To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by traynor

What possible motivation would they have to do such a thing?

Charity , love of fellow man, ego, revenge against partners that cheated them?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by traynor

What possible motivation would they have to do such a thing?

Because 18 years is a long dry spell.

And they are human.

There's your motivation. As old as time itself.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

lol. Well, really, if they do exist they are pros who have no interest or reason to share their wealth. So like bigfoot, they stay hidden.

I also suspect that what they do, is not achievable by a normal player. Probably boring too. Doubt any of them make 'picks' at all.

Not according to Traynor.

And posting picks for a few hundred races isn't going to reveal their method, no matter what silly person tries to tell you about reverse engineering.

They have a MUCH BETTER chance of their play being shadowed by their ADW (or a rogue employee) then they ever do of having their method reverse engineered by posting plays here.

[AltonKelsey]

I have to disagree about the reverse engineer. I believe I know what many of them do , and if they posted their plays you would easily figure it out.

This isn't rocket science.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I have to disagree about the reverse engineer. I believe I know what many of them do , and if they posted their plays you would easily figure it out.

This isn't rocket science.

Of course, it may just be that getting a cyberspace pat on the head (or whatever) doesn't give them the warm fuzzies that it seems to give others. Have you ever done any study of the Hawthorne Effect?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by traynor

Of course, it may just be that getting a cyberspace pat on the head (or whatever) doesn't give them the warm fuzzies that it seems to give others. Have you ever done any study of the Hawthorne Effect?

"It is the process where human subjects of an experiment change their behavior, simply because they are being studied".

And the point you'd like to make Traynor, is ________?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

lol. Well, really, if they do exist they are pros who have no interest or reason to share their wealth. So like bigfoot, they stay hidden.

Yes, the professional horseplayers shun attention...and they go to great lengths to disguise how profitable they are. They could easily afford brand new luxury vehicles...but they insist on driving old rusty cars...with the bumpers supported by coat-hanger wire. And, although they could easily feast on filet mignon and lobster on a daily basis...they are mostly seen eating ravioli out of a can...with plastic forks. It's their way of keeping smart competition away...so they could keep the horse-betting profits to themselves as much as they can.

And, who can blame them...when there are all these PhD-types around, with the means to wager $200,000 on a single race?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by traynor

Of course, it may just be that getting a cyberspace pat on the head (or whatever) doesn't give them the warm fuzzies that it seems to give others. Have you ever done any study of the Hawthorne Effect?

Figure out my play then....you have 900+ examples starting in early April in the Selections section.

Then post my EXACT method of what I am doing on the board for all to see. I challenge both you and/or Alton to do this...of course you'll tell me you don't really care and don't want to waste your time...in other words...can't do it so easily.

[o_crunk]

Almost all of the public information points to the teams and whales being ROI+ over long stretches *after* rebates through tote/parimutuel. I tend to believe that than someone making *way* more than 10% on win bets over the course of thousands of races.

I'm no statistical wiz and I don't have doctorate in anything. But I know horses and I know how to build a fair value line. I also have a good idea for how to build an expected off line. I compare the two and focus on the exchange in NJ. On a good day there might be a 100 races offered, based on a comparison of the fair value versus expected starting price, there might be just a handful of plays on any given day. If you want to open your betting to horses that aren't in your top 4 fair value, there's a lot more plays but these are horses who aren't going to be winning a whole lot of races and you need to be precise a not insignificant amount of time with your line, as the strike percentages matter more.

One other thing...

Just using TFUS/CJ speed and pace as an input and creating a line, it's rare that I get horses where the fair line is going be say 7/5. Even rarer where it's less. I don't know how people come up with rational lines on horse races where a horse is going to win 50% of the time. That just can't be good long term for your play or your lines.

Maybe that's one of my downfalls for not having a lot of plays from a daily menu on the exchange. But I'd rather be assured that my automation is producing fair prices over the course of time than cut it too close on fair value and shave potential ROI down by inflating strike.

[sour grapes]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Yes, the professional horseplayers shun attention...and they go to great lengths to disguise how profitable they are. They could easily afford brand new luxury vehicles...but they insist on driving old rusty cars...with the bumpers supported by coat-hanger wire. And, although they could easily feast on filet mignon and lobster on a daily basis...they are mostly seen eating ravioli out of a can...with plastic forks. It's their way of keeping smart competition away...so they could keep the horse-betting profits to themselves as much as they can.

And, who can blame them...when there are all these PhD-types around, with the means to wager $200,000 on a single race?

now thats funny,but on this board we have the 10 guys claiming they make a living on the horses with no proof shown except their claims.Thats a much higher percentage than the .05 % that supposedly beat the horses and than they dont understand why the recreational player continues to come back if they are not making money like the pros,maybe cause they are having fun and losing less than these so called pros.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by traynor

Of course, it may just be that getting a cyberspace pat on the head (or whatever) doesn't give them the warm fuzzies that it seems to give others. Have you ever done any study of the Hawthorne Effect?

More likely , those that have winning scalable methods , aren't going to respond to begging, so the 'dare ya to prove it' crowd comes out. Can't really blame them , but that won't work either.

Also, I don't think too many here claim to make a living betting horses.

[PaceAdvantage]

I know, there are no winning horseplayers out there who also like to get their ego stroked by bringing proof of success.

I mean, just look at Traynor...

And he has never proved a thing.

Same with Cratos...all big talk, and zero action, but they continue to claim that a winning player wouldn't have that type of personality...

You guys are a laugh riot sometimes.

[AltonKelsey]

That's true, you rarely see proof of anything.

My contention is, that unless you are trolling for a bankroll, or trying to sell something, there is limited reason to reveal anything.

The more successful you are betting horses , the less likely it is you'll be talking about it.

[Tom]

It is easy to be a winning pro at this game.
Just do it online using a fake name.
You can toss any BS you want and hope someone buys it.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

"It is the process where human subjects of an experiment change their behavior, simply because they are being studied".

And the point you'd like to make Traynor, is ________?

Some thrive on the attention of others. One could almost say they seem to feed on it. Withhold it, they are more highly motivated to do that which they believe will result in the attention, or to engage in negative behavior as an alternative method to gain the attention. On the other hand, some don't really care--they get no such rewards from the attention.