Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990
Just because your last sentence is true, it does not preclude Bolt and Justify from being standouts in this race... someone capable of putting together those first two intelligent paragraphs (even though I somewhat disagree with them) should not also be capable of writing the third paragraph.
|
Neither Bolt D'Oro, nor Solimini have indicated that they are improving as the races get longer, unless you go solely by figs. This race is setting up to have a race shape very like 2005. They don't strike me the two horses to stay the longest, or come running late.
My interest in figs is almost purely to gage which horses are in the "in crowd" and which are not. Who is and who isn't has, since the advent of internet forums, 9 times out of 10 been due to irrational exerburence. I don't determine what I think about any horse based on this, but I do use it as a heaping barrel of salt to weed through what everyone is saying.
The outcome of derby is more often than not, in retrospect, not that surprising. There are Mine That Birds, but they a rare. When odd outcomes happen it is usually due to an oddly run race and unforeseeable events or weather.
In a race with a few true speed horses, pick the most dogged speed with the most likely chance of hanging on, the most nimble and dogged 2nd flighter, and then toss in a pure closer, and box them. Showy speed is often not very dogged.
In a race of equally matched speed, pick the most dogged speed likely to stay the longest, the most nimble and dogged 2nd flighter, and then toss in a pure closer. And box them.
You might pick the wrong ones, but the three types of horses that cross the line will almost always fit the pattern, and more often than not make the most sense after the fact.
Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Curlin made sense.
Afleet Alex made sense, breaking down the speed in 2005 was hard, none really showed fight in their prior races, except Wilko, who was my choice (also because of the band). Giaccomo made sense too in retrospect, there wasn't really any other closer.
I had token win bets on him and Closing Argument because of their odds, but I didn't have them anywhere else.
Nyquist and Exagerator made sense. Gunrunner bucked the pattern, but history has proved why. They were the only two horses I liked and I bet them in a straight exacta, Nyquist over Exagerator. It wasn't hard, I don't claim superpowers, but it was the only thing that made sense. It didn't make me rich, but it was better than a kick in the butt.
I stay away from Johnny Jump out of Nowheres. So far I've done okay with that. I also stay away from Dear John's on the Skids. So far I've done okay with that. I stay away from the Umpteenth Time is the Charmers. So far I've done okay with that. And starting a couple of years ago, I stay away from Is it Friday Yeters, this one has been very promising so far.
