To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Oh, there's definitely some serious braggadocio happening on my end. A need for approval. Almost as much as your need to be a total a-hole to those you disagree with or whom you think aren't masters of the game like you think you are with your FAT CHARTS. Although I will admit, you have been much better lately, so I have to give you credit there.

And I couldn't care less about Green Gratto (another reminder). It's not like I haven't posted $100+ horses before in graded stakes races (Take Charge Brandi anyone? ). But the question seems to always come up about my current ROI so I cut it off at the pass now.

But even a casual viewer of this website over the years must admit there have been LOTS of people who would often make the snide comment that you can't win with software or speed figures alone (and ALONE is the key word here). Speed figs can't tell you this or they can't tell you that. A computer can't tell you about this subtly bad trip or that a jockey looked like he purposefully wasn't out there to win, etc. etc.

And no, I wasn't targeting anyone...it's happened often enough over 18 years (another boast - my website's longevity) from many different sources.

Very good results over 800/400 +/- race selections.

But, I'm just wondering how much better your ROI or whatever would've been, had you learned how to watch replays and maybe avoided some of those losing selections.

You may have noticed the horseplayers I'm used to are a tough group to please.

Btw, I'm one of those advocates of watching replays but I've also tried to add that there are a number of ways to Win playing the horses. Watching replays can only help your handicapping, IMO.

Again, very good handicapping.

I remember a horse racing Guru, R. Stein used to say something like, "very good, but what have you done for me lately"?

I'm paraphrasing so, maybe SRU can jump in and provide the exact wording?

[o_crunk]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

In short, I have used nothing but TimeForumUS speed and pace figures in my handicapping. And here is my record on my posted plays to date:

Now granted I am showing a loss on all plays (all plays are any contender that goes off at or above my odds line), but betting only my top pick when it goes off at, or higher than my value odds line, I am ahead by 10% after 352 races and 39 days, and that's with a paltry 20% strike rate. And no, this positive ROI does NOT include Green Gratto, the 50-1 shot I posted as a top pick in another thread. The Carter did not qualify as a Value Races & Horses race. So my 10% ROI is not relying on some freaky 50-1 winner.

Could I be doing better if I was taking trip notes or considering some of the stuff I am ignoring during this experiment? Probably. But that's not the point.

You can actually do a lot better with just the numbers.

First, just betting the top, five checkmark TFUS horse in ALL races in the last year, you'd win almost 30% with an ROI slightly higher than betting the post time favorite from the same sample (which wins at 37%) from over 40K+ races covered. The checkmark/power pick is basically 90% of the time just CJ's figs as the input. You can find value and situations that make ROI+ plays over the course of thousands of races with just the numbers very easily, particularly in slow pace projected situations.

Second, you can turn the trainer and breeding ratings into useful numbers, comparable to CJ's figs and then scale them up or down depending on how you'd like to blend them into your line. For instance, I like 0-100 scale of the trainer ratings particularly because the TFUS scale is 0-140 (more like 50-140). You could easily scale the trainer ratings up to 50-140 if you wanted to keep them on equal footing for whatever you're doing. I don't because the figs themselves are more powerful than the trainer ratings. If what you're doing is good now, trust me, it will be dynamite with the trainer, jock and breeding stuff thrown in particularly in the situations you are currently passing on because those situations tend to be where the most value is.

[Dahoss9698]

This thread brought out a world class redboard from EMD. Well, he didn't redboard, his scumbag buddy Only11/Casino/Kash/Geared Down/Hammerlock/ Catagory5/etc/etc/etc did it for him. To be honest it gets hard keeping up with all of the different names that loser has had.

EMD has gotten really good at photoshop.

On top of that Serling had a monster day, so lots of angry internet tough guys tonight.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Very good results over 800/400 +/- race selections.

But, I'm just wondering how much better your ROI or whatever would've been, had you learned how to watch replays and maybe avoided some of those losing selections.

Whodo....your handicapping is atrocious. Why on earth would you assume someone "hasn't learned" to watch replays? You said something to me yesterday along those lines--I didn't care to argue the point so just let it go.

It's plain as day you aren't a winning horseplayer....instead of constantly giving advice--learn to take some.

Before you begin your rebuttal....total up your ROI for your Belmont posts.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

But, I'm just wondering how much better your ROI or whatever would've been, had you learned how to watch replays and maybe avoided some of those losing selections.

If you've read this thread, you'd see I already acknowledged that my results would probably improve by working in other handicapping factors.

Not my point in creating this thread though. Besides boasting about my positive ROI on my top pick over close to 400 races, the major point of the thread is to show proof that you CAN obtain a positive ROI by ONLY using numbers to the exclusion of everything else. Something a lot of people think is nearly impossible to do in this day and age, when most EVERYONE is using numbers.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

He is not handicapping (that is per PA not me BTW).

And you're right. I'm not really handicapping. I'm using what is essentially a semi-automated black box. Which is fine by me. It's always been a dream of mine. I have no problems using a black box if it keeps on working.

Today was a pretty horrible day for me. My ROI on the top pick went from 1.10 to 1.07.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by o_crunk

You can actually do a lot better with just the numbers.

First, just betting the top, five checkmark TFUS horse in ALL races in the last year, you'd win almost 30% with an ROI slightly higher than betting the post time favorite from the same sample (which wins at 37%) from over 40K+ races covered. The checkmark/power pick is basically 90% of the time just CJ's figs as the input. You can find value and situations that make ROI+ plays over the course of thousands of races with just the numbers very easily, particularly in slow pace projected situations.

Second, you can turn the trainer and breeding ratings into useful numbers, comparable to CJ's figs and then scale them up or down depending on how you'd like to blend them into your line. For instance, I like 0-100 scale of the trainer ratings particularly because the TFUS scale is 0-140 (more like 50-140). You could easily scale the trainer ratings up to 50-140 if you wanted to keep them on equal footing for whatever you're doing. I don't because the figs themselves are more powerful than the trainer ratings. If what you're doing is good now, trust me, it will be dynamite with the trainer, jock and breeding stuff thrown in particularly in the situations you are currently passing on because those situations tend to be where the most value is.

Thanks. I've toyed with those a bit, and will probably find a way to work them in, in the future.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And you're right. I'm not really handicapping. I'm using what is essentially a semi-automated black box. Which is fine by me. It's always been a dream of mine. I have no problems using a black box if it keeps on working.

Today was a pretty horrible day for me. My ROI on the top pick went from 1.10 to 1.07.

But you handicapped the black box. That is still handicapping. I do it all the time.

For a more conventional look at using TimeformUS, check out my segment for DRF's "Out of the Box" for today.

http://video.drf.com/detail/videos/o...autoStart=true

I'm more of a PA type guy when it comes to betting, but I can still dissect a race "old school".

[dkithore]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Thanks. I've toyed with those a bit, and will probably find a way to work them in, in the future.

I hope people get that you are talking about eating and enjoying a mango not counting how many mangoes are on the tree!

[NorCalGreg]

My main thing is searching for the "auto-bet" --or "black box" if you will. My attempt @ 100 selections over a weekend started fine.
After scratches- 58 selections, 16 wins...an amazing 20 2nd places.

Bet $116...Ret $137.50...28% Win... Avg $8.59...ROI +$1.19

Still have 42+ bets tomorrow...but I'm very close to my goal of the AUTO-BET...if I'm not there already.

Good luck

-NCG

[Tom]

But, I'm just wondering how much better your ROI or whatever would've been, had you learned how to watch replays and maybe avoided some of those losing selections.

Or how much worse had the replays cause him to avoid some of the winning ones too.

[jimmyb]

The best advice I ever got was to go back and figure out why a horse won a race. My handicapping does not include viewing replays, I did however find commonalities in the information available to me which included, pace, speed, fitness, recent finish, value as determined by me and a touch of class. This works for me, even if my hit rate is less than where others think it could or should be.

All the power to anyone receiving joy from their own methods.

[CincyHorseplayer]

What cracks me up is how this is perceived as an end point. I can't speak for Mike but this is a beginning point IMO. And it puts you into any race in the country. From there it meshes with all the other handicapping factors. I pay some good coin for pedigree, trainer, and other statistical material. I think I have a good grasp on the evolution of a thoroughbred via the age factor from Quinn and how it relates to class and form. Form cycle is itself an art and over time we are all our own individual artists that do good work. Starting out reading Beyer and Davidowitz I never stray too far from track bias, profile, and trips. The most relevant statistical material I think is your own. And not just bet records but taking your own oddslines and using them as a hub of analysis. Separating contenders from non contenders and know their field % vs win %, and how odds brackets perform. Not in themselves but within your scope of them. Tracking these things keeps me grounded and from slipping into the nether world of random betting. The horseplayer is the center of his own universe and there are no universal values. Winning is I guess!

I think it's all about reaching end points. I reached an end point with the DRF because I could win for a period of time then it would stop and I couldn't explain it. I still use the DRF but I needed more. I used pace figures but it wasn't enough. I had my own Sartin type thoughts and wanted to create my own ratings in excel. It essentially evolved into basically applying sabermetrics to pace figures like wOBA or WRC+ just as an example. I reached an end point with dirt racing realizing it's shortcomings and needed a better understanding of turf. Now it is a hub of my play. But I reached an end point when my turf obsession became out of control and I was glued to big tracks which can be chalky and/or difficult at the same time. I needed to not have a home track or tracks. All levels of racetrack and surface offer opportunities. Being stuck to a surface or track or circuit was an end point. Longstory short what I see Mike doing is starting from what I think is a universal point and going from there. What is universal from coast to coast? The horse. And fast horses win. Good place to start! Understanding bloodlines, maturation, form cycle, track and surfaces, trainers. Have that. But I would say grab this basic truth and run with it. From sea to shining sea! America is my one big racetrack and universal value!

[pandy]

I personally think the "numbers", pace, speed, and the actual fractions and time of the race, are by far the most important handicapping factors. If you understand how to use these, and are pretty good at figuring out which horses in the race may be outclassed, that's basically all you need.

Anything that does not have to do with the ability of the horse's in the race (such as jockey, trainer, pedigree), is weak by comparison.

I also agree that you can handicap extremely well just using these numbers.

[kingfin66]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And you're right. I'm not really handicapping. I'm using what is essentially a semi-automated black box. Which is fine by me. It's always been a dream of mine. I have no problems using a black box if it keeps on working.

Today was a pretty horrible day for me. My ROI on the top pick went from 1.10 to 1.07.

Well, mama said that there would be days like that...but seriously, I think what you are doing is great. Throw in some rebates and large wagers, and you are talking serious money. In this age of technology, you have got to utilize the tools which have been bestowed upon you.