To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I think what I'm missing is that not all 10% ROIs are created equally...

Are you willing to do the work to monitor whether your top pick is an overlay in the exacta pools, the rolling double pools? If your bets are weighted properly, with perhaps a safe throw-out here and there, you might be surprised at the results.....It's up to you, and whether you want to do the extra work, which equals more profitable plays for extra $$$.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Can you go into some more detail, please. I need this pounded into my head.

First off, I hardly ever bet on half the horses. If you look over my threads, it's usually 2 to 3 at most....sometimes 1...but a lot of times just 2. And I tend to avoid short fields and try and concentrate on field sizes of 9 or above, so I'm never really betting on half the field.

I'm losing about 9% on ALL of my overlays. Which is beating the take by a pretty good margin. But it's still losing.

I am winning about 8% at the moment on my top pick only.

Shouldn't an odds line that makes almost 10% on its top pick overlay also do pretty well on it's other contenders? If not, it's not a very good oddsline at all, wouldn't you agree? And it could and should be studied to make it better.

Is it that unrealistic to think that if you can make money on your top pick overlay, you should be able to also make money on your other contenders when they are overlays as well?

Obviously, my line isn't all that good (you see the whacky lines I post sometimes), but it also obviously has some merit, since it's winning.

You were absolutely right when you said a few days ago that we can't make a profit in this game without betting on overlays...but we don't need to create an accurate betting line for the entire field in order to accomplish that. In fact...we needn't create an odds-line AT ALL. We can do just fine by being "selection-oriented"...if our "top selections" collectively go off at higher prices than they should. And when I see you selecting 54-1 shots on top...I got a hunch that you won't have much trouble getting higher prices on your top selections.

Yes...your betting line isn't sophisticated enough to select several profitable "overlays" in the same race...but, SO WHAT? I doubt that there are 5 horseplayers in the entire COUNTRY who can find "value" in a race in the wide-spread manner that you are attempting to utilize here. IMO...your method is more "selection-oriented"...and your profit relies more on the quality of your top selections, rather than the accuracy of your overall line. I said it to you a long time ago; your top selections are very solid...but the math that you use to create your line is a little off...causing you to make obvious mistakes in the probability assessments of even your TOP choices. But if you fiddle with your line in order to make it more accurate overall...you might discover that this "alteration" will adversely affect the current potency of your top selections.

You were WRONG when you made Green Gratto a 7-5 selection in the Carter...but you deserve all the credit in the world for selecting that horse on top. And...you were WRONG when you said that Always Dreaming was a 22-1 choice in the Derby...but one Green Gratto will make up for 50 Always Dreamings. We all make big mistakes every day, PA...and none of us can be sure that we are assigning the "proper odds" on a horse-by-horse basis. We bet on a large number of races, and we tally the results...and THAT'S how we find out if our method(s) have merit or not. I doubt that there is a single horseplayer in this entire country who has a line-making method which wins with 50% of its even-money choices...33% of its 2-1 choices...25% of its 3-1 choices...etc. Don't believe the hype. 99% of the horseplayers out there would be THRILLED to get the results that you are currently getting with this method of yours.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let me ask another question...

How the hell can anyone make a living win betting? I don't think you can. Not how I am currently doing things.

Let's say what I'm doing with my top pick is legit. I have almost 400 races in the books. I have about a 10% ROI (it's at 9% at the moment, but let's use round numbers).

I am only averaging 9 plays a day with my top pick as an overlay. And I look at EVERY race in the USA and Canada.

And we all know you can't bet even $100 at many of the tracks I've had plays at before you start affecting your own odds.

And even if you were able to bet $100 per win bet without hurting your prices at all tracks...that's $900 a day and $27,000 per month. At 10% ROI, that's only $2,700 a month profit. You can't live off of that. You move up to $200 or $500 bets, and you definitely will be killing your prices at the small tracks, which makes up a hefty portion of my action.

No wonder you never hear of a full time win-bet-only player. Do they exist? I suppose they do if you've found a way to get a decent amount of plays at the larger pool tracks.

And yet I hear people all the time say..."if I had a bona fide 10% ROI, I'd be a rich man in no time"

Really? What am I missing?

The few that used to or may still exist don't bet to win. That's the difference. I've personally known five professional gamblers, two harness players, three thoroughbred bettors, not one of them bet to win.

There's a gentleman in Canada that I know, who I have a lot of respect for, both as a person and a handicapper...he has a friend that he often tells me about. He has spent time with him at the track and at his home with his family... and he has seen how this guy bets. He is a Pick 4/5 player and he bets them at several different tracks every day of the week. He handicaps the races early in the morning then puts his bets in around 11 a.m., then he's done for the day. He doesn't have a job. This, of course, takes a huge bankroll, but he has the money because he's a professional gambler who has a six figure income.

Every professional bettor I've either known, or got a chance to see in action, was not the type who was looking to grind out a profit on $500 win bets. They were looking for crushing hits on exactas, trifectas, superfectas, etc.

[PaceAdvantage]

Latest numbers...back to 10% after a few clicks down...

Top pick went 4 for 9 and returned $31.20

TOP PICK (OVERLAYS ONLY) Running total (43 Days):

85 for 398 | $796 Wagered | $879.30 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

All plays went 4 for 22 and returned $31.20

ALL PICKS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (43 Days):

138 for 954 | $1908 Wagered | $1720.90 returned | $0.90 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

At this point, we're quickly coming to the end of my public experiment. I doubt I'll post much more beyond the 400 top pick mark. I think I've accomplished what I set out to do, both for myself and anyone who has ever wondered whether in this day and age, one can show a decent profit over hundreds of races at tracks all over the country, using nothing but speed and pace figures and a value line based on those figures.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by pandy

The few that used to or may still exist don't bet to win. That's the difference. I've personally known five professional gamblers, two harness players, three thoroughbred bettors, not one of them bet to win.

There's a gentleman in Canada that I know, who I have a lot of respect for, both as a person and a handicapper...he has a friend that he often tells me about. He has spent time with him at the track and at his home with his family... and he has seen how this guy bets. He is a Pick 4/5 player and he bets them at several different tracks every day of the week. He handicaps the races early in the morning then puts his bets in around 11 a.m., then he's done for the day. He doesn't have a job. This, of course, takes a huge bankroll, but he has the money because he's a professional gambler who has a six figure income.

Every professional bettor I've either known, or got a chance to see in action, was not the type who was looking to grind out a profit on $500 win bets. They were looking for crushing hits on exactas, trifectas, superfectas, etc.

Not going to dispute what you're saying but then who is it exactly that IS betting to win and keeping the odds in line, since all the 'smart money' is elsewhere.

I'm not even sure who the idiots are that are betting these bad 3/5 shots that show up everywhere, but that's another question.

[ultracapper]

I didn't handicap, nor even watch the race, and I know the horse paid $100+, but I'd like to know why making the horse a 7/5 pick on a personal odds line is incorrect, particularly after choosing the winner.

I've had numerous horses over the years I would have made odds-on and been paid $15, $20, even $30+.

[ultracapper]

I do want to clarify one thing however. When I make an odds line, which really is something relatively new to me because I have just recently come to understand the benefits it brings to my decision making process, I make a probability line, in contrast to a betting line. The total of my percentages comes to 100, whereas a betting line must account for the house cut. In SoCal, this makes for a line where the percentages should amount to 119 - 123. There is only 100% chance of winning the race, whereas there must be an additional 19% to 23% of the money distributed to the winners to pay the house for its services.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let me ask another question...

How the hell can anyone make a living win betting? I don't think you can. Not how I am currently doing things.

Let's say what I'm doing with my top pick is legit. I have almost 400 races in the books. I have about a 10% ROI (it's at 9% at the moment, but let's use round numbers).

I am only averaging 9 plays a day with my top pick as an overlay. And I look at EVERY race in the USA and Canada.

And we all know you can't bet even $100 at many of the tracks I've had plays at before you start affecting your own odds.

And even if you were able to bet $100 per win bet without hurting your prices at all tracks...that's $900 a day and $27,000 per month. At 10% ROI, that's only $2,700 a month profit. You can't live off of that. You move up to $200 or $500 bets, and you definitely will be killing your prices at the small tracks, which makes up a hefty portion of my action.

No wonder you never hear of a full time win-bet-only player. Do they exist? I suppose they do if you've found a way to get a decent amount of plays at the larger pool tracks.

And yet I hear people all the time say..."if I had a bona fide 10% ROI, I'd be a rich man in no time"

Really? What am I missing?

Correct.

You would need to add two additional steps. 1) Eliminate some of the more obvious losers. How you would do this isn't the point. You'd just have to do it. 2) Find a way to determine some of your stronger choices, and hit them harder than your regular bet. Again, how you would do this isn't the point here. The point is you would have to have a method to determine which horses are better bets, and increase your bets on those horses.

[ultracapper]

BTW, what you have done here is very interesting, and should be a topic of considerable discussion by anybody on this board that is serious about being a serious horse player. Not only has your results been impressive, but also a smorgasbord of food for thought. If nothing else, it is a springboard for additional analysis for all players that begin their handicapping with consideration for speed and pace figures. You've actually added an additional step, or dimension, by considering an odds line and discovering overlays.

Good job Boss.

[ultracapper]

The more I sit and think about this, the more issues pop into my head. You're playing any and all tracks in NA at a 10% profit on investment (POI). But I would guess there are tracks you're showing a 15% POI and others you're showing a 5% POI. Hopefully, your performance at the tracks with larger pools are on the positive side of the 10% POI, because you could increase your bets there without any additional filters. With 3MTP at Santa Anita, you can put $1500 on a horse at 8/1 and it may only go down to 6/1, maybe even only to 7/1, with an outstanding chance of floating back up. At 3MTP on a 3/1 selection, $1500 very often will float under the radar.

My point being. Determine which tracks you're having above "total return" performance, and if those tracks have the bigger win pools, you can be very comfortable being more aggressive with your win bets there.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Not going to dispute what you're saying but then who is it exactly that IS betting to win and keeping the odds in line, since all the 'smart money' is elsewhere.

I'm not even sure who the idiots are that are betting these bad 3/5 shots that show up everywhere, but that's another question.

They've done exactly what Boss has done here. The "black box" has spit out that 3/5 shot, and they haven't determined any further whether it's a "good" or "bad" 3/5. They just know that if they bet all of these, they will get their POI, plus their rebate.

When I see a very obvious poor odds-on horse in SoCal, I'm usually pretty sure that some program of some big bettor(s) has spit it out, and no additional handicapping has gone into the assessment. They are playing their program's percentages, and in order for that to work, they must mechanically bet each and every choice that program directs them to bet. If not, they will skewer their results, and will no longer be able to determine with any accuracy whether the program they have developed is successful.

[timtam]

I guess the days of WINNING BIG AT THE TRACK WITH MONEY MANAGEMENT

by Don Passer are gone by the wayside. He used to advocate making a

betting line but used the track odds cutoff at 8/1. Didn't like betting exotics

either. Times sure have changed.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I didn't handicap, nor even watch the race, and I know the horse paid $100+, but I'd like to know why making the horse a 7/5 pick on a personal odds line is incorrect, particularly after choosing the winner.

I've had numerous horses over the years I would have made odds-on and been paid $15, $20, even $30+.

Again, for the record, I made the horse 6/5, not 7/5

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=137591

First reply...I was on board the GG train EARLY!

[jasperson]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Let me ask another question...

How the hell can anyone make a living win betting? I don't think you can. Not how I am currently doing things.

Let's say what I'm doing with my top pick is legit. I have almost 400 races in the books. I have about a 10% ROI (it's at 9% at the moment, but let's use round numbers).

I am only averaging 9 plays a day with my top pick as an overlay. And I look at EVERY race in the USA and Canada.

And we all know you can't bet even $100 at many of the tracks I've had plays at before you start affecting your own odds.

And even if you were able to bet $100 per win bet without hurting your prices at all tracks...that's $900 a day and $27,000 per month. At 10% ROI, that's only $2,700 a month profit. You can't live off of that. You move up to $200 or $500 bets, and you definitely will be killing your prices at the small tracks, which makes up a hefty portion of my action.

No wonder you never hear of a full time win-bet-only player. Do they exist? I suppose they do if you've found a way to get a decent amount of plays at the larger pool tracks.

And yet I hear people all the time say..."if I had a bona fide 10% ROI, I'd be a rich man in no time"

Really? What am I missing?

I can't agree more. I have decided a long time ago that I was never going make a living betting the races. I choke at a $20 bet. Since I am retired and on a relatively fixed income I just make my $2 bets and enjoy handicapping the races. I don't win much or lose much,but enjoy the races.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Not going to dispute what you're saying but then who is it exactly that IS betting to win and keeping the odds in line, since all the 'smart money' is elsewhere.

I'm not even sure who the idiots are that are betting these bad 3/5 shots that show up everywhere, but that's another question.

I think we have to assume that the majority of horseplayers aren't that good at handicapping or betting, or both. Some odds on favorites are so obviously flawed yet people bet them, hard to fathom.

Darin Zoccali has an article about betting on drf today. The main profit he made on this today came from exotic wagers. As Pace alluded to, if you want to make any sort of meaningful money from betting horses, it's going to be very tough to do betting to win.


http://www.drf.com/news/zoccali-trus...ping-game-bust