The Gray Trifecta

[winningponies]

Those who use the age-old handicapping method of picking by color were well rewarded in the 2016 Belmont Stakes, as the top 3 finishers Creator, Destin and Lani are all gray. The $1 Trifecta paid a whopping $1,375.

We were asked how often this phenomenon occurs. Since 2010 in Thoroughbred racing in the US and Canada it happens at an average rate of once per 1,470 races. At Belmont specifically? Once per 2,838 races.

Here's a blog post which goes into further detail if you are curious.

[therussmeister]

How often does it happen in races with at least three gray horses?

[Arapola]

Originally Posted by winningponies

Those who use the age-old handicapping method of picking by color were well rewarded in the 2016 Belmont Stakes, as the top 3 finishers Creator, Destin and Lani are all gray. The $1 Trifecta paid a whopping $1,375.

We were asked how often this phenomenon occurs. Since 2010 in Thoroughbred racing in the US and Canada it happens at an average rate of once per 1,470 races. At Belmont specifically? Once per 2,838 races.

Here's a blog post which goes into further detail if you are curious.

You left out the Generazio's Gray Exacta @$412.50 in the 6th Race!!!!!!!!!!

[MONEY]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

How often does it happen in races with at least three gray horses?

You must mean with only 3 gray horses.
Yesterday's Belmont had 5 grays.

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think he meant that if you eliminate the races where it would be impossible to occur, the rate might be a lot higher.

[winningponies]

Originally Posted by Arapola

You left out the Generazio's Gray Exacta @$412.50 in the 6th Race!!!!!!!!!!

We didn't analyze Exactas, but hitting a gray exacta with the same trainer is quite a score!

[winningponies]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

How often does it happen in races with at least three gray horses?

Yea in that case the rate is much higher since it's impossible in cases < 3. In all races with 3+ grays, it occurs on average once per 42 races. At Belmont, it occurs once per 72 races.

Good question - will add this info to the blog.

[Tom]

Finger Lakes used to card a race for gray horses only.
Top three finishers were gray.

[Shemp Howard]

When the Meadowlands raced at night they
used to feature the Gray Ghost Handicap around All Hallows Eve.

If memory serves me correct, the last dozen or so winners were all gray.

[winningponies]

Here's a neat newspaper article from 1907 about a Grey Ghost Handicap run in California.

https://news.google.com/newspapers?n...,2233689&hl=en

[ultracapper]

I had been playing the races all of 3 weeks back in June 1982 when this girl I was with, who I ended up marrying, and I put in $5 each and did a grey horse exacta box that paid $2300+. I told her who I liked, she told me who she liked, I said they were both grey, she said it's gonna be all grey, I said lets box them, and BANG.

Maybe the best story of my track life because I'm still married to her.