To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by EasyGoer89

I think the difference between computer number guys vs replay guys is this. If your life depends on making one pick and winning one race, you really need to see the replay of the horse that has your life hanging in the balance.

BUT, if you don't need one race to live and you are counting on consistent results that takes the visual emotion out of the equation, not watching The replays is a good idea since a replay can mean one thing one day and the same exact replay might have different meaning to the watcher depending on mindset, mood and a bevy of different human factors and emotions.

No wrong way to do things If it's working.

The real question lies into what extend the replay observations will be reflected in the market.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Because I have altered who I bet to win in the last 2 years my average mutual has risen by 30%, while my hit rate has remained practically unchanged from 16 year norms. It is profitable. But it can be grinding at times. And that is where I think the rub is for most players. Boredom. It sure feels good to get there faster via the exotics. For me I just don't see that many races with exotics potential. I have become fond of playing P3-4 wagers but rarely vertical exotics. Blasting off on $25-40 exactas is still a big play but trifectas/superfectas I just see too many races where the odds on my contenders are in line with the tote and those combinations get crushed. I bet less exotics races but I bet more on the ones I do play and go for the kill. So that leads me back to win play. When I play these days it's semi high volume. Passing many races because of odds I am only going to get x amount of plays. So,pleased to have a 12.20 avg mutual. That is enough reward without the frustration of bust outs. I like getting there faster but this is the starting point.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by pandy

I think we have to assume that the majority of horseplayers aren't that good at handicapping or betting, or both. Some odds on favorites are so obviously flawed yet people bet them, hard to fathom.

Darin Zoccali has an article about betting on drf today. The main profit he made on this today came from exotic wagers. As Pace alluded to, if you want to make any sort of meaningful money from betting horses, it's going to be very tough to do betting to win.


http://www.drf.com/news/zoccali-trus...ping-game-bust

I started with Beyer's Winning Horseplayer back in 1996 when I started playing. I learned exotics first and after a few years learning realized in 2001 after winning all year that I could do some damage. Over the next 10 years I realized I squandered much money by NOT betting to win. It was stupid. One day in particular at Beulah I had winners at 4-1, 8-1,15-1, 16-1 and I didn't make much money as I got blown out of exotics left and right. So I started splitting bet loyalties. That one day opened my eyes. And while my exotics cash flow can have big swings from year to year my win % and average mutual remained steady(28% and 9.40). The last 2 years the mutual went up to 11.00 then 12.00.

But my point is Pandy this should not be an either/or situation. I think that is ridiculous. Why the philosophical war between players? Plus I don't think all means of wagering can be lumped in together as win or exotics. I have about 6 different approaches that make money. This year so far I have been mediocre with the exotics whereas last year I was solid. The win bets and high volume win bets on ratings bias plays have been steady. I think is foundational without being the resurrection. I've heard more than once on here the swinging for the fencers having 10% ROI's. That is absurd. Anyway I backed myself into a corner before I bet to win. Glad I did. My patience in exotics because of this reality makes my exotics play more efficient and focused.

[pandy]

Pace was talking about the reality of making serious money betting to win. I wouldn't say that you can't show a profit betting to win, or that win bets aren't good hedge bets, but, if someone wants to win $50,000 or more a year betting horses, that is going to be almost impossible betting only to win. I've never met anyone who has done it.

[sour grapes]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

I cannot see where the handicapping enjoyment (!) is coming from!

Of course I understand the fact that you do not have the necessary skills to ramp up your betting; this is the fact with the vast majority of bettors who eventually realized that the game is "unbeatable" and there is nothing surprising with it.

Still, I am really puzzled when people keep on talking about the "enjoyment" they are getting by following the races! Personally, if it was not for betting, I would never pay any attention to horse racing and spend even a minute of time thinking about it.

yea ok ,i get it your a probut some people like the action and winning and losing is just a matter of keeping score.Your condescending attitude towards recereational players is snobbish,in fact your probably a loner at the track where no one really wants to deal with your elitism.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by pandy

Pace was talking about the reality of making serious money betting to win. I wouldn't say that you can't show a profit betting to win, or that win bets aren't good hedge bets, but, if someone wants to win $50,000 or more a year betting horses, that is going to be almost impossible betting only to win. I've never met anyone who has done it.

I encountered half a dozen doing exactly that in a single graduate class in predictive analytics at the university I attended 10 years ago. Depends where you hang out, and who you hang out with.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I started with Beyer's Winning Horseplayer back in 1996 when I started playing. I learned exotics first and after a few years learning realized in 2001 after winning all year that I could do some damage. Over the next 10 years I realized I squandered much money by NOT betting to win. It was stupid. One day in particular at Beulah I had winners at 4-1, 8-1,15-1, 16-1 and I didn't make much money as I got blown out of exotics left and right. So I started splitting bet loyalties. That one day opened my eyes. And while my exotics cash flow can have big swings from year to year my win % and average mutual remained steady(28% and 9.40). The last 2 years the mutual went up to 11.00 then 12.00.

But my point is Pandy this should not be an either/or situation. I think that is ridiculous. Why the philosophical war between players? Plus I don't think all means of wagering can be lumped in together as win or exotics. I have about 6 different approaches that make money. This year so far I have been mediocre with the exotics whereas last year I was solid. The win bets and high volume win bets on ratings bias plays have been steady. I think is foundational without being the resurrection. I've heard more than once on here the swinging for the fencers having 10% ROI's. That is absurd. Anyway I backed myself into a corner before I bet to win. Glad I did. My patience in exotics because of this reality makes my exotics play more efficient and focused.

That is some seriously good advice, from someone who is obviously doing it well.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I started with Beyer's Winning Horseplayer back in 1996 when I started playing. I learned exotics first and after a few years learning realized in 2001 after winning all year that I could do some damage. Over the next 10 years I realized I squandered much money by NOT betting to win. It was stupid. One day in particular at Beulah I had winners at 4-1, 8-1,15-1, 16-1 and I didn't make much money as I got blown out of exotics left and right. So I started splitting bet loyalties. That one day opened my eyes. And while my exotics cash flow can have big swings from year to year my win % and average mutual remained steady(28% and 9.40). The last 2 years the mutual went up to 11.00 then 12.00.

But my point is Pandy this should not be an either/or situation. I think that is ridiculous. Why the philosophical war between players? Plus I don't think all means of wagering can be lumped in together as win or exotics. I have about 6 different approaches that make money. This year so far I have been mediocre with the exotics whereas last year I was solid. The win bets and high volume win bets on ratings bias plays have been steady. I think is foundational without being the resurrection. I've heard more than once on here the swinging for the fencers having 10% ROI's. That is absurd. Anyway I backed myself into a corner before I bet to win. Glad I did. My patience in exotics because of this reality makes my exotics play more efficient and focused.

I think win betting is more for the casual players, which is okay, obviously, very few horseplayers aspire to be professional gamblers. I'm just saying, I've never met a professional horseplayer that's a win bettor. If you had a 10% return, you would have to bet $500,000 a year to make $50,000, and almost all of those bets would have to be at major racetracks.

[cj]

Originally Posted by pandy

I think win betting is more for the casual players, which is okay, obviously, very few horseplayers aspire to be professional gamblers. I'm just saying, I've never met a professional horseplayer that's a win bettor. If you had a 10% return, you would have to bet $500,000 a year to make $50,000, and almost all of those bets would have to be at major racetracks.

With conditional betting and rebates it is possible to bet enough races to do it in the win pools in my opinion. You can bet a ton of races a day by uploading a file and forget about it. You can maximize by betting more pools. When I was overseas and getting really good rebates, I'd bet the same horse to win (using alls) in every pool I could. That really helped at smaller tracks.

[dav4463]

Originally Posted by rsetup

This reminds me of when Kate Jackson, that ugly, thin actress from Charlie's Angels, felt the need to make the public statement that she would NOT be doing nude scenes.

The overwhelming, and by a HUGE amount, majority of players here, and more generally, rely on speed and pace figures. It's how anyone coming to the game is approaching it these days. Even your thinly veiled target relies on speed and pace figures.

So, other than finding yet another way to remind us of your 54:1 win, what's the point, Mike? Not enough visitors to your daily threads?

I actually thought Kate Jackson was kind of hot in a geeky way!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by pandy

I think win betting is more for the casual players, which is okay, obviously, very few horseplayers aspire to be professional gamblers. I'm just saying, I've never met a professional horseplayer that's a win bettor. If you had a 10% return, you would have to bet $500,000 a year to make $50,000, and almost all of those bets would have to be at major racetracks.

Your numbers hide more than they reveal. To a $2 bettor, they may seem to make sense. To anyone who routinely bets 50-75 races a day, using multiple models, 300-400 races a week, not so much. To push $10k a week through the mill only requires an average bet in the $30 range. Not overly difficult, if one does not agonize over individual races, and intentionally seeks high-volume wagers with (relatively) modest returns, rather than chasing rainbows. And DEFINITELY does not require that "almost all of those bets would have to be at major racetracks."

I understand your view, and I appreciate that it may represent reality as your experience seems to indicate it exists. Others have different views based on their own personal experiences that may differ dramatically from your (or anyone else's) view. Lots of computer handicappers out there pushing lots of money through the mill--and more than a few are taking out more (sometimes WAY more) than 10% profit.

Why don't they come on PA and tell us all in gruesome detail exactly how they do it? I think anyone who asks that question is probably too naive to benefit from any kind of answer anyway, so I will pretend that everyone already knows the answer.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by traynor

Lots of computer handicappers out there pushing lots of money through the mill--and more than a few are taking out more (sometimes WAY more) than 10% profit.

Yes, I'm sure...like you?

All these PHD handicappers out there...and yet in 18 years, not a one has come on this board and dazzled us for a MERE WEEK with selections that would blow our minds.

In fact, .5% of those who come here to post picks even bother to keep track of their selections in any long term fashion.

I'd love to see just one person, making a living betting WPS, to come on here and post a profit over a mere 400 races. And "WAY MORE" than 10% ROI...

I'm sure such people exist, but you make it seem like they are all over the place, yet none of them have ever shown their faces here.

[AltonKelsey]

Which is why I posed the question, Traynor. I know they are in the win pools , all you have to do is ......... look.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yes, I'm sure...like you?

All these PHD handicappers out there...and yet in 18 years, not a one has come on this board and dazzled us for a MERE WEEK with selections that would blow our minds.

In fact, .5% of those who come here to post picks even bother to keep track of their selections in any long term fashion.

I'd love to see just one person, making a living betting WPS, to come on here and post a profit over a mere 400 races. And "WAY MORE" than 10% ROI...

I'm sure such people exist, but you make it seem like they are all over the place, yet none of them have ever shown their faces here.

What possible motivation would they have to do such a thing?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yes, I'm sure...like you?

All these PHD handicappers out there...and yet in 18 years, not a one has come on this board and dazzled us for a MERE WEEK with selections that would blow our minds.

In fact, .5% of those who come here to post picks even bother to keep track of their selections in any long term fashion.

I'd love to see just one person, making a living betting WPS, to come on here and post a profit over a mere 400 races. And "WAY MORE" than 10% ROI...

I'm sure such people exist, but you make it seem like they are all over the place, yet none of them have ever shown their faces here.

lol. Well, really, if they do exist they are pros who have no interest or reason to share their wealth. So like bigfoot, they stay hidden.

I also suspect that what they do, is not achievable by a normal player. Probably boring too. Doubt any of them make 'picks' at all.