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Old 02-24-2004, 06:32 PM   #31
Rick
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GT,

I agree 100% on what you've said. Another interesting thing about your "Scenario #2" is that many times neither of the top two horses will be the favorite and your ROI will higher as a result. I think some would call that a "chaos" race. I call it a "very profitable" race.

How your selection runs relative to it's odds seems to be a worthwhile thing to predict. But you also want to predict a good % of winners, not just lose by less on the average because you don't get paid for that.

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Old 02-24-2004, 07:02 PM   #32
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Originally posted by Game Theory-
Quote:
Scenario #1
-------------
Horse A: 100
Horse B: 98
Horse C: 85

Such scenarios often turn out to be better from a betting perspective. The public always tends to overbet the more obvious situations (horse with higher apparent advantage) and tends to ignore the less obvious (horse with smaller apparent advantage.)

It is this overreaction to what a horse looks like on paper that makes this game so fascinating- and one that can be beaten in the first place.

That said, I have had success factoring things into my own models that tend to cause the public to look the other way (high morning line odds/low speed fig last race/loss in stretch last race/out of money finish last race, etc. The result is that I tend to get a lower win percentage than most other players (12%-16%) with my own best plays- but I get a win mutuel that averages about $21.00 each time that I am right.
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Old 02-24-2004, 07:18 PM   #33
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Jeff,

You could say that the public is more predictable than the horses!
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Old 02-24-2004, 08:31 PM   #34
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Benter

Derek,

I think that Bill Benter's betting has been confirmed by people who know him and also his rival computer teams in Hong Kong. I do not know him, but the first I ever heard of somone beating the horse races was in a Andy Beyer article that appeared in the Washington Post on December the 23rd and 24th, 1994. I found the article fascinating and was amused at how Andy Beyer wrote the article. Evidently, Beyer visited Benter in 1994 in Hong Kong.

He referred to Benter as Mr B and for whatever reason, said that Benter was from England. I guess the reason for that was misdirection, because in the article, Beyer says that Benter did not want his identity revealed.

From memory, Beyer says in the article something like "I always thought that a computer could not beat the horse races, I now know different."

I think that Andy Beyer is a person who tells it like it is and if he says that Benter was beating the races then, I believe it.

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Old 02-24-2004, 09:00 PM   #35
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Benter has to post picks now too?

It is possible to evaluate the worth of an someone's idea without them posting picks first, you know. Do people who post winning selections automatically post good advice? One really doesn't have all that much to do with the other...
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Old 02-24-2004, 09:16 PM   #36
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OK, anymore posts that lead to severe thread drift will be deleted, just like recent ones by Derek have just been deleted. Don't even reply to MY post here, cause I'll just delete that too. If you've got a problem with what I'm doing, either start another thread, or write me privately....
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Old 02-24-2004, 10:21 PM   #37
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Not familiar with Hong Kong racing other than what I've read about it on this board. Curious about one thing. So I'll throw the question out there.

Why did Benter choose Hong Kong? Pool sizes over there are much larger than here. But is there something else about racing there that would make it easier to exploit than here? Field size, lack of published information/figures- dumb money in the pools- what?
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Old 02-24-2004, 10:43 PM   #38
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Closed circuit. There are only 1500 horses total or something. That, along with huge pools and most of the public betting with non-scientific methods (a data-based approach is antithetical to the general culture) and you've got an exploitable situation. Eventually, there were many competing computer teams, pretty much all of them created by foreigners (non-Chinese). The Hong Kong Jockey Club did not like the computer teams, and did their best to shut them out...
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Old 02-24-2004, 10:45 PM   #39
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I have a database of many factors.
What would you suggest I do to start a regression study?
Look at single factors, combinations?
I could use Excel to plot finsh positions or beaten lengths of horses with certain factors by rank, look for postivie correlation?
Is there a better program out there to run multiple studies?
WhatI do now is to querry Access for things like

Running Style F or E
Qirin speed points >6
F1 velocity rank 1
EP velocity rank <3

Then figure out impact values and roi for the results.
It sounds like you guys are skinng the cat with a sharper knife.
I re-read the chapters in the back of Bill Quirrin's first book, about the post position study and the formula he came up with.
My HTR data has some very predictive factors, and some factors that enhance the predictablilty of others (ie, jockey change, workout rating, are very potent)
I want to use my data to its fullest, and since some of these factors are not available to the general public, I think it will worth the work.
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Old 02-24-2004, 11:12 PM   #40
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You've probably read these.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.03


http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/te....computing.html


1200 horses racing against each other for 600 races at two tracks. Consistency would be very high.
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Old 02-25-2004, 12:40 AM   #41
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Originally posted by Tom-
Quote:
I have a database of many factors.
What would you suggest I do to start a regression study?
Look at single factors, combinations?
I could use Excel to plot finsh positions or beaten lengths of horses with certain factors by rank, look for postivie correlation?
Is there a better program out there to run multiple studies?
WhatI do now is to querry Access for things like

Running Style F or E
Qirin speed points >6
F1 velocity rank 1
EP velocity rank <3

Then figure out impact values and roi for the results.
It sounds like you guys are skinng the cat with a sharper knife.

Tom,

I've spent hundreds of, no- make that thousands of- man hours, over the last decade or so, coding out my own programs- always tinkering with my own database and the interface to it. I use Visual Basic and SQL.

One thing that I managed to do very well was create a good set of tools for myself. Take a single factor, say best figure last race. Say I want to know how that factor performs across x number of races or for x time period. Instead of writing and running a single query to test how the top rated horse in that category performed, and then writing and running a second query to see how the second ranked horse in that category performed, and then writing and running a third query to see how the third ranked horse in that category performed, etc- I instead took the time to develop and test a VB function that hits the database and returns the results of positions 1-20 by rank within that single category. So instead of 20 separate trips to the database, I click a couple of drop downs and buttons and make ONE TRIP through the database to get back information on how each of the 20 positions (by rank) performed in that category.

I also have another VB function that does the same thing by numeric ranges and difference from category leader instead of by rank. Again, the output I get is that for 20 separate numeric ranges (as opposed to one single range) for a single databse trip or query.

Having stuff like that (once you've taken the time to create it) is a GREAT timesaver.


Sounds like you are an Access user. If you are so inclined you could accomplish the same thing by creating and storing queries in Access.

Personally, I never liked that approach. Even though SQL Query Analyzer (in my case) packs a strong punch in this area, I opted, instead, to write VB code to hit the database, store the output in public variables, and output those to a textbox when done. The numbers I generate are often of my own making. This approach seemed to give me better ability to tweak my own numbers as the need arose. You could also do the same thing in Access using VBA code if you are familiar with it.
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Old 02-25-2004, 12:49 AM   #42
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Quote:
I have a database of many factors.
What would you suggest I do to start a regression study?
Look at single factors, combinations?
I could use Excel to plot finsh positions or beaten lengths of horses with certain factors by rank, look for postivie correlation?
Is there a better program out there to run multiple studies?
WhatI do now is to querry Access for things like

Running Style F or E
Qirin speed points >6
F1 velocity rank 1
EP velocity rank <3

Then figure out impact values and roi for the results.


Tom,

Exactly. What you end up doing is running queries trying to spot combinations of things that work. But be prepared- very little of what you test actually does work. And a lot of what works seems contrary to what SHOULD work. Horses that look good on paper attract money at the windows. The trick, in my opinion, is to isolate things that do two things: 1. Cause bettors to run the other way when they are present, And 2. Don't adversely affect a horse's true chances of winning too much.
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Old 02-25-2004, 12:55 AM   #43
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Lou,

Thanks for posting the links. No. I hadn't stumbled across these yet and enjoyed the read.
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Old 02-25-2004, 01:07 AM   #44
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Originally posted by Jeff P
Originally posted by Ranchwest:


Ranchwest,

The answer to all of your questions is: No.

Unless somebody on this board is privy to the Bris algorithm for prime power and wants to share, I'm in the dark as to how it is calculated. I've contacted Bris a handful of times iquiring how they calculate it. Their answer has always been "It's proprietary. See our webpage for further explanation." Very helpful- no?

Rail position, although it seems to be a simple isolated factor, as you suggest, might not be. Before using it as such, further testing appears to be in order.


For all we know, the BRIS Prime Power algorithm could already have a factor for post position, so that if you're then testing for post position performance, you're actually "double dipping" to some extent.

Also, the BRIS algorithm might include calculations that are weighted within time frames, so that your own assumptions about time frames might introduce an inherent conflict.

I would anticipate that results might vary between wet and dry tracks.

The winterization of a track could alter the density of the surface, most notably on the rail. Also, some surfaces might perform differently even if not specifically treated with a substance for winterization. Temperature might actually have an effect.

At the point at which horses exit the chute, it is possible that the tractors could pile dirt in such a way as to hamper the inside posts at the point where the chute ends and the track begins. This could affect your findings.

I'm sure there could be other factors.

For instance, what is the profile of the horse that beats the Prime Power horse?

I think I'd come up with a power figure that would be at least somewhat comparable to the BRIS number to test against.
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Old 02-25-2004, 07:35 AM   #45
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I originally looked at BRIS Prime Power to see if I could find some factors contained within it that weren't obvious that I could use to develop my own method. I didn't find anything like that so I took a different approach. But, someone else may find things that I missed. There is some value in there somewhere because the top 3 ratings lose much less than average.
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