Ground Loss as a Handicapping Factor

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I think Omaha Beach was a superior talent but we might not see him to next year.

Yeah, I forgot all about him. No doubt.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Lets not forget Game Winner. He was probably best of all in the Derby and was even wider there than Tacitus was in the Belmont. Of course we don't know if he has matured since then like the others have.

I'm still on the fence about him, but we'll find out in the Travers.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm still on the fence about him, but we'll find out in the Travers.

Aren't these the kinds of decisions you have to make before the race if you want to be a successful bettor? Sure, you'll be wrong sometimes, but if you keep waiting for results to forma solid opinion you are just going to be a spectator much of the time.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Aren't these the kinds of decisions you have to make before the race if you want to be a successful bettor? Sure, you'll be wrong sometimes, but if you keep waiting for results to forma solid opinion you are just going to be a spectator much of the time.

lol

In his case, it's still not clear to me whether he was a precocious 2yo that's not developing as fast as some of the other 3yos or whether his wide trips have masked some of the development.

The reason I say that is for both the Rebel and SA Derby I didn't think being wide was especially disadvantageous on those days. He would have been better off saving some ground, but I don't think those efforts were quite as good as let's say what Ragozin and TG show or what adjusting his Beyer and TF figures for ground loss would show. But they were still good efforts. His Derby trip was more problematical because of how extremely wide he was. I just can't be exact in any of this.

The way I would handle it would be to look at the price.

If they are betting him off his literal RAGs and TGs numbers, I'd probably err on the side of trying to beat him and if they are betting him like a horse that's not getting any better and getting passed by other developing 3yos, I'd be more apt to at least use him.

[Robert Fischer]

Yea, he's a tough read.


The bottom line, at least for me, is that he seems to have both inherited and earned, the designation of top Baffert 3yo.

He's going to take money in his next start(s).
I don't know whether he's a star, but I can't bet against him. Done nothing wrong, and he significantly outran my expectations in the Derby. Baffert thought too highly of him to run him in the Belmont, which is another positive for him.

He's going to take up a 'key' part of my ticket, and he's going to do so while taking a bunch of money. It(him being a legit favorite) makes those races a little tougher for me.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

lol

In his case, it's still not clear to me whether he was a precocious 2yo that's not developing as fast as some of the other 3yos or whether his wide trips have masked some of the development.

The reason I say that is for both the Rebel and SA Derby I didn't think being wide was especially disadvantageous on those days. He would have been better off saving some ground, but I don't think those efforts were quite as good as let's say what Ragozin and TG show or what adjusting his Beyer and TF figures for ground loss would show. But they were still good efforts. His Derby trip was more problematical because of how extremely wide he was. I just can't be exact in any of this.

The way I would handle it would be to look at the price.

If they are betting him off his literal RAGs and TGs numbers, I'd probably err on the side of trying to beat him and if they are betting him like a horse that's not getting any better and getting passed by other developing 3yos, I'd be more apt to at least use him.

I think the key to using the figures from his wide trips is what kind of trips he gets moving on. The figure he earned with the ground loss included is what it is. There's no doubt to the extra ground he covered. The only question is is he a habitual wide trip horse (which I doubt) or will he get a better trip while earning the same adjusted figure but a better placing. Then there's also the improvement that usually comes with maturity or was he just precocious.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

I think the key to using the figures from his wide trips is what kind of trips he gets moving on. The figure he earned with the ground loss included is what it is. There's no doubt to the extra ground he covered. The only question is is he a habitual wide trip horse (which I doubt) or will he get a better trip while earning the same adjusted figure but a better placing. Then there's also the improvement that usually comes with maturity or was he just precocious.

It goes beyond that.

There are days when the outside paths seem to be a "little" better than the inside paths. It's not that the rail is dead. It's that horses in almost every race are making 3 and 4 wide moves with seemingly little impact on where they finish and how fast they run. In figure terms, imagine a track where paths 1-2 had a different track variant than paths 3-4 (or something like that).

It appeared to me that Game Winner caught a few tracks like that. So if you add in the full value of his ground loss, it might be too much.

Beyond that, it's easier for horses to run when they are wider in the same way it's easier to make a wide turn with your car. That offsets the ground loss a little also.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It goes beyond that.

There are days when the outside paths seem to be a "little" better than the inside paths. It's not that the rail is dead. It's that horses in almost every race are making 3 and 4 wide moves with seemingly little impact on where they finish and how fast they run. In figure terms, imagine a track where paths 1-2 had a different track variant than paths 3-4 (or something like that).

It appeared to me that Game Winner caught a few tracks like that. So if you add in the full value of his ground loss, it might be too much.

Beyond that, it's easier for horses to run when they are wider in the same way it's easier to make a wide turn with your car. That offsets the ground loss a little also.

True,
I have previously mentioned that some of the the disadvantage of of ground loss due to a wide trip can be mitigated somewhat by the fact that the effect of the more gradual effect of a wide turn somewhat makes up for the ground loss effect (that's why wide moves on Belmont's big turns are not quite as bad as on tracks with sharper turns). However this never totally takes away the the ground loss disadvantage.
Also true there may be times when the footing on wide paths nay be a bit better than on more inner ones but this is hard to determine. The best way to determine this is to see if adjusting for ground loss has explained a particular horse's figure rather than trying to calculate the speed of a given path. In the case of Game Winner, adjusting his figure for ground loss gives a better approximation of the slower figure he earns when he has had a wide trip and is a legitimate adjustment.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

In the case of Game Winner, adjusting his figure for ground loss gives a better approximation of the slower figure he earns when he has had a wide trip and is a legitimate adjustment.

It depends whose figures you are using and which race you are talking about.

That's kind of why I am still on the fence about him. Sheets players aside, IMO, it's very difficult to be precise about the impact of ground loss from day to day and track to track, but some figure makers build it in to their variant analysis as if it's an exact science and others don't look at it at all. So you almost never know exactly what you are looking at.

I know ballpark how fast he is.

I know how much ground loss occurred in each race.

I know ball park how I much I personally think the ground loss cost him in each race.

With all those ballparks, I'm still not sure whether he was a good 2yo that hasn't developed much at 3 or whether he's a bit better than that.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It depends whose figures you are using and which race you are talking about.

That's kind of why I am still on the fence about him. Sheets players aside, IMO, it's very difficult to be precise about the impact of ground loss from day to day and track to track, but some figure makers build it in to their variant analysis as if it's an exact science and others don't look at it at all. So you almost never know exactly what you are looking at.

I know ballpark how fast he is.

I know how much ground loss occurred in each race.

I know ball park how I much I personally think the ground loss cost him in each race.

With all those ballparks, I'm still not sure whether he was a good 2yo that hasn't developed much at 3 or whether he's a bit better than that.

Roadster certainly hasn't flattered him with his efforts since the Santa Anita Derby.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Roadster certainly hasn't flattered him with his efforts since the Santa Anita Derby.

Yeah. I thought Game Winner was better than Roadster in the SA Derby, but that was still a disappointing effort.

Mucho Gusto is OK. I made the rail dead at Sunland in his loss that day and his only other loss was to Improbable. I guess since it's Baffert people keep waiting for 1 or more of them to explode forward, but none of them have so far.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

Roadster certainly hasn't flattered him with his efforts since the Santa Anita Derby.

That's only if assuming that Roadster's form hasn't gone south since then. Horses decline all the time. It doesn't take away from Game Winner's SA Derby performance.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

That's only if assuming that Roadster's form hasn't gone south since then. Horses decline all the time. It doesn't take away from Game Winner's SA Derby performance.

The entire race has turned into a bit of an eyesore and it was pretty slow IMO in the first place. In seven subsequent starts Roadster's so so runner up finish in the Affirmed and More Ice's weak third in the Cal Derby are the only horses to even hit the board. I think Game Winner's performance that day is being a bit overrated based on the others in the field.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

The entire race has turned into a bit of an eyesore and it was pretty slow IMO in the first place. In seven subsequent starts Roadster's so so runner up finish in the Affirmed and More Ice's weak third in the Cal Derby are the only horses to even hit the board. I think Game Winner's performance that day is being a bit overrated based on the others in the field.

Agree with that. Game Winner appeared to have run the top performance (although Roadster had finished a literal 1st), but there's little doubt that the 2019 Santa Anita Derby was sub par.

I believe that TimeformUS got the race right. Roadster 113 , Game Winner 115.

Santa Anita Derby this year doesn't tickle the fancy or move anyone into consideration of a division leader horse. And although very likely somewhat best that day, Game Winner didn't exactly even run huge in the Santa Anita Derby.

Going into the Kentucky Derby I tossed Roadster, and I leaned against Game Winner. I was very surprised with Game Winner's strong performance in the Derby.



*and Tossing Roadster again, in the Affirmed Sunday, was a big part of my hitting that Mandatory Payout Rainbow-6.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Agree with that. Game Winner appeared to have run the top performance (although Roadster had finished a literal 1st), but there's little doubt that the 2019 Santa Anita Derby was sub par.

I believe that TimeformUS got the race right. Roadster 113 , Game Winner 115.

Santa Anita Derby this year doesn't tickle the fancy or move anyone into consideration of a division leader horse. And although very likely somewhat best that day, Game Winner didn't exactly even run huge in the Santa Anita Derby.

Going into the Kentucky Derby I tossed Roadster, and I leaned against Game Winner. I was very surprised with Game Winner's strong performance in the Derby.

I'm not surprised with Game Winner's actual performances in both the SA Derby and KY Derby in keeping with his previous superior performances if one considers his actual real ground loss in these races. We now have to see what those big races took out of him when he returns.