Santa Anita *TRACK PHANTOM*

[Track Phantom]

2-28-14

RACE 5 CLM 8K (5.5F DIRT)
#5 GIANNONATTI 2-1
#3 J LOUIE 9-5
#4 TORRE ITALIANA 12-1
#1 SMIL’N FROM ABOVE 2-1

#5 GIANNONATTI
Love playing horses like this in these smaller claiming races. She has only missed the board 4 times, has only been beaten more than 3 lengths 4 times and is in good form. Expect to get a nice closing trip from the outside in a race where there is some very cheap speed. Didn’t exactly catch much in last and has been a synth runner mostly.

#3 J LOUIE
Beat three others in here in last when she was 4th back in Jan. Has the best early speed in the race but has done her best running at LA. She is 5 of 7 in the money outside of SA and has only 1 win on SA dirt in 7 starts. Still must be respected here.

[Track Phantom]

3-1-14

3rd
#4 TARAN TARAN 3-1
#3 BAD BEHAVIOR 3-1
#2 UNBRIDLED LOYALTY 8-1
#1 NEXT RIGHT 8-1

#4 TARAN TARAN (3-1)
Bafferts numbers with this owner are off the chart. He has won 14 of 28 (45%) with 24 in the money (86%) MSW sprint at 3-1 or less for this owner. Not much on breeding but still cost 280k. Working since Nov 20th and the recent works are typically fast for a Baffert runner.

#3 BAD BEHAVIOR (3-1)
Fairly obvious looking runner for Baffert who was 5-2 and favored in debut. Longshot Mr. Sexy went q’horse on the lead. G2 winner, Moreno was 5th in that race. Work on 2-16 jumps off the page.

[Track Phantom]

3-2-14

1st 16k CLM (5.5F)
#4 CLEARLY CONFUSED 8-5
#2 TEMPE 9-5
#1 VALARTA 8-1
#5 MISS AMERICAN PIE 9-5

#4 CLEARLY CONFUSED (8-5)
Process of elimination here more than anything. Lots of speed and some of it very cheap. This runner will absolutely be last early. Should tuck up the rail and make a late run. Trainer is absolutely on fire. Keeps great closing rider in Talamo.

#2 TEMPE (9-5)
5 wins in the last 8 starts and all of them were wire to wire. Slight drop in purse from last and a major bump in purse from two back win. Well placed for a sneaky good trainer. One to beat in here.

[Track Phantom]

3-6-14

4th ST ALLW 40k (5.5F DIRT)
#2 CRIMSON GIANT 4-1 Linares
#6 JUST DANCING 8-5 Talamo
#2 I’M NO PATSY 3-1 Gutierrez
#1 HLAO ROO 5-1 Sutherland

#2 CRIMSON GIANT (4-1)
He’s run too good to have only one win in 47 starts. If you focus on the just the last 8 races, he really fits here. Top two favorites both like to quit and will likely throw it down early. A couple others in here look cheap or broken. If he can’t get rolling early enough, he wins easily.

#4 SOUTHERN SUNRISE (8-5)
Will have to deal with rail horse early and there is little indication this runner can deal with speed and kick on. Can roll if he is right but 6 year old gelding has only 6 starts. Very suspect.

[Track Phantom]

3-7-14

1st MDN CLM 50k (6F DIRT)
#5 PASEO ALEGRO 5-2 Orozco
#1 WAR POLITICS 2-1 Bejarano
#4 BAKER BOYS 4-1 Talamo
#6 SEEKING ASYLUM 9-5 Bejarano

#5 PASEO ALEGRO (5-2)
What an odd stat. This trainer has 7 wins in 171 starts (4%) and only in the money 26% but has a win (13%) and 6 in the money (75%) from 8 times first off the claim. 8 time winner was getting to Courtside last out. Appears to be the only one with any true tactical speed to pick up the pieces when Unstopper Topper backs up (front wraps last). Should lead with 100 to go.

#1 WAR POLITICS (2-1)
Hollendorfer/Bejarano on a winner last time out have won 37% in next start. Has hit the board in 3 of 5 on SA dirt track. Saves ground here.

[Track Phantom]

3-8-14

3rd CLM 12.5k (6F DIRT)
#9 NOME 8-1 Maldonado
#10 QUICK CIELO 4-1 Mojica
#5 PASS THE PICO 5-2 Rosario
#6 TRIBAL SMOKE 7-2 Baze

#9 NOME (8-1)
Harrington only won 12 times last year but he has actually won 6 of his last 15 starts and many of those runners ran huge at very long odds. Going back to the rider that was aboard for most of the races and the only win (at 32-1 in debut). Big drop, good works. Late run.

#10 QUICK CIELO (4-1)
Has only started on the dirt once and that was a win as the 9-5 favorite at Fairplex. Has never been at this low level. Trainer good with layoffs of this type. Two good works coming in here.

[bks]

Nice hit, Valento. Wish I'd seen your post

I realized Harrington had started to win recently, but he's been so bad for so long I'm still out of the habit of including him.

[Track Phantom]

Couldn't believe the horse was 16-1.

My analysis had the pick 5 cold (all 5 winners were my top choice) and I was betting a race at TAM and missed the first race at SA (forgot it was an early post).

Hard game.

[Track Phantom]

3-9-14

2nd $30,000 MAIDEN CLM (1M DIRT)
#2 EVEN ECHO 4-1 Espinoza Cho Myung
#6 BLUEGRASS FOX TR 3-1 Gryder Taylor
#7 PRINCE OF PARIS 5-2 Van Dyke Glatt
#4 CLEARDOFALLCHRG 9-2 Sutherlnd Sadler

#2 EVEN ECHO (4-1)
If you’re a trainer winning at a 3% clip and wondering why, the management of this colt is your answer. Entered in two G1 races, the last of which he was 275-1. Has been keeping company with runners that are worlds better than this group. Two decent works since last and a key rider change to boot.

[Track Phantom]

3-13-14

3rd $10,000 CLAIMING (6F D)
#8 METAXA 3-1 Orozco
#5 LADY VIVIEN 7-2 Couton
#2 ANGEL’S MOON 7-2 Maldonado
#4 SMIL’N FROM AB 12-1 Van Dyke

#8 METAXA (3-1)
She was very impressive when under the care of trainer Breuer. She got this one to fire at double digit odds multiple times. Trainer over 30% first off the claim. He won with his last claim, right at this level, with Tuckers Point. She could easily move up some points with Miyadi taking over.

#5 LADY VIXEN (7-2)
Claimed for twice the price two starts back and now drops to lowest level. Trainer has a history of claiming, raising and dropping. Has an excellent dirt record (8 of 13 in the money). 4th in last dropped to 12k cl at GG and won at 6-5

[Track Phantom]

3-14-14

7th $62,500 OPT CLM (6.5F T)
#1 FOLLINI 4-1 Talamo
#4 KLISZ 6-1 Van Dyke
#7 A TOAST FOR Y 5-2 Gutierrez
#2 HOTRADAMUS 9-2 Bejarano

#7 FOLLINI (4-1)
Looks to be the only real speed in the race. Talamo has been up for three wire to wire wins on him and now he has the rail to boot. He has done his best running leading from the inside. Has a solid work tab since last. Talamo will be able to get quick command and slow it down.

#4 KLISZ (6-1)
At one point, he was intriguing enough to be sent off as the 3rd choice in the G2 Arcadia and that was a 13 horse field. Has been routing mostly of late but has a couple come from behind sprint wins. Sneaky trainer, good works.

[Track Phantom]

3-15-14

5th $30,000 STR ALLW (1M 1/16 DIRT)

#3 SIR MACHO 8-1 Baze Baltas
#8 BRAVE ACT 7-2 Bejarano Truman
#7 TENKILLER KID 7-2 Delgadillo O’Neill
#6 HELLO FRANKIE 8-1 Orozco Cecil

#3 SIR MACHO (8-1)
Was claimed for 50,000 in his last start, which was a solid win on the move up in class. Trainer has claimed two other runners for these owners and one was Rangi, who was 2nd a neck at 7-1 first off the claim. Pace really favors his running style. Bred to go long. Baze stays up.

[Track Phantom]

3-16-14

2nd $56,000 MSW (6.5F DIRT)
#1 KATERRIFIC 3-1 Smith Powell
#2 SEATTLE CHARLIE 5-2 Bejarano Hollendorfer
#4 FAITH HOPE LOVE 7-5 Talamo Dollase
#5 COURAGEOUS CALL 3-1 Maldondo Ellis

#1 KATERRIFIC (3-1)
Powell had one other MSW firster with Smith up and that was Aotearoa. He was a 20-1 morning line runner bet down to 5-2 2 mn to post and won easily at 9-2. The works were similar, if not slower, than this one. Bred to win early. Sire 23% with first timers. Tab tote for clues.

[Track Phantom]

3-21-14

#2 E EQUALSMCSQUARED 5-1 Baze
#3 HEARITFORTHEGR 9-2 Maldonado
#1 WRITER FEVER 9-2 Espinoza
#4 JETBIRD 5-2 Mojica

#2 E EQUALSMCSQUARED (5-1)
Not sure what happened last time out. She was coming in off a good effort 5 weeks earlier, kept Smith, went off favored and showed nothing. Trainer keeps her protected and goes to a go-to rider (27% with Kruljac). Only bad dirt effort was last out. Should get a great trip.

#3 HEARITFORTHEGIRLS (9-2)
Won what is turning out to be kind of a key race. 4 of the 6 runners who have come back to run have been in the exacta including 8th place finisher, Our Glitter Ball, who won at mc40k at 9-1 next out. Good work for Mullins.

[Track Phantom]

3-22-14

4th $200,000 SAN LUIS R-G2 (1 1/2M TURF)

#4 FIRE WITH FIRE 9-2 Baze Drysdale
#1 VAGABOND SHOES 4-5 Espinoza Sadler
#5 TEMERAINE 4-1 Stevens Proctor
#3 LUCAYAN 5-2 Smith Drysdale

#4 FIRE WITH FIRE (9-2)
There is no question this runner will be setting a very slow pace. Nothing I love more than a lonely leader at a long distance when the field is trying to beat a 4-5 off the pace runner. Last two times he’s controlled the pace he won and was nosed out. Baze is great setting the pace.