NYRA TURF ROUTES

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by cj

You think "run at a strong gallop" is common on turf here? I don't.

well usually the chart callers in the North America, don't comment on the pace of the race. in the UK they do quite a lot.

for instance. in todays 14:40 at Catterick; 12F around turns.

comment was "a weak handicap, run at a fair enough pace"

Allan

[cj]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

well usually the chart callers in the North America, don't comment on the pace of the race. in the UK they do quite a lot.

for instance. in todays 14:40 at Catterick; 12F around turns.

comment was "a weak handicap, run at a fair enough pace"

Allan

I know they don't. I was asking if they did do you think you'd see it used often in North America? I don't. That is the point of the thread as far as I can tell, that races HERE aren't run at a strong gallop either.

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 1 today on the Widener at 1m16 with the rails at 27ft.
Six horse field with four runners stretching out from a sprint...let's see how this pace unfolds.
The appears as tough he can have it his own way up front, Jose Ortiz up, let's see how fast (or slow) they go.

[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Race 1 today on the Widener at 1m16 with the rails at 27ft.
Six horse field with four runners stretching out from a sprint...let's see how this pace unfolds.
The appears as tough he can have it his own way up front, Jose Ortiz up, let's see how fast (or slow) they go.

23.2 46.2 1:10 1:34.4 1:41.1

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

My experience has been that speed horses are underbet on turf and I take advantage of it. It is probably due to a lot of the stuff I've seen written here and elsewhere. Yes, the races are different, but they aren't different to the level some think.

I will bet speed on turf, but it's usually on a horse that wired last time with a moderately soft pace and finished really well. People view w2w slow pace winners on turf the same way they view w2w slow pace winners on dirt wind up downgrading them way too much. They do the same thing with fast paces. They upgrade the speeds too much.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cj

I know they don't. I was asking if they did do you think you'd see it used often in North America? I don't. That is the point of the thread as far as I can tell, that races HERE aren't run at a strong gallop either.

Regardless of the result (any result) that is 1 of my main reasons for starting the thread.

I watched TLG blow a gasket last summer at the SPA, when late in the meet, a 2 horse (can't remember the name) wired a turf route field. This 2 HORSE, WAS A CLOSER. Every jock on their speed horse dragged and grabbed and choked and acted like making your horse rank was the way to the winners circle. This 2 horse jogged around the track untouched.

It's THOSE races that are unhandicappable. Do I like that as a horizontal, many times spread too much, player? yes! But as a fan of integrity, it pisses me the F off. (Even as I cash for $20K on the merry go round race).

Why? Because in the long term, you can't ALWAYS capitalize on a chaos result when your truly handicapping a race that totally seems "normal".

And before anyone says: You need to open your horizon and look deeper for a reason, KNOW that I can look deeper than 90% of the world, for any reason to think chaos....(or that something truly variable will happen). Here's one example: If a speed horse always breaks well but last time was out totally clean but was missing a burst (but lead regardless because the field had no speed) THEN that horse is expected to NOT lead today (in my eyes, as maybe the horse is getting dull).

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by pandy

I've been betting more turf race lately, mainly because of my new Power Pace method, which pinpoints horses that have enough speed to be in contention at the pace call but have stamina. The bottom line is, if you avoid betting deep closers, your win percentage goes up.

Yes, turf races are won by horses that finish well, but that doesn't mean that they need to be coming from far back.

I think the key is to find the one or two horses which can win without having to be on the lead half way through because most people will be on the horses which need the lead thus dragging value out of playing those front runners..
of course if the value plays are in the front of the field, no sense trying to beat them. Ya bet on 'em.....
This can be a crazy game.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Question...do you bet? Not like have you bet ever, but recently, have you been playing Belmont or any other track?

I skip around. I have about a half dozen or so in my Equibase virtual stable. I watch for those and bet them. I may go days or even a week without making a single wager. I had to back off due to not only my awful situation with having to use an offshore book( I'm in NC) but the guy with whom I was making bets changed jobs so I can no longer have him place my bets into his (now) NYRA Bets account like I used to
But mainly because I am a NYRA centered person. That is the circuit I bet...
I am nowhere near any of you guys in play volume. I am strictly low budget.
Why would you ask if I bet?

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Can't be a pissing match. Because I don't care.

I'm quite sure you're a phony. But I don't care about that either.

I don't think you actually want anyone to believe you. It seems like you enjoy just messing with folks.

That's cool. Have fun. I don't care.

I couldn't care less about which poster "believes me". I've already been verified in person by multiple posters. There's absolutely nothing to prove on my part.

And for the record, I have never messed with anyone on here. I am a straight shooter.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I skip around. I have about a half dozen or so in my Equibase virtual stable. I watch for those and bet them. I may go days or even a week without making a single wager. I had to back off due to not only my awful situation with having to use an offshore book( I'm in NC) but the guy with whom I was making bets changed jobs so I can no longer have him place my bets into his (now) NYRA Bets account like I used to
But mainly because I am a NYRA centered person. That is the circuit I bet...
I am nowhere near any of you guys in play volume. I am strictly low budget.
Why would you ask if I bet?

Was just curious.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by RXB

On dirt, the win% and ITM% decline very obviously and significantly with each move backward in early position; the more forwardly horses are placed early on dirt, the better in the long run. But in turf routes, unless a horse gets the lead there's essentially no overall benefit from more forward position except to the extent that it keeps horses within the front half or even the front two-thirds of the field. So why force the issue? A turf route rider whose horse is parked on the outside shoulder or hip of the leader a couple of furlongs into the race is usually not improving his own chances by forcing the pace aggressively during the middle stages.

It is baffling to me that the concept of a racehorse motion is so ineptly misunderstood.

It is not that speed is faster or slower than it is on turf; it is that the resistance to speed on turf is less than it is on dirt; speed is a consequential time resultant of this.

This can be easily verified by the calculation of the coefficient of kinetic friction for both surfaces.

An informative quote made by former poster, robert99 in 2007: “Dirt is a poor traction surface so it is not so easy to make up any lost ground as on turf - plus facing kickback. The energy expenditure lost opportunity is very difficult to make up for in increased speed later in the race.”

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Regardless of the result (any result) that is 1 of my main reasons for starting the thread.

I watched TLG blow a gasket last summer at the SPA, when late in the meet, a 2 horse (can't remember the name) wired a turf route field. This 2 HORSE, WAS A CLOSER. Every jock on their speed horse dragged and grabbed and choked and acted like making your horse rank was the way to the winners circle. This 2 horse jogged around the track untouched.

It's THOSE races that are unhandicappable. Do I like that as a horizontal, many times spread too much, player? yes! But as a fan of integrity, it pisses me the F off. (Even as I cash for $20K on the merry go round race).

Why? Because in the long term, you can't ALWAYS capitalize on a chaos result when your truly handicapping a race that totally seems "normal".

And before anyone says: You need to open your horizon and look deeper for a reason, KNOW that I can look deeper than 90% of the world, for any reason to think chaos....(or that something truly variable will happen). Here's one example: If a speed horse always breaks well but last time was out totally clean but was missing a burst (but lead regardless because the field had no speed) THEN that horse is expected to NOT lead today (in my eyes, as maybe the horse is getting dull).

This is what many of us are trying to say. Too many unhandicappable turf races.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

This is what many of us are trying to say. Too many unhandicappable turf races.

There are too many connections/jocks that take away their horse's natural running style. Migliore likes to say, put a horse in position to utilize it's strength. There is far too much rating, choking, grabbing etc on horses that look very unhappy to be rated, choked, grabbed etc.

To add to the variables, of course, Belmont is a unique course. Those chutes can take a speed horse to last if the horse next to you breaks left/right.

It's so important to take notes on all details in these turf races, so one can capitalize.

But.....sometimes, on rare occassions one can scratch their head at a wire to wire winner that never figured to lead.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Cratos

An informative quote made by former poster, robert99 in 2007: “Dirt is a poor traction surface so it is not so easy to make up any lost ground as on turf - plus facing kickback. The energy expenditure lost opportunity is very difficult to make up for in increased speed later in the race.”

I spent a lot of time trying to formulate a theory as to why the surfaces are different (including biased dirt surfaces), but in the end, as long as you know they are you can adjust your thinking on how to handicap them.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

This is what many of us are trying to say. Too many unhandicappable turf races.

A race deemed unhandicappable by definition HAS in fact been handicapped extensively to have been deemed as such.

IMO there's nothing wrong with that. In fact it's correct to call it that and move on.

Correct and prudent.

The point I'm trying to make is those who feel the strategy of the instructions and rides makes it too tough to quantify. Certainly have the right to pass and move on to the next puzzle. Nobody would blame them for that.

However, as I said before. Somebody, in fact many, have chosen to accept this challenge. And actual $$$ was distributed to the winners.

What I'll never understand is when people whine AFTER the fact that their opinion of what was going to happen early in the race didn't occur.

All that means is what YOU thought was likely to transpire didn't. To blame that on ANYBODY rather than owning it is crazy.

A race is a puzzle to be solved with many different components. If what you "think" should or will happen doesn't there is only one place the buck stops. In your lap. Or wallet.

Someone else saw it totally different and won your $$$. Solution? There are many. Work harder. Work longer. Do races you feel more comfortable with. Look within and accept being wrong. Own it rather than looking for an excuse to embrace denial and massage your ego.

A 7/2 shot pays $9.00 on every race on the planet. If IYO the NYRA jocks colony makes it too hard to find enough of those. Focus elsewhere.