Canterbury to cut takeout across the board

[lamboguy]

the state of this game is very sad. my guess is that lowering the take at Canterburry will have a drastic effect this year and the handle will plunge due to the lower take. simple reason is most of the business at that place comes from rebate players. you get a rebate win or lose in this game. there are plenty of other places to stick your money that give higher rebates.

i happen to love the concept. if by chance i am wrong and see bigger pools, i will be more than happy to bet more money into bigger pools with less rebate. highly doubt that will happen though.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the state of this game is very sad. my guess is that lowering the take at Canterburry will have a drastic effect this year and the handle will plunge due to the lower take. simple reason is most of the business at that place comes from rebate players. you get a rebate win or lose in this game. there are plenty of other places to stick your money that give higher rebates.

i happen to love the concept. if by chance i am wrong and see bigger pools, i will be more than happy to bet more money into bigger pools with less rebate. highly doubt that will happen though.

The rebate angle is an added level of complexity to be sure.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

Of course lowering takeout increases handle and of course it doesn't guarantee profit. What we have learned without a doubt is that raising takeout isn't the answer either. It is a crutch that never works. The argument is always something like this...we handle 100k a day on the early double at 18% so lets raise it to 20% and we'll get an extra 2k a day on that bet alone. The people that implement takeout raises not only didn't pass Econ 101, they are too dumb to even get admitted to the class.

What would takeout be without all these subsidies we see all over the country, 95%?

I suspect raising the takeout of certain races, especially the Kentucky Derby, would actually be incredibly profitable.

But you are right, a general increase in takeout is sometimes posited as a panacea for failing tracks and circuits, and it is not one. And since high takeouts tick customers off, it's a good idea to lower them when you can.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the state of this game is very sad. my guess is that lowering the take at Canterburry will have a drastic effect this year and the handle will plunge due to the lower take. simple reason is most of the business at that place comes from rebate players. you get a rebate win or lose in this game. there are plenty of other places to stick your money that give higher rebates.

i happen to love the concept. if by chance i am wrong and see bigger pools, i will be more than happy to bet more money into bigger pools with less rebate. highly doubt that will happen though.

The biggest rebate players should bet slightly more at Canterbury. The lower takeout with a lower rebate would be a very slight net gain for them since it's shown they lose less than the takeout. I am talking very very slight net gain but net gain nonetheless.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cj

You are saying (best I can tell) that people will bet the same amount in total regardless of price. I don't agree with that and neither does every study I've ever seen done. Racetracks have for the most part ignored these studies, many they funded themselves, and thus find themselves in the poor position they are in today. Forgive me if I have no sympathy for any of them and love seeing somebody try something new.

You should put these posts together and get a resume update. Churchill would snap you up in a second.

Good Matchmaker!!!!!!!!!!!!! great post CJ

[Tom]

I looked at the results today and the entries for tomorrow, an alleged holiday, and see a whole bunch of over-priced crap at every track. I will not be wasting a minute of my time swallowing the garbage the industry is serving up.

Used to be they mucked out the stalls.
Now they saddle it.
And give you 8-5 on it.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

simple reason is most of the business at that place comes from rebate players.

No, not most. CDI handles the signal. Rebates for most were crap last year, and are this year. The largest players net takeout is the same, because the price of the signal fee hasn't moved.

About 40% of handle on weekends comes from on-track, which is quite good; in fact most tracks would kill for that. Simo on weekends is weak and has always been that way, like a lot of small tracks.

CBY is a small track trying to get noticed, not unlike Mountaineer in the late 90's when they embarked upon their journey into simulcasting. So far so good, but we'll see how they are doing a year or two down the road.

[RXB]

I think Canterbury is doing a great thing and hopefully it works out. People need to think long term as well as short term. High takeout is partly responsible for the slow death of enthusiasm for wagering on horse races.

On a different issue, they think they're doing a favour by highlighting the favourite's odds in blue for their on-screen graphics but all they're really doing is making those odds more difficult to read.

[OTM Al]

Originally Posted by RXB

I think Canterbury is doing a great thing and hopefully it works out. People need to think long term as well as short term. High takeout is partly responsible for the slow death of enthusiasm for wagering on horse races.

On a different issue, they think they're doing a favour by highlighting the favourite's odds in blue for their on-screen graphics but all they're really doing is making those odds more difficult to read.

Write them about it rather than posting on the message board. Have heard they are pretty responsive.

[precisionk]

This is a great thing for Canterbury. Residing in MN myself, they are taking advantage of the Ojibwe Casino money from Mystic they received and trying to do all they can to bring the bettors in. They can handle the lower takeout at least for now as they have a 10 year/75 Million agreement to not chase the racino dream. Funny thing is if you reside in MN, you can't bet on your local tracks. The good news is there is a bill on the Gov's desk to fix that and just awaiting his signature.

[DeanT]

Ah, the hodge podge of state by state rules

Good card tomorrow, imo. I like a few guys and will be playing. Friday night handles have been good this meet, too, so pick 4 size should be workable.

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Ah, the hodge podge of state by state rules

Good card tomorrow, imo. I like a few guys and will be playing. Friday night handles have been good this meet, too, so pick 4 size should be workable.

Thunderstorms in the area Friday P.M.

[precisionk]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Ah, the hodge podge of state by state rules

Good card tomorrow, imo. I like a few guys and will be playing. Friday night handles have been good this meet, too, so pick 4 size should be workable.

Funny thing, shortly after I wrote my post. Governor signed the bill, but I guess individual tracks could impose their own restrictions. I have no idea why they would do that as you would assume handle is handle.

[DeanT]

FYI for those playing Thursday, each Thursday the boys put up a post with some stats and picks. CJ, Dave Valento's Thursday sheet (for free), rail bias notes, Jcapper picks and other analysts picks and pick 4's.

http://blog.horseplayersassociation....-and-more.html

Good luck if you're playing!

[DeanT]

Boy they've had a tough time with weather -- off turf tonight. FYI.

Also, pretty comprehensive betting guide with the past 3 years stats by Lenny, available here via a PDF if interested.

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/cbyguide.pdf

That's great work. Thanks Lenny.