BC Juvenile Fillies

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

At this stage I'm mildly interested in Vequest, but I need to look at some others better. Vequest was ahead of Dayoutoftheoffice early, then dropped back inside and allowed the latter to get position ahead of her. She was waiting in the pocket near the inside when Dayoutoftheoffice made her move and got the jump.

I've been wondering if she can turn the tables????

Vequist on pedigree might ultimately have more stamina than Dayoutoftheoffice and she was forced to make her move perhaps earlier than need be when the latter broke the race open at the top of the stretch. However, she also struggled to switch leads in the stretch and only offered a modest rally late.

I'm also not a giant fan of Simply Ravishing given last out one of the other speeds didn't break and another wasn't used. As impressive as she was, she wound up getting loose and going slow early by default.

Simply Ravishing had complete control of the race last out but she seemed to be willing to settle in her prior start prompting a fast pace so I don't think she's one-dimensional. In fact, she has the most versatile record with a 2-turn turf win while stalking, a wire-to-wire 2-turn dirt win, and a win in an extended sprint; all 3 at different tracks.

If you are willing to take a stab against Princess Noor, Dayoutofthoffice, and Simply Ravishing you'll probably have a good first day if you are right, but it may be a lot to ask to beat all three unless you think someone is very likely to jump up.

What do you think of Girl Daddy? I don't know what figure she earned but she stalked a fast pace in the Pocahontas and powered clear before finishing strongly through the wire. Crazy Beautiful, beaten favorite in that race and the Alcibiades, is a pretty good measuring stick; she had a tough trip but made no impression on Girl Daddy in the late stages.

[classhandicapper]

Vequist on pedigree might ultimately have more stamina than Dayoutoftheoffice and she was forced to make her move perhaps earlier than need be when the latter broke the race open at the top of the stretch. However, she also struggled to switch leads in the stretch and only offered a modest rally late.

I thought she finished well enough given the way they drew off from the rest of the field in a very fast race, though I'm not sure about the quality of the rest of that field. I may have to watch all the replays again to see what I think of the inside and how far off the rail she was early. It was a relatively easy trip other than getting kind of beaten to the move, but it looks better if you think the inside wasn't ideal.

Simply Ravishing had complete control of the race last out but she seemed to be willing to settle in her prior start prompting a fast pace so I don't think she's one-dimensional.

No disagreement.

What do you think of Girl Daddy?

I have no issue with her. She won despite a length or two of trouble at the start. I thought it was an odd race in that the very early pace seemed fast, then it slowed in the middle when she made her winning move. She's not quite as fast as the others.

I find these 2yos very difficult to "class" and I don't trust the numbers as much. Princess Noor just makes the race more intellectually interesting to me. That's why I brought this one up.

[Robert Fischer]

In that Pocahontas Stakes, I tried to evaluate the performance of Girl Daddy and Crazy Beautiful, but I had them close enough to each other that I couldn't separate who actually did the most running. The paper pace was a bit fast (against Girl Daddy), but Girl Daddy seemed to have better position, and Crazy Beautiful had poor position, and closed by herself in order to try to get into contention.

Leaning towards Girl Daddy having room to improve, and I like her works(at least 'on paper' w/out seeing them on video), and Crazy Beautiful seems like the 2nd string of her barns entries in the BC to Simply Ravishing. Simply Ravishing probably deserves some respect.

Biggest question with Girl Daddy would be how she runs when she doesn't have the upper-hand. I haven't seen that yet. Sometimes the performance doesn't translate straight into an adverse scenario. That's my worry. But if it does, it seems like she can stalk and try to get decent position, and maybe get a piece.

Would also prefer she breaks a little better.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Biggest question with Girl Daddy would be how she runs when she doesn't have the upper-hand. I haven't seen that yet. Sometimes the performance doesn't translate straight into an adverse scenario. That's my worry. But if it does, it seems like she can stalk and try to get decent position, and maybe get a piece.

Would also prefer she breaks a little better.

I'm curious why she didn't run again after that race, being in early September and several Grade 1s in October.

The race was a WIN AND YOU'RE IN and a bunch of trainers have unfortunately turned to the "training up to the BC" mentality; but Dale Romans runs his horses frequently and I would have put him far down on the list to adopt that approach.

Of course, Romans did the same thing with Dennis' Moment last year, and that worked out really well both short term and long term...

[classhandicapper]

According to XBTV Princess Noor recently worked in company with another Baffert horse named Spielberg. He was maiden that ran in a few stakes in CA with modest success. Yesterday was his first race since that work in company. He broke his maiden at DMR in the 1st race and earned a Beyer figure of 85. Princess Noor ran away from him easily when asked.

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/p...ber-24th-2020/

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

According to XBTV Princess Noor recently worked in company with another Baffert horse named Spielberg. He was maiden that ran in a few stakes in CA with modest success. Yesterday was his first race since that work in company. He broke his maiden at DMR in the 1st race and earned a Beyer figure of 85. Princess Noor ran away from him easily when asked.

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/p...ber-24th-2020/

That colt was highly touted all summer long and did relatively little. In fact, he was supposed to be part of the barn's BC contingent but was replaced by another horse that won his debut in a sprint last weekend (coincidentally named Classier). Looks like Baffert was ready to give up the ghost instead:

“We were thinking about the Breeders’ Cup,” Baffert said. “I’m trying to develop these young horses.

“The last race was disappointing. I thought he’d show more than that. We’ll give him another chance and put him in a spot he can break his maiden or run well.”

[Robert Fischer]

I didn't read too much into 'company' of the Princess Noor work. Looked like a structured/contrived work where the partner was out to set a soft target.

Once in while Baffert will let two compete in company (e.g. Thousand Words and Cezanne prior to the Shared Belief S.), but his M.O. for prepping stars into Stakes is solo or with a a 'sparring partner'.

[Spalding No!]

Florida horse Princess Secret is out of the race due to a positive test from an out-of-competition sample.

Not sure how the complexion of the race changes with just a 7-horse field.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Florida horse Princess Secret is out of the race due to a positive test from an out-of-competition sample.

Not sure how the complexion of the race changes with just a 7-horse field.

have not had time to even look at the pp's but I trust your judgement, Privman was saying this edition of the BC might be the most talented ever? Seems hard to believe.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Privman was saying this edition of the BC might be the most talented ever? Seems hard to believe.

If Privman said that it could be the dumbest comment of all time.

I didn't look at all the past BC Juvenile Fillies, but the 1990 edition had Meadow Star, Lite Light, Dance Smartly, Wilderness Song, and for good measure...Flawlessly.

This year's seems evenly matched on form and visual appearance. I have no idea about the speed figures...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If Privman said that it could be the dumbest comment of all time.

I didn't look at all the past BC Juvenile Fillies, but the 1990 edition had Meadow Star, Lite Light, Dance Smartly, Wilderness Song, and for good measure...Flawlessly.

This year's seems evenly matched on form and visual appearance. I have no idea about the speed figures...

was talking about the full BC card I believe, not the single race.

This appears to be the defacto BC thread on this board.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

was talking about the full BC card I believe, not the single race.

This appears to be the defacto BC thread on this board.

as a 'full card', I'm sure he's going to get a lot of argument against that (BC Sprint for example), but it is a nice card.

some of the the races are stacked.

good mix of starpower, and some handicapping puzzles.

[classhandicapper]

The average winning Beyer figure for the BC Classic since 1990 is 115.2. That includes 2 years when it was run on Synthetic (Zenyatta 112 and Raven's Run 110). Beyer figures for top class horses on synthetic used to run several points slower than on dirt. Beyer eventually made modifications to his synth figures to raise them, but not retroactively. If you add 2-3 points to the Classic synth figures or leave them out the average is more like 115.5.

It's seems unlikely anyone in this field is going to hit PAR, but with a few quality 3yos and Baffert involved, I guess that's possible.

[classhandicapper]

Raven's Run 110

Raven's Pass.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

was talking about the full BC card I believe, not the single race.

That might make the comment worse.

Never mind comparing to monster years like 1988 (Alysheba, Gulch, Miesque, Open Mind, Easy Goer, Personal Ensign, Winning Colors, etc.) or 1989 (Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, Bayakoa, Go For Wand, Steinlen, Safely Kept, Grand Canyon, Prized, etc.) or 2001 (Tiznow, Sakhee, Galileo, Fantastic Light, Val Royal, Banks Hill, Johanessburg, Tempera, Xtra Heat, etc.), just look at the divisions as a whole and the horses that are missing from this season:

The older horse division is led by horses that were also-rans last year (Improbable, Tom's d'Etat, By My Standards) and a horse (Maximum Security) who is barely holding onto his world beater status (by beating Midcourt) after his original trainer was indicted (and his current trainer doesn't appear to be far behind).

Turf division also ruled by also-rans (Channel Maker, United, Arklow). The Euros send second stringers and a freshly beaten Magical (who really was a second stringer, too, until she starting avoiding Enable).

Distaff division a joke all year outside Midnight Bisou, and she's newly retired.

The 3yo division absolutely decimated (mostly thanks to Baffert). A once dominant Tiz the Law suddenly back down to earth; Authentic lingering with unconvincing stamina.

The turf mile is an embarrassment; a second string Euro Circus Maximus and a couple of Guineas winners who didn't train on (Kameko and Siskin). An 7yo ex-claimer mare who hits hard at the Grade 2 level at best is the story of the race.

The Dirt Mile has War of Will, who's race record has been absolutely trashed by his trainer.

The turf females feature a couple Chad Brown mares trying to relive their glory days (Uni, Sistercharlie).

The 2yo races as always look competitive. Neither of the favorites in the colts race (Jackie's Warrior, Essential Quality) appears able to run in a straight line.

Who's missing:

Midnight Bisou
McKinzie
Honor A.P.
Code of Honor
Maxfield
the horse that was like Mitole but was grey and was only good for a few minutes
every 3yo in Baffert's barn aside from Authentic

Not exactly murderer's row, but their absences don't help the proceedings.

Basically in terms trying to put a stamp a championship campaign, in the entire BC you have only Swiss Skydiver, Rushing Fall, and maybe Vekoma and Improbable to look forward, too.