from a college I took over 40 years, I have forgotten and even I hadn't, it would be way past obsolete.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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08-14-2014, 08:49 PM
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#54
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Robert, best wishes for your recovery! As TM said, stay busy and keep in touch!!
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08-14-2014, 09:59 PM
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#55
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,861
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Good luck, Bobby - hope it works out good for you.
Just an observation, I see a lot of horse with huge gaps back to #2 that do not run well. Maybe you'll write book about this.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-16-2014, 03:26 AM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
I then use square root of Kelly to determine the size of the bet. I plug 75% of my % win chance for the estimate chance of winning in the Kelly formula. I am being very conservative because it so early in the development.
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Hi Robert,
Hope you get well soon!
It's good to be conservative in estimating your probabilities -- especially early on when you don't know whether your bets have a positive expected value or negative expected value.
You might consider this: According to research done by Dr. Z a good method of sizing your bets is to use fractional Kelly.
Using a square root is probably way too conservative given that you are already reducing your probability by 25%. By using the sqr you are not getting the biggest benefit of Kelly because as the recommended full Kelly bet gets larger you are betting a smaller percentage than if you just bet a flat percentage of Kelly.
You are not likely to go broke by being conservative, but in theory, by betting less than full Kelly, but you are also not maximizing your wealth because you are underbetting.
If the recommended bet is $9 then the sqr is $3 -- 33% of full Kelly. If the recommended bet is $64 then the sqr is $8 -- 25% of full Kelly. For a $100 bet the sqr is $10 -- 10% of full Kelly. If the full Kelly bet is $10,000 you would only bet $100 -- 1% of your bet. As your fully Kelly bet approaches infinity your sqr percentage approaches 0%. If your probabilities are accurate you would bet $2500 if you had a $10,000 suggested full Kelly wager and were betting 25%. That's a big difference. And your wealth would be growing exponentially, as it is supposed to using Kelly.
So betting 25% of full Kelly might be a better option than the sqr. You still minimize the chance of going broke, while getting the benefit of maximizing the growth of your wealth.
With small bets it doesn't make much of a difference -- especially in the short run. But in the long run it could be huge.
Good luck!
Last edited by highnote; 08-16-2014 at 03:34 AM.
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11-21-2014, 07:02 AM
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#57
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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A small note on my dizziness. A doctor yesterday said my center of vision was off. I will go in after Thanksgiving and get corrective lens which should bring it back to where it is suppose to be in about 5 weeks. She said there may be other problems causing the dizziness too, but maybe not too. In any case, I have to get this fixed first.
Back to the Prime Power stuff. I am back to work on it some after getting rid of the Decrypt. Almost was saved to DropBox. Sometimes I actually do something that was smart.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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01-22-2015, 04:29 PM
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#58
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Well, I have final got 400 races entered into excel. Here is the first result.
Y=exp(0.14863(Prime Power Rating)
Sum the Ys for the race.
Take the Y for the horse and divide by the sum.
You now the percentage of each horse winning.
Note: instead of using the PPR, I use the PPR minus the lowest rated horse's PPR.
A morning line can be constructed by
ML= 0.83(17% takeout) divided a horse's winning percentage and then subtracting one. Round down and convert to familiar odds. For instance 1.4 becomes 7/5, 2.6 becomes 5/2, and 8.8 becomes 8/1.
These numbers are a horse's chance of winning, not an attempt to guess the pari-mutuel odds. They are based on BRIS's prime power rating. I would not wager on these numbers alone because I believe they will not show a positive ROI if you try to bet overlays to these numbers. Plus I have some doubts about that a point difference between the top two horses is the same as point difference between the bottom two horses. This first run of the numbers treated all PPR in the race the same.
The Good Lord willing and the creek don't rise, I will be back here in the near future with some more PPR insights.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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01-29-2015, 09:15 AM
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#59
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Denver, CO.
Posts: 217
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Robert, I hope your health improves! Thank you for sharing your work.
Doug
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01-29-2015, 11:31 AM
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#60
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
Y=exp(0.14863(Prime Power Rating)
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Why 0.14863? Why not use the PP as it is?
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