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Old 12-05-2022, 12:28 PM   #61
Spalding No!
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I didn't say that all 3 year old races don't count. I don't think the preps should be Grade 1's There are too many of them in a short period of time that they are watered down.
None of that means that the horses that run in those non-approved Grade 1s aren't quality horses.

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Zandon didn't beat anybody in the Bluegrass.
You keep saying that, but the best horse in there besides Zandon (Smile Happy) only made 1 start post-Blue Grass and if he comes back could prove to be a quality horse.

That aside, the also-rans out of the Blue Grass came back to account for 6 stakes wins and 2 stakes-placings the rest of the year.

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You also said he beat Mo Donegal, Cyberknife and Taiba but he also lost to them and they actually won races in better fields than Zandon's maiden win or Bluegrass win. Same goes for White Abbario.
You're proving my point here. You just admitted Zandon was competitive with 3 of the top 3yos of the crop. Ergo, he's a quality horse. I never said he beat those horses in every start. But my guess is that if Mo Donegal, Cyberknife, and/or Taiba had shown up for the Cigar Mile their wouldn't be a debate here.

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Not sure what your point is about Cody's Wish and Elite Power are. Cody's Wish went 6 for 7 this year with 2 Grade 1's and a Grade 3 and broke his maiden last year. Elite Power went 5 for 6 and won a Grade 2 and Grade 1.
There are 2 points.

(1) The fact that the much-maligned Cigar Mile starters all were running in graded stakes races long before Cody's Wish or Elite Power came on the scene and are still competitive in top races afterwards is a testament to their consistent quality.

(2) Hold Cody's Wish and Elite Power to your same 'who did they beat' standards and they, too, have not done much more than the Cigar Mile horses. Both defeated a beat-up Jackie's Warrior who failed as heavy favorite in 3 straight BCs to trump both Groovy and Housebuster as their main claim to fame. Otherwise, Cody's Wish just edged Cyberknife and some of the same 3yos Zandon and White Abbario were beating (Slow Down Andy, Simplification). Beyond Jackie's Warrior, Elite Power beat up on the same horses Get Her Number was competing with all year in CA.

And while we are discussing those 2 BC wins, how about paying some lip-service to the dilution that occurs when the BC Dirt Mile and BC Sprint are run on the same card? Talk about watered-down races...

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The Pacific Classic had 3 Grade 1 winners Maker's Mark Mile had 4 Grade 1 winners. The Met Mile had 4 Grade 1 winners. There could be more
Then I guess the 2022 Cigar Mile was in some good company?
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Old 12-05-2022, 04:24 PM   #62
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turned out to be a good betting race this year, if you were willing to key Mind Control and leave room for Zandon to run off an exacta or tri.
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Old 12-05-2022, 04:36 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
None of that means that the horses that run in those non-approved Grade 1s aren't quality horses.


You keep saying that, but the best horse in there besides Zandon (Smile Happy) only made 1 start post-Blue Grass and if he comes back could prove to be a quality horse.

That aside, the also-rans out of the Blue Grass came back to account for 6 stakes wins and 2 stakes-placings the rest of the year.


You're proving my point here. You just admitted Zandon was competitive with 3 of the top 3yos of the crop. Ergo, he's a quality horse. I never said he beat those horses in every start. But my guess is that if Mo Donegal, Cyberknife, and/or Taiba had shown up for the Cigar Mile their wouldn't be a debate here.


There are 2 points.

(1) The fact that the much-maligned Cigar Mile starters all were running in graded stakes races long before Cody's Wish or Elite Power came on the scene and are still competitive in top races afterwards is a testament to their consistent quality.

(2) Hold Cody's Wish and Elite Power to your same 'who did they beat' standards and they, too, have not done much more than the Cigar Mile horses. Both defeated a beat-up Jackie's Warrior who failed as heavy favorite in 3 straight BCs to trump both Groovy and Housebuster as their main claim to fame. Otherwise, Cody's Wish just edged Cyberknife and some of the same 3yos Zandon and White Abbario were beating (Slow Down Andy, Simplification). Beyond Jackie's Warrior, Elite Power beat up on the same horses Get Her Number was competing with all year in CA.

And while we are discussing those 2 BC wins, how about paying some lip-service to the dilution that occurs when the BC Dirt Mile and BC Sprint are run on the same card? Talk about watered-down races...


Then I guess the 2022 Cigar Mile was in some good company?
I never said Zandon wasn't a quality horse I just don't think he's grade 1 caliber. I would agree with you that had those other 3 run it would have been a quality field. Mo Donegal won the Belmont, Cyberknife won the Haskell and Taiba won the Penn Derby. Zandon hasn't won anything since the Bluegrass. Winning is important when talking about how good a horse is, isn't it? I would say Jackie's Warrior is or was a high quality horse. He had 4 Grade 1 wins so to to degrade Cody's Wish and Elite Power for beating him is pretty ridiculous. Cody's Wish also beat Gunite a Grade 1 Winner and Elite Power also beat Grade 1 winners Kimari, America Theorem and Aloha West and CZ Rocket who finished 2nd twice in the BC sprint . I would say the BC sprint had a better field than the Cigar Mile The Dirt Mile usually has one standout . Point being Zandon doesn't win. Elite Power and Cody's Wish do. Winners of restricted 3 year old Grade 1 races don't mean the horse is of Grade 1 quality like Mine that Bird, Rich Strike, Da'Tara, Sarava and Sir Winston just to name a few

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Old 12-05-2022, 04:36 PM   #64
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All sources handle was down 59% from last years Cigar Mile Day.

Obviously the weather played a part this year, but the product that is being put out there leaves a lot to be desired.

People are turned off by 5 and 6 horse stake fields where CAW teams are cutting a chunk into their exotic payouts. Combine that with high takeout and bettors are taking their money elsewhere. Whether that be to sports betting or tracks will full fields like Turfway.
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Old 12-05-2022, 05:06 PM   #65
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There was over $2.3 million bet into a Pick-6 Carryover on the 2021 Cigar Mile card. There were also 84 betting interests as opposed to 65 in 2022. Still the drop is severe, but the weather certainly had a lot to do with that. A better comparison would be 2020. In 2020, the weather was also miserable, and the track was sloppy. There were 78 betting interests or 20% more than 2022. Handle in 2020 was $11,645,229. Handle in 2022 was $10,891,066, or less than 7% lower than a comparable weather day with 20% more betting interests.

To say we are happy with numbers like that would be silly, but when you look at realistic comparisons, the numbers make a lot more sense. The good thing about optimal conditions is they create great numbers. The bad news is they set the bar, often, too high.
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Old 12-05-2022, 06:01 PM   #66
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There was over $2.3 million bet into a Pick-6 Carryover on the 2021 Cigar Mile card. There were also 84 betting interests as opposed to 65 in 2022. Still the drop is severe, but the weather certainly had a lot to do with that. A better comparison would be 2020. In 2020, the weather was also miserable, and the track was sloppy. There were 78 betting interests or 20% more than 2022. Handle in 2020 was $11,645,229. Handle in 2022 was $10,891,066, or less than 7% lower than a comparable weather day with 20% more betting interests.

To say we are happy with numbers like that would be silly, but when you look at realistic comparisons, the numbers make a lot more sense. The good thing about optimal conditions is they create great numbers. The bad news is they set the bar, often, too high.
Is that more about the handle at track, meaning customers at Aqueduct or horseplayers not liking the sloppy conditions and betting less?
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Old 12-05-2022, 06:17 PM   #67
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I cut my bet in half on Mind Control when I saw the track came up sloppy. It definitely amps up the randomness in the game IMO. Even Zandon, how confident can anyone be there when Maggie said he's running on a partial shoe, over that kind of track. It's anyone's guess right? Off the board. I don't think either one ran their top race, it's just Mind Control putting out enough on guts and grit during that stretch run while giving weight. If I could get 5-2 or 3-1 on horses like that consistently day in and day out I'd have to come out of semi-retirement.
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Old 12-05-2022, 06:50 PM   #68
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Make that 70 betting interests, not 65, in 2022. Sorry.
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Old 12-06-2022, 08:46 AM   #69
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whats next for Zandon?

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Old 12-06-2022, 05:22 PM   #70
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whats next for Zandon?
The pace was a crawl. He had very little chance the way it played out. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered but I think he ran better than it looked.
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Old 12-06-2022, 06:21 PM   #71
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The pace was a crawl. He had very little chance the way it played out. Maybe it wouldn't have mattered but I think he ran better than it looked.
He's not fast enough to stay with the fastest horses early or to outkick the quality closers with better position.

That's an elaborate way of saying he's not that good.

I'd drop him into a softer spot, try to get a win, and hope that helps him take a step forward, but I agree the way it developed was tough on him.
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Old 12-06-2022, 07:18 PM   #72
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He regressed to his worst number since his debut on my numbers. I always lean against running three year olds that were pointed to peak in the derby and are still running this late in the year. Yes you may get another big effort but then recovery from that is going to be begging for a track-sour four year old. I'd be looking for an extended layoff of 4-5 months and then see what he comes back with next year. He should win first or second race off the layoff but if not then maybe blinkers would be worth a try.
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Old 12-12-2022, 04:40 PM   #73
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Where is the love for Mind Control, anyway?

A G1 winner at 2 and 3, going out with a G1 win at age 6.
Race record 29-12-3-6.

So many complain about how more horses should be like him, but when we have one like him, there's more complaining.
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