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Old 09-24-2018, 05:33 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
I understand. I bet there are a lot of races that fall into grey areas between the different patterns and won't be easy to classify. I'm sure the results will be worth the wait.
Yep. Trying to be more liberal with the "even race" tag.
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Old 09-24-2018, 05:33 PM   #167
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I'm sure that is a big part of it!
As well as running such an uneven pattern. The 2 are related.
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:11 PM   #168
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As well as running such an uneven pattern. The 2 are related.
As paradoxical as it may seem, the root of this unevenly run race was the too fast 1st 1/4. The other riders overreacted to it and dug themselves into a hole deep in the valley pattern with the slow 2nd quarter. They figured this pace was going to be too hot for this cheap filly from Finger Lakes and we just have to lay back until she folds in the stretch.
The good thing about these races is that they are extreme examples that bring about the discovery of effects of things like uneven patterns.

Last edited by bobphilo; 09-24-2018 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 09-24-2018, 06:52 PM   #169
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Here is what I have so far to spur some discussion.

Data Set:

January 1, 2015 through most of the Saturday figures...my assistant just submitted a few tracks for that day which aren't included. I have several more years I can add but kept it shorter for time purposes now.

Dirt Sprints, >6f and <7f

None of the races have a missing 1/4 mile figure, 1/2 mile figure, or final time figure due to timing or suspected timing errors.

This gave a total of 48,851 races.

Definitions:

Gap1: 1/4 mile pace figure - 1/2 mile pace figure
  • Hot: >8
  • Even: >=-8 and <=8
  • Cold: <-8
Gap2: 1/2 mile pace figure - final time figure
  • Hot: >4
  • Even: >=-4 and <=4
  • Cold: <-4

Race Labels:

Hot: Gap1 and Gap2 Hot
Solid: Gap1 or Gap2 Hot, the other Even
Even: Gap1 and Gap2 Even
Mild: Gap1 or Gap2 Even, the other Cold
Cold: Gap1 and Gap2 Cold
Peak: Gap1 Cold, Gap2 Hot
Valley: Gap1 Hot, Gap2 Cold

These are the totals:

Code:
Label	Count	Percentage
Hot	14253	0.29
Solid	14959	0.31
Even	7676	0.16
Mild	8050	0.16
Cold	1422	0.03
Valley	1985	0.04
Peak	506	0.01
There is a lot to chew on here I hope. We can break it down by specific distances later, add more data, surfaces, distances, etc. But this is a pretty good start IMO. I'm happy to hear any suggestions on the labels but it isn't easy, trust me!

Next step should be to see what wins these race shapes and compare it to the general population.

Last edited by cj; 09-24-2018 at 06:56 PM.
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Old 09-24-2018, 07:05 PM   #170
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I'm looking forward to the break down between turf and dirt. Turf paces can be all over the map and my own research indicates that variations that might impact dirt races often don't impact turf races as much.
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Old 09-24-2018, 07:38 PM   #171
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Good stuff cj. This suggests our observations that the valley pattern is uncommon. I'm eagerly awaiting the next part concerning what the impact values of the different patterns are.
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Old 09-24-2018, 08:22 PM   #172
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Could we have the 7-furlong races investigated separately? After all...this is called the "bastard distance"...and 7 furlongs was the distance of the race in question here.
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Old 09-24-2018, 08:27 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Could we have the 7-furlong races investigated separately? After all...this is called the "bastard distance"...and 7 furlongs was the distance of the race in question here.
Patience grasshopper, I've mentioned that already. Gotta build the infrastructure soundly first. 😁
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Old 09-24-2018, 08:28 PM   #174
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Good stuff so far!
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Old 09-24-2018, 08:35 PM   #175
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Patience grasshopper, I've mentioned that already. Gotta build the infrastructure soundly first. 😁
Take your time...we ain't going nowhere.
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Old 09-24-2018, 10:16 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Take your time...we ain't going nowhere.
Here is a look at 7f only, same criteria:

Code:
Label	Count	Pct
Hot	2112	0.32
Solid	2136	0.32
Even	805	0.12
Mild	1079	0.16
Cold	184	0.03
Valley	295	0.04
Peak	77	0.01
Better stuff tomorrow, just laying the framework.
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Old 09-25-2018, 07:22 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Could we have the 7-furlong races investigated separately? After all...this is called the "bastard distance"...and 7 furlongs was the distance of the race in question here.
Totally agree on 7 furlongs being a different animal....

Screen one is my figs for 7 Furs at Bel...

Screen two is my figs for 6 furs at Bel...
Look how much better the 7 & 1 fared running at 7 furs

Until l you deem 6 & 7 are the same at your track....you have to prove it

Mike

Attached Images
File Type: jpg 7.JPG (92.2 KB, 18 views)
File Type: jpg 6.JPG (84.9 KB, 15 views)

Last edited by mikesal57; 09-25-2018 at 07:24 AM.
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Old 09-25-2018, 09:00 AM   #178
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Here is a look at 7f only, same criteria:

Code:
Label	Count	Pct
Hot	2112	0.32
Solid	2136	0.32
Even	805	0.12
Mild	1079	0.16
Cold	184	0.03
Valley	295	0.04
Peak	77	0.01
Better stuff tomorrow, just laying the framework.
Looks pretty similar to the distribution for 6f as far as the relative frequencies of the patterns employed. Now to see if their is a difference in win percentages for the different patterns between the 2 distances.
In other words, the 2 distances are similar in how they are ridden. Next step is to see if their is a difference in success rate of the different patterns between the the 2 distances.
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Old 09-25-2018, 09:23 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by mikesal57 View Post
Totally agree on 7 furlongs being a different animal....

Screen one is my figs for 7 Furs at Bel...

Screen two is my figs for 6 furs at Bel...
Look how much better the 7 & 1 fared running at 7 furs

Until l you deem 6 & 7 are the same at your track....you have to prove it

Mike
This data suggests that horses have different abilities at 6F vs. 7F . However it is based on using one set of criteria from one piece of software in one race. A larger study may or may not show the same.

Such information can be useful in trying to predict performance at one distance based on performance at the other. What we are trying to study here, however, is how different patterns have different success rates and then whether this varies at different distances and surfaces, which are somewhat different questions.

Last edited by bobphilo; 09-25-2018 at 09:30 AM.
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Old 09-25-2018, 11:03 AM   #180
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Some data based on the original data set. Got some stuff to do so not sure how much more I'll get to today. Probably best to see what people think. Probably need to generate impact values from this and see what it says but the data seems to flow about as expected---the slower the pace, the better horses near the front do. Not exactly earth shattering news but the numbers are the numbers.

The oddballs, peak and valley, are a bit interesting. Peak seems to play closest to a mild pace. Valley seems to play closest to a solid pace. This would indicate to me the opening 1/4 is more important than the 2nd quarter in determining the running style of the winner.

Code:
	P1 Avg	P2 Avg	BL1 Avg	BL2 Avg	W2W	Top2
ALL	0.68	0.78	1.98	1.40	0.29	0.49
						
Hot	0.60	0.70	3.19	2.27	0.19	0.35
Solid	0.69	0.78	1.87	1.43	0.29	0.48
Even	0.74	0.82	1.19	0.86	0.35	0.58
Mild	0.76	0.84	1.07	0.63	0.38	0.60
Cold	0.79	0.86	0.71	0.50	0.45	0.71
						
Peak	0.76	0.81	1.20	1.37	0.40	0.63
Valley	0.68	0.80	1.97	0.87	0.25	0.45
P1 average = position in the field after 1/4 mile expressed as a percentage to account for varying field sizes. (ex: 1st - 1.00, last = 0.00 regardless of field size, 4th of 11 = 0.70)

P2 average = same as above but after a half mile

BL1 average = average beaten lengths after 1/4 mile

BL2 average = average beaten lengths after 1/2 mile

W2W = winners that led after the opening 1/4 mile

Top2 = winners in top two after opening 1/4 mile
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