Weak Crop

[clicknow]

I think Game Winner is pretty awesome.

Besides him though, and I could be wrong about this, but I really liked and still like Baffert's Mucho Gusto. I have a feeling this one is going to blossom, late bloomer type. He's been one I liked out of the baffert team the best early on...but didn't happen for him. Let's see what he does

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Afleet

after Game Winner wins the Travers and Breeders Cup Classic-it will be a strong crop

I am a fan of Game Winner but one outstanding horse will not single handidly make it a strong crop.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I am a fan of Game Winner but one outstanding horse will not single handidly make it a strong crop.

I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but don't see the Stephan Foster winner taking the Classic. Gift Box well beaten in same race as well as Yoshida and Tenfold. Not sure Mckenzie wants 1 1/4, but he is probably the early favorite for the Classic; would rather see him in the Mile. 3 y/o's should have a strong say in the Classic

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Mucho Gusto - Cool horse, G3 or so, inexplicably hit a wall in the Sunland Derby. Most likely indicator of future issues and class issues, but some potential.

Mucho Gusto hit a wall at Sunland because he set a torrid pace. His other loss was the Los Al Futurity where he basically ran interference for Improbable.

When he's allowed to sit off the lead he settles nicely. He's also bred to be a route horse and his sire--Mucho Macho Man--certainly got better with age after moderate success as a 3yo.

Perhaps being held out of the classics like West Coast and Arrogate will prove to be to his benefit later this year and beyond.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Afleet

I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but don't see the Stephan Foster winner taking the Classic. Gift Box well beaten in same race as well as Yoshida and Tenfold. Not sure Mckenzie wants 1 1/4, but he is probably the early favorite for the Classic; would rather see him in the Mile. 3 y/o's should have a strong say in the Classic

Thunder Snow has been a steady customer his whole career outside a couple of missteps; perhaps the US-based campaign leading up to the BC will bring him up a notch especially in a light division. Catholic Boy is also pointing to dirt stakes (Suburban next) for at least part of his campaign.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Dream_Police

Just read in the Louisville Courier Journal that Country House will not run until 2020. I think we have seen the last of him. Mott states that there is not enough time to get him ready for the Travers or the BC, The BC is 4 months away, so there must be more to the story.

The last of him? Where's he going?

Horses miss significant time with relative frequency. He'll be back unless he is physically unable to EVER run again. Always a possibility but seems relatively unlikely. He sure couldn't get much of a stud deal at this point ( if he could even get one at all ).

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I am a fan of Game Winner but one outstanding horse will not single handidly make it a strong crop.

People lack objectivity. I could start a whole thread on this in the handicapping section. This horse is good but outstanding is a reach at this point. Its almost July and he hasn't won a single race this year. He's got no shot vs. Thunder Snow right now and still has not proven himself vs his own generation.

People are talking about weak crops how about weak racing? Look at the horses people are mentioning. Yoshida and Catholic Boy should be on grass. Gift Box is a decent horse at his best. Tenfold is another "ok" horse. McKenzie got his ass handed to him in the Classic. The entire game is thin on classic horse talent and people are already comparing one crop. Welcome to mediocrity. Most with talent....run to the breeding shed. Of course a 3yo may have a say...look what's left. Why do you guys think Thunder Snow is here? You can't just be a fan, unless you like losing.... You gotta be objective and honest. If you are selling me that Game Winner is some "super horse" at this point......you are neither.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by burnsy

People lack objectivity. I could start a whole thread on this in the handicapping section. This horse is good but outstanding is a reach at this point. Its almost July and he hasn't won a single race this year. He's got no shot vs. Thunder Snow right now and still has not proven himself vs his own generation.

People are talking about weak crops how about weak racing? Look at the horses people are mentioning. Yoshida and Catholic Boy should be on grass. Gift Box is a decent horse at his best. Tenfold is another "ok" horse. McKenzie got his ass handed to him in the Classic. The entire game is thin on classic horse talent and people are already comparing one crop. Welcome to mediocrity. Most with talent....run to the breeding shed. Of course a 3yo may have a say...look what's left. Why do you guys think Thunder Snow is here? You can't just be a fan, unless you like losing.... You gotta be objective and honest. If you are selling me that Game Winner is some "super horse" at this point......you are neither.

I was responding to the hypothetical post that if Game Winner wins the Travers and BC Classic and has an outstanding campaign it will indicate a strong 3YO crop.. My point was that even if he does, he is still just one horse and does not represent an entire drop. You are making a totally unrelated point about all of racing in response to my post.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I was responding to the hypothetical post that Game Winner wins the Travers and BC Classic and has an outstanding campaign. My point was that he is still just one horse and does not represent an entire drop. You are making a totally unrelated point about all of racing in response to my post.

Its because I look at the big picture, reality and cashing. I could give a crap about hypotheticals. That whole idea is unrelated to reality. I am about being realistic. I know, people hate that. But that's how you win. your point is......you have no point. I do. And its real.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Yoshida and Catholic Boy should be on grass.

Maybe on Yoshida, but his Woodward win is what makes him a viable Stallion, which is why he ran, and is running, on dirt. His last turf race was his worst effort in a long time as well. Catholic Boy's best race was in the Travers, also the race that made him a valuable Stallion. Now that he has a stud deal, MAYBE he will race on turf again, but that may well depend on incentives in that deal.

[castaway01]

While this group looks week, this discussion happens every year. When we had a Triple Crown winner, some said it was still a weak crop because there was only one good horse. If we get different horses winning the TC races, then it's a weak crop because no one is good enough to dominate and they just take turns beating each other. You can twist it however you want. Considering the top horses are mostly in the same races for a month and a half, only a few of them have a win in recent weeks. We'll have to wait until the current 3YO start facing older to really know what we have.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by castaway01

While this group looks week, this discussion happens every year. When we had a Triple Crown winner, some said it was still a weak crop because there was only one good horse. If we get different horses winning the TC races, then it's a weak crop because no one is good enough to dominate and they just take turns beating each other. You can twist it however you want. Considering the top horses are mostly in the same races for a month and a half, only a few of them have a win in recent weeks. We'll have to wait until the current 3YO start facing older to really know what we have.

Well said.

Thant's why I think that until they face older horses, a comparison of speed figures is the closest we have of an objective comparison of crops, preferably after the Breeder's Cup when all horses have come close enough to maturity to allow for fair comparisons. Then again, this years older crop seems weak so may not be an ideal measure for comparison, so we are left with speed figures.
CJ has said that so far this year's 3YOs are below average in terms of figures. I'm wondering to what extent that is true in terms of points below average or in relation to how far below the standard deviation that is at this point. We will get a better picture at the end of the season when the Eclipse Awards are handed out.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Its because I look at the big picture, reality and cashing. I could give a crap about hypotheticals. That whole idea is unrelated to reality. I am about being realistic. I know, people hate that. But that's how you win. your point is......you have no point. I do. And its real.

Everything in handicapping is an exercise in hypotheticals. That does not exclude the big picture. The ability to acknowledge hypotheticals is related to our ability to logically look at the future events such as betting and cashing. If you miss this, you have no point. Perhaps this video will enlighten you.

YouTube

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Dream_Police

Just read in the Louisville Courier Journal that Country House will not run until 2020. I think we have seen the last of him. Mott states that there is not enough time to get him ready for the Travers or the BC, The BC is 4 months away, so there must be more to the story.

yeah he knows the horse is a donkey and dont want to be exposed.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

yeah he knows the horse is a donkey and dont want to be exposed.

I'm not sure which is worse, your opinion or your grammar.