Kentucky Derby Analysis

[Will Power]

I will give a free book to the first 3 people that promise to post a review. Just send me your email.

[Will Power]

Thanks everybody for the overwhelming response.

The free books have been delivered.

[zerosky]

Many thanks for making this available. Its certainly interesting reading, although its difficult
to draw firm statistical conclusions with such a small sample size.

If I were to attempt extracting some juice from these few races I would certainly exclude
'Mine That Bird' as an outlier. (4th in his prep race with a bris speed of 88)

[Will Power]

zerosky, thank you for being a man of your word and posting a review.

I agree that small sample sizes may be problematic. Yet, I consider my methodology valid.

Out of thousands of data bits per horse in a race, most horseplayers look at and overvalue finish last race and speed ratings. I found and presented undervalued attributes that were shared by winning horses.

In fact, 4th place finish in last race was one of the highest single factor ROI's in all of the data at $7.62 AND sported a higher than average win% at 7.4%.

The information is historical and factual.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Will Power

zerosky, thank you for being a man of your word and posting a review.

I agree that small sample sizes may be problematic. Yet, I consider my methodology valid.

Out of thousands of data bits per horse in a race, most horseplayers look at and overvalue finish last race and speed ratings. I found and presented undervalued attributes that were shared by winning horses.

In fact, 4th place finish in last race was one of the highest single factor ROI's in all of the data at $7.62 AND sported a higher than average win% at 7.4%.

The information is historical and factual.

i didn't ask or read your book, but i have to agree with your 4th place information. the reason why it is correct is because the horse that finishes first in those races many times won easy and had no challenge, while the 4th place horse had a horse race on his hands and usually gets more out of the race than the winner. you have a more than valid point and sometime i might want to read your book.