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Old 08-18-2022, 02:51 PM   #16
Dave Schwartz
 
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I have a list of trouble words and I use that to note trouble trips. But right now, these are just notes for a deep dive on the race, not to store the data.
I think the challenge would be phrases vs. words. It is really difficult to build reliability without human intervention.

What got me on the path was the "eased" concept because there are certainly metrics based upon beaten lengths that could simulate that or similar.
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Old 08-18-2022, 05:05 PM   #17
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I think the challenge would be phrases vs. words. It is really difficult to build reliability without human intervention.

What got me on the path was the "eased" concept because there are certainly metrics based upon beaten lengths that could simulate that or similar.
I am satisfied with what I get from words when I use the full comments... the abbreviated comments often have too many abbreviated words.
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Old 08-19-2022, 12:31 PM   #18
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A few years ago, I did a study and the comments "hit gate" or "broke through gate" were automatic excuses. It was a several year study.
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Old 08-19-2022, 02:07 PM   #19
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I'm not great on using comments and programming.

the general principles? - you got things like 'eased' = strong negatives, where you look for a diamond in the rough because they don't take money.

You have 'trouble' comments like 'hit gate', where you look whether the trouble placed them relative to the race flow/shape, and relative to their usual style.

nothing ground breaking. You build and flag 'models' and then you want to see if something significant is brewing, and that you have a value beyond a margin for safety and aren't trading off a bunch of significant good and bad models.
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Old 08-19-2022, 02:17 PM   #20
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A few years ago, I did a study and the comments "hit gate" or "broke through gate" were automatic excuses. It was a several year study.
It would seem like "hit gate" could be a potential negative for a young, inexperienced horse and more of an excuse for a tried and true veteran.
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Old 08-19-2022, 05:18 PM   #21
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Saratoga 7th race

Neon Summer trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Luis Saez is going off in the 7th today. Was stopped, eased, vanned last out at Saratoga. Let's see what happens. Trying to keep an open mind


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Old 08-19-2022, 05:25 PM   #22
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2 works since that race, I wouldn't worry about her fitness, just her class.
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Old 08-19-2022, 06:10 PM   #23
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A few years ago, I did a study and the comments "hit gate" or "broke through gate" were automatic excuses. It was a several year study.



I do not remember seeing a horse break thru the gate and ever do well. I think it is wise to excuse these efforts.

In fact, I have very seldom, if ever, seen any horse refusing to load go on to have a good race. I think you are correct that trouble at the gate is most definitely a valid reason to find a different race to judge the horse.

I am having a hard time with idea that a horse that is pulled up or eased, is going to come back in any kind of reasonable time at the same level though.
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Old 08-25-2022, 02:03 PM   #24
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Near impossible unless you are "in" with the track vet as to what prompted the easement.
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Old 08-25-2022, 03:39 PM   #25
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This shouldn't be a difficult query for a database once you define eased. Could be the comment, could be # of lengths, etc.
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Old 08-25-2022, 04:07 PM   #26
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I do not remember seeing a horse break thru the gate and ever do well. I think it is wise to excuse these efforts.

In fact, I have very seldom, if ever, seen any horse refusing to load go on to have a good race. I think you are correct that trouble at the gate is most definitely a valid reason to find a different race to judge the horse.

I am having a hard time with idea that a horse that is pulled up or eased, is going to come back in any kind of reasonable time at the same level though.
Many years ago at Santa Anita, I bet in a Maiden Race a horse that broke thru the gate after loading. I have a policy to NEVER change or get refunded a ticket that I have for any reason, including a mistake by a teller or a mistake that I made. That horse paid $143.00.

I realize that when they break thru the gate that is never a good sign, but my policy rewarded me. That incidentally, is the largest win price I ever hit.
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Old 08-27-2022, 05:57 AM   #27
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this angle is probably the best reason to read a racing form... i will say that if you play this angle only, you will be a winner. another decent one is rider fell off the horse, but nowhere near as good as eased and vanned off.
Does anybody know of any software that you can just scan for "lost rider"? I'll buy it right now. There's one added thing to search for when you see "lost rider". You must watch the replay and see how the horse ran. Usually they either run with the pack, or bring up the rear, but when that horse actually runs "it's race", such as a stalker stalking, and then firing turning for home, it's a real powerful play if the trainer brings it back to conditions it belongs. And the beauty of it is, few punters watch the replay, and 10 times that many see it as a negative. Check out a horse named Gerlachs. That's the one I can remember off the top of my head, but I've hit 2 or 3 others in the past year or so, one paid $84. Gerlachs paid low $20s. Look at Gerlachs pps. Watch the race when the jock fell off. That's what you're looking for.
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Old 08-27-2022, 11:39 AM   #28
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Does anybody know of any software that you can just scan for "lost rider"? I'll buy it right now. There's one added thing to search for when you see "lost rider". You must watch the replay and see how the horse ran. Usually they either run with the pack, or bring up the rear, but when that horse actually runs "it's race", such as a stalker stalking, and then firing turning for home, it's a real powerful play if the trainer brings it back to conditions it belongs. And the beauty of it is, few punters watch the replay, and 10 times that many see it as a negative. Check out a horse named Gerlachs. That's the one I can remember off the top of my head, but I've hit 2 or 3 others in the past year or so, one paid $84. Gerlachs paid low $20s. Look at Gerlachs pps. Watch the race when the jock fell off. That's what you're looking for.
What data are you using?
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Old 08-27-2022, 01:48 PM   #29
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Does anybody know of any software that you can just scan for "lost rider"? I'll buy it right now. There's one added thing to search for when you see "lost rider". You must watch the replay and see how the horse ran. Usually they either run with the pack, or bring up the rear, but when that horse actually runs "it's race", such as a stalker stalking, and then firing turning for home, it's a real powerful play if the trainer brings it back to conditions it belongs. And the beauty of it is, few punters watch the replay, and 10 times that many see it as a negative. Check out a horse named Gerlachs. That's the one I can remember off the top of my head, but I've hit 2 or 3 others in the past year or so, one paid $84. Gerlachs paid low $20s. Look at Gerlachs pps. Watch the race when the jock fell off. That's what you're looking for.
I accept your offer and will add it to my new software.

Seriously.
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Old 08-27-2022, 02:59 PM   #30
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What data are you using?
I made that post at 3am so I know I was a bit bold with the "I'll buy it right now" statement in my rummy condition, as I'm certain the data to input into the software is the key, and the true expense. I've never even thought of purchasing software and doing a search like that until early this morning. I saw Dave replied also, so I would guess whatever data provider he uses would do the trick. I'm certainly not scanning through hundreds of charts at the end of each day to find "lost rider" comments.

BTW, Fulton Street in the 5th at GP is one I wouldn't play. After losing the jock, he did make a nice far turn move, but then straightening for home he went very wide and finished mid-pack, closer to the outer than inner rail. Really, I can't think of a better example than the Gerlach's one that I mentioned in my OP. And as rare as it happens, the previous winners I've found have all finished their riderless race pretty much the same way, as if the jockey were hardly necessary.
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