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Old 04-07-2013, 01:00 PM   #61
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That is half the fun of talking about it.
Does Super Bowl talk never start until after the championship game?
We know pretty much who will be running. I don't see any surprises coming along.
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:03 PM   #62
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Hard to know. Sometimes it suits horses like Orb or Normandy Invasion, sometimes it suits forwardly placed horses that have good stamina.


Those are two different kinds of offpace horses Robert.Orb could win in likely any pace scenario IMO except a runoff horse.Whereas Normandy could is likely going to need a little pace help.That said I like both of them.I liked Normandy's prep race and saw some Derby potential.
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:06 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Tom
That is half the fun of talking about it.
Does Super Bowl talk never start until after the championship game?
We know pretty much who will be running. I don't see any surprises coming along.


Exactly.What I'm looking forward to this year is the lack of repeated talk about Gemologist's immortal Triple Crown run!
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:38 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by ten2oneormore
Not so sure about this.You have to figure the majority of the public is going to use beyers and coming into the derby.

Goldencents 105
Verrazano 95


Would say Goldencents and Flashback are going to be the dressed up horses.



Horseplayers, yes. The betting public, maybe not. Based on speed figures, Verrazano should be somewhere around 8-1. Since he's undefeated and coming off a win in the Wood, probably 3-1 or less.
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:50 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by raybo
Come on guys, shouldn't you wait until the Derby field is finalized, and all the starters are saddled up, all the data is in, including scratches, etc., before trying to decide contenders? Heck most of you don't even know the variants from the SA Derby and the Wood. So, you can't compare those 2 race performances yet. I had both winners in my contenders, and according to the odds, a whole bunch of others did also, but I have no idea who the true contenders are for the Derby. Come Derby day we'll know the exact makeup of the field, and have adjusted times for everyone, etc.. Then we can see how these horses match up, at CD, not before, IMO.


Not if you bet into the Derby pools
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Old 04-07-2013, 01:59 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by Tread
While the pace was soft, people should not get carried away about the actual raw times. The wind was stiffly in the face of the horses leaving the gate and coming to the wire, 20mph sustained gusting to 30. This undoubtedly slowed down the the initial fractions and last 8th and explains why each 1/4 split in this race was faster than the last (until the last 8th), unlike just about every other "derby" race so far.

I see people all over Twitter trying to downplay the performance compared to the SA derby simply based on raw time. That SA surface was lightning quick all day with no wind issues. Anyone who thinks Goldencents would have also run 1.48 at Aqu yesterday is ridiculously delusional.

Verrazano has already shown he can handle pace pressure, one of his races at GP he was fully pressured thru splits of 45 and 109, so there is zero question about his ability to handle a hot pace.


How does a backstretch tailwind explain an even faster fourth quarter-mile? 37% of the fourth quarter-mile of a 9f race at Aqueduct takes place after the horses have straightened into the home stretch and the other 63% takes place during the middle and latter thirds of the far turn, so presumably any backstretch tailwind would be slowing them down when they ran the fourth quarter-mile, not speeding them up. Yet they ran that quarter faster than any preceding quarter, while transitioning to a headwind from a tailwind, in the final third of a dirt race? Face it, they sped up at that point because they had absolutely lollygagged early.

Some of us know how to make figures just fine and we knew yesterday that the SA Derby was a much faster race than the Wood-- on adjusted times, not just raw times.

The highest class and farthest distance that Verrazano has proven that he can handle legit fractions is the G2 8.5f Tampa Bay Derby. That's a far cry from the most important G1 race for spring 3YO's at 10f-- especially for a leader/presser type who is coming from a slow race where he was able to jog comfortably in 2nd position behind a hopeless longshot, into a race that is typically contested at a too-fast early clip.
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:15 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Those are two different kinds of offpace horses Robert.Orb could win in likely any pace scenario IMO except a runoff horse.Whereas Normandy could is likely going to need a little pace help.That said I like both of them.I liked Normandy's prep race and saw some Derby potential.


Good call.
I agree with you, if you want to get specific about it.
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:20 PM   #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
That is half the fun of talking about it.
Does Super Bowl talk never start until after the championship game?
We know pretty much who will be running. I don't see any surprises coming along.


Does that mean that you already have your contenders selected and your bets structured? A late scratch in the gate could change everything for me. A new entry from the remaining preps could also change everything. Sorry, this woulda, coulda, shouda, and can't and will, stuff just grinds on me. I'll step away so I don't step on any toes.
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:21 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Exactly.What I'm looking forward to this year is the lack of repeated talk about Gemologist's immortal Triple Crown run!


I, on the other hand, am not!
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:23 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by bob60566
Not if you bet into the Derby pools


I suppose, but does betting into those pools make you money? Maybe it doesn't matter to you, maybe just betting is enough?
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Old 04-07-2013, 02:27 PM   #71
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Originally Posted by raybo
I suppose, but does betting into those pools make you money? Maybe it doesn't matter to you, maybe just betting is enough?


After the derby maybe, if scratched definite no, enjoyment is enough,All part of the gambling game.
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Old 04-07-2013, 05:25 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by PICSIX
What about the pace scenario being altered by the handler of the 10 horse???

Was it the assistant starter not letting go or was it that the starter sent the horses away before everyone was ready. There seemed to be very little time between when Freedom Child entered the gate and when the gate opened.
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Old 04-07-2013, 05:38 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by burnsy
And thats the problem with the race. The pace scenario will never be like this derby day. The Wood will most likely be a bust as a prep, just like last year. I'll admit the track was a little slow but derby week some horses will be working faster than this pace went and with the California horses, Arkansas Derby horses and some of the others from Florida and Fair Grounds...you will see these kinds of pace fractions in your dreams (in the derby). I really did not think much of Normandy Invasion and he probably ran the best race yesterday. That field was sort of slow and very unimpressive for a grade 1 million dollar race. Of course they came home faster than the Santa Anita race they walked for 3/4 of a mile! The derby is usually fast EARLY and SLOW late....i don't write the rules, most years thats just the way they run this race. I think all those horses were exposed in a way yesterday and now, Verranzano is "dressed up" and ready to go as another Pletcher chalky derby contender. Not saying he can't win but he has to move way better derby day off of 4 races that "make" him look "invincible". They are going 10 furlongs and you will never, ever see a 25 quarter or a 50 half until the final stages of this race. If you want to be on something that might make you some coin on derby day, this was just the sort of race you wanted yesterday. The big horse wins in a weak event like that and now the world loves him............I noticed people are dissing the california horses again.......those last two preps were run way more "derby like" than this race yesterday was. I'm thinking the winner comes from "other than NY" and i'm a NYRA bettor. I kind of think alot of Orb but he prepped in FLA.

The pace scenario will absolutely be different on Derby Day. But does that mean that will be a detriment to Verrazano? Of all the horses that will be contending, Verrazano has the highest natural speed. I think they made a mistake by allowing Classhandicapper to cruise along on the lead. From what Verrazano has done in previous races, it is clear that he could have taken the lead or forced a much faster pace and still have had plenty left for the stretch.

I think the final time and the Beyer figure are a result of the slow early pace and I think the slow early pace was not a reflection of the true abilities of the horses involved especially Verrazano.
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Old 04-07-2013, 05:44 PM   #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MickJ26
I think we'd all agree that Verrazano is going to be an underlay next month.

I don't think we would all agree to that at all. On the other hand that does depend on what odds you think he should be. Someone in this thread said he should be eight to one based on speed figures. If you have unrealistic expectations like that then, yeah, he will be an underlay.
ETA:
Oh, I just noticed that was you in another post.
If you are basing that on the beyer in the Wood, I have already expressed my opinion that that was a flawed figure. We shall see.
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Last edited by mostpost : 04-07-2013 at 05:48 PM.
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Old 04-07-2013, 05:45 PM   #75
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Good call.
I agree with you, if you want to get specific about it.


We got awhile before that bubba!!
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