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Old 09-19-2021, 12:20 PM   #1
PIC6SIX
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Cool BEST & WORST RACE CONDITIONS

What race conditions do you most favor and which do you mostly avoid. Age, distance, claiming, stakes, dirt, turf etc. are some of the factors to be considered.
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Old 09-19-2021, 01:20 PM   #2
5thstreetpicks
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your money races are clm and Alw and only dirt races because all figs stand up ...
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Old 09-19-2021, 07:45 PM   #3
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I prefer the claiming and allowance races for older horses at 6 and 6.5 furlongs. And I totally avoid any race with younger horses who have only a few running lines in their past-performances.
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Old 09-19-2021, 08:51 PM   #4
v j stauffer
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I have no reason to explain it. But I have a HUGE ROI in turf sprints.

Really looking forward to the return of 6 1/2 down the hill at Santa Anita.

LOVE capping those.
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Old 09-19-2021, 09:32 PM   #5
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Best For Handicapping:
Races with horses that have at least 1 running line that includes Beyer/Bris along with speed rating and track variant (DRF), good quality horses in dirt race any distance mixed in with a false fav, Allowance races, Turf races run between 5F-1 1/2 miles again with good quality and false fav

Worst For Handicapping:
Races with horses that have no running lines or at least 1 running line+ without the info I need (beyer/bris speed figure,speed rating and track variant), cheap races no matter the class (but most cheap claimers), races with a heavy favourite so the race offers no value whatsoever, race full of contenders it’s hard to Handicap at all
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Last edited by CheckMark; 09-19-2021 at 09:33 PM.
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Old 09-19-2021, 11:34 PM   #6
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When it is par-building time, the most difficult race type is any race with starter conditions. That includes starter allowance, handicaps, and anything else with such conditions.

The reasoning is that starter races are extremely dependent upon the horses "on the grounds" that manage to qualify in a given season.

That makes for almost no continuity from one year to the next.

HOWEVER...
If you are a player that really follows a given track/circuit to the point where you know (and track) the horses and are able to cite who the competition is in a certain class level (before there is a race even carded) you could really make out in this arena.

This could also apply to NWL claiming conditions and OC.
But it takes work.
The litmus test for whether or not you are that guy is, do you look at a race and ask, "[trainer name] has a horse that should fit in this race. Why isn't he entered?"

Way too much work for me.
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Old 09-20-2021, 12:11 PM   #7
Mick
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2 year old dirt sprint races are my bred and butter today, this is my first year real handicapping and since experienced gamblers avoid these races, I do a lot of work and feel I have an advantage.

In a couple of years, this knowledge will pay off with horses that I know more deeply. Then I prefer to go with 7F or 1M races.
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:40 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
I have no reason to explain it. But I have a HUGE ROI in turf sprints.

Really looking forward to the return of 6 1/2 down the hill at Santa Anita.

LOVE capping those.
v_j...

Would you be willing to share at some point some of your thinking on these? I've found these to be the most unpredictable races. Public odds aren't great at predicting these either. Would really appreciate your insights as these races are beginning to be carded much more frequently at my track. Thanks!
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