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06-02-2014, 08:55 AM
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#1
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Precictive Statistics Books
I have found a bunch of books on predictive statistics. I see in their blurbs on Amazon that there are several that use stats to predict what % will buy at various levels of price , income of the buyer , sex of the buyer, etc. using mlogit generated numbers. If you read one or more of them, I would appreciate a recommendation. I would like to see how they handle things that might have different models for certain factors . For instance, the differences in how price and other things effects how men and women chose where they get their hair cut. I think I might be able to adapt one of these models to predict the likelihood of a horse winning.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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06-02-2014, 11:21 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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consider taking an online coarse in stats from the university. Better yet, contact the math department online. Most major universities math departments have students who tutor on line.
just a thought........
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Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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06-02-2014, 11:28 AM
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#3
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by HUSKER55
consider taking an online coarse in stats from the university. Better yet, contact the math department online. Most major universities math departments have students who tutor on line.
just a thought........
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I do not want to pay for a coarse, when I can just read the textbook instead. I know there are some you tube videos, but really I want a book to sort through. Thanks for your reply.
__________________
Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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06-02-2014, 01:28 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Welcome back Robert. You were missed here.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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06-03-2014, 07:21 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: route 66
Posts: 1,112
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If you haven't already, check this out:
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_no...ve%20analytics
The comment section is helpful for each book.
I have the one with the baseball on the cover. It's probably one of the better ones out there, but you do need excel for it.
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06-15-2014, 08:02 PM
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#6
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Paladin & Fudge
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: CALIFORNIA
Posts: 348
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Predictive
Has anyone been able to adapt principles from these books for analyzing the races? If so, would you be able to share some ideas? Stats are the "bread and butter" of analyzing races, as we all know, but if a new way of either organizing our data, or even visualizing our data, that would be "cool".
I see on this site a advertisement for a software application called, "Tableau"? Was wondering if anyone has experience with this platform?
CREST
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06-17-2014, 08:05 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 422
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stats
Crestridge: I have written three books: 2 on the Triple crown that American Turf has published and one on the Breeders Cup Races which they also published. These books all deal with impact values which I believe are very important stats, particularly if the related ROIs come out positive when the angles are used.
I wrote an article I had published by American turf monthly in this years May issue 2014. It was entitled Handicapping the Derby (Buckpasser in the X points out winners). This article deals with impact values from Buckpasser in the X angle. If you would like a copy of this article (free of charge) just email me at sbcaris@comcast.net and I will email it to you.
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