"The Signal and the Noise"

[Cholly]

Has anyone read this book by Nate Silver? Any opinions on its usefulness for either handicapping or life-in-general?

[Native Texan III]

Both.
A superb book from someone who knows the issues and discusses them with honesty and clear thought.

[dkithore]

Cholly,

What is the book about? Kindly offer a few words. I like to read good books (re. horses).

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by dkithore

Cholly,

What is the book about? Kindly offer a few words. I like to read good books (re. horses).

Since Native has read it, and I (also a native texan) haven't, he'd be your man. But aside from having a catchy title, here's from the Amazon trailer:

Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: "People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them."

[SchagFactorToWin]

Sounds interesting. Just ordered it.

[SchagFactorToWin]

I would consider this to be a must-read for all handicappers. He discusses the making of predictions in economics, the stock market, poker, politics, etc. Just read it and replace each of those subjects with 'horse racing"!

[Clocker]

There is a detailed summary of this book at New Books in Brief.

http://newbooksinbrief.com/

Click on "Past Articles" in the menu bar, then select "Past Articles (2012)". Scroll down and click on this title to see the summary.

[Robert Goren]

Nate Silver will be joining ESPN/ABC. He will be part of the new Keith Olbermann show on ESPN and do some election work for ABC.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...times/2570623/

Just when the conservatives thought it was safe to leave their basements to restock their supply of Cheetos, Olbermann is back and he is bringing Nate Silver with him.

[dkithore]

Originally Posted by Clocker

There is a detailed summary of this book at New Books in Brief.

http://newbooksinbrief.com/

Click on "Past Articles" in the menu bar, then select "Past Articles (2012)". Scroll down and click on this title to see the summary.

Thank you. That was helpful.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Robert Goren

Nate Silver will be joining ESPN/ABC. He will be part of the new Keith Olbermann show on ESPN and do some election work for ABC.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...times/2570623/

Just when the conservatives thought it was safe to leave their basements to restock their supply of Cheetos, Olbermann is back and he is bringing Nate Silver with him.

Did I read where Olbermann will be banned from talking about politics on ESPN? lol

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Did I read where Olbermann will be banned from talking about politics on ESPN? lol

He will not talk politics unless it is related to a sports story according to what I read. We will see how long that lasts.

[Cholly]

Thanks to Warden Perry, the Baptist brigade and the accumulated lobbying power of Texas tracks I have a bit of time on my hands--so I got this book down and finally finished reading it.

One sentence of Mr. Silver's is a succinct summary of the book, "In general our predictive errors come in thinking there is more certainty in the world than there really is."

[dkithore]

Originally Posted by Cholly

Thanks to Warden Perry, the Baptist brigade and the accumulated lobbying power of Texas tracks I have a bit of time on my hands--so I got this book down and finally finished reading it.

One sentence of Mr. Silver's is a succinct summary of the book, "In general our predictive errors come in thinking there is more certainty in the world than there really is."

sounds a bit like Nassim Taleb's Black Swan book.

[raybo]

Stats are fine, but there seems to be a pervasive obsession with them in horse racing. Stats will only take you so far in this game, after which the skill of the player must take you the rest of the way. Most are unable, or unwilling, to finish the journey.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by dkithore

sounds a bit like Nassim Taleb's Black Swan book.

Or Taleb's earlier book, "Fooled by Randomess". In that one, he examines the tendency of people to assume that success is a function of ability, whereas it is often a function of luck, circumstances, and randomness.

Kind of like assuming a horse was the class of the field, when he actually won because of a good trip and a track bias. But I don't think Taleb is a handicapper. At least not of horses.