MLF bet or pass

[Aner]

We all know the favorite in a race is the most likely winner and, in the absence of good handicapping, is also the bet that looses the least money long-term.

Almost all exotic bets require an answer to the question - Is the favorite a bet or a pass. If you are a serial bettor, it is important to decide this for each race and if vertical exotics are your thing, you must decide whether or not to use the favorite on top, in the place or show slot or to pass on it altogether.

I have been testing this yes and no question and think I can identify some favorites which are are more likely to win both in frequency and in dollars returned. To keep myself honest and to test the system going forward, I plan to post my picks here. Since I do not plan to watch the board, I will use the morning line favorite. There will be 3 categories: 1) win bets of the MLF's I like. 2) win bets of the MLF's I think are bad bets. and 3) win bets on the horse I like when the MLF is a toss.

To eliminate decimals, I will be making phantom $20 bets in each of these categories.

[Aner]

10/7/21

Bet these morning line favorites to win

Bel 3----#6
Bel 5----#3
Bel 7----#7
Bel 9----#13
GP 3-----#3
GP 5-----#6
GP 7-----#2
WO 3----#2
WO 7----#6

Do not bet these MLF

Bel 2-----#2
Bel 6-----#8
Bel 8-----#3
GP 1-----#3
GP 2-----#2
GP 6-----#9
GP 8-----#7
WO 1----#2
WO 2----#2
WO 4----#3
WO 5----#5
WO 6----#2
WO 8----#6

Consider these instead of MLF

Bel 2-----#7
Bel 6-----#2
Bel 8-----#1
GP 1-----#1
GP 2-----#1
GP 6-----#1
GP 8-----#5
WO 1----#6
WO 2----#8
WO 4----#10
WO 5----#10
WO 6----#1
WO 8----#1

[Aner]

10/7/21

Bet these morning line favorites to win

Bel 3----#6----place
Bel 5----#3---$3.30
Bel 7----#7
Bel 9----#13---show
GP 3-----#3---show
GP 5-----#6---place
GP 7-----#2---$4.40
WO 3----#2
WO 7----#6---$4.50

3/9 = -$58

Do not bet these MLF

Bel 2-----#2---pl
Bel 6-----#8---sh
Bel 8-----#3---$5.80
GP 1-----#3---pl
GP 2-----#2---$5.00
GP 6-----#9---$9.40
GP 8-----#7---sh
WO 1----#2---pl
WO 2----#2---sh
WO 4----#3
WO 5----#5---$12.60
WO 6----#2---sh
WO 8----#6

4/13 = +$68

Consider these instead of MLF

Bel 2-----#7
Bel 6-----#2
Bel 8-----#1---pl
GP 1-----#1---sh
GP 2-----#1
GP 6-----#1---pl
GP 8-----#5---$14.80
WO 1----#6---sh
WO 2----#8---scratched
WO 4----#10
WO 5----#10
WO 6----#1---$17.00
WO 8----#1---$11.20


3/12 = +$190

[Aner]

10/8/21

Bet these morning line favorites to win

Bel 5----#10
Bel 7----#2
Bel 9----#6

Kee 2---#9
Kee 4---#3
Kee 8---#6

WO 4----#3
WO 7----#3
WO 8---#7

SA 2----#5
SA 6---#7
SA 9---#4

Do not bet these MLF

Bel 1-----#2
Bel 2-----#8
Bel 4-----#1
Bel 6-----#3
Bel 8-----#4
Bel 9-----#5

Kee 3----#5
Kee 5----#2
Kee 6----#6
Kee 7----#4
Kee 9----#1
Kee 10---#9

WO 1----#12
WO 2----#3
WO 3----#9
WO 5----#7
WO 6----#1

SA 1-----#7
SA 3-----#1
SA 4-----#10
SA 5-----#6
SA 7-----#1
SA 8-----#9





Consider these in place of rejected ones:

Bel 1-----#4
Bel 2-----#9
Bel 4-----#8
Bel 6-----#6
Bel 8-----#7
Bel 9-----#6

Kee 3----#1
Kee 5----#1
Kee 6----#5
Kee 7----#1
Kee 9----#2
Kee 10---#2

WO 1----#11
WO 2----#4
WO 3----#6
WO 5----#3
WO 6----#7

SA 1-----#4
SA 3-----#2
SA 4-----#5
SA 5-----#3
SA 7-----#6
SA 8-----#4

[Aner]

10/8/21

Bet these morning line favorites to win

Bel 5----#10---pl
Bel 7----#2----sh
Bel 9----#6----88

Kee 2---#9---out
Kee 4---#3---pl
Kee 8---#6----44

WO 4----#3---out
WO 7----#3----25
WO 8----#7---out

SA 2----#5----50
SA 6----#7----pl
SA 9----#4----pl

4/12 = -$33

Do not bet these MLF

Bel 1-----#2---40
Bel 2-----#8---out
Bel 4-----#1---77
Bel 6-----#3---59
Bel 8-----#4---out
Bel 9-----#5---pl

Kee 3----#5---out
Kee 5----#2---96
Kee 6----#6---out
Kee 7----#4---pl
Kee 9----#1---68
Kee 10---#9---pl

WO 1----#12--scratched
WO 2----#3----pl
WO 3----#9----out
WO 5----#7----pl
WO 6----#1---pl

SA 1-----#7---out
SA 3-----#1---out
SA 4-----#10--sh
SA 5-----#6---out
SA 7-----#1---60
SA 8-----#9---out

6/22 = -$30





Consider these in place of rejected ones:

Bel 1-----#4---out
Bel 2-----#9---pl
Bel 4-----#8---out
Bel 6-----#6---out
Bel 8-----#7---out
Bel 9-----#6---88

Kee 3----#1---pl
Kee 5----#1---sh
Kee 6----#5---pl
Kee 7----#1---out
Kee 9----#2---out
Kee 10---#2---out

WO 1----#11--out
WO 2----#4---out
WO 3----#6---61
WO 5----#3---out
WO 6----#7---out

SA 1-----#4---out
SA 3-----#2---pl
SA 4-----#5---out
SA 5-----#3---pl
SA 7-----#6---out
SA 8-----#4---out


2/22 = -$291

[Robert Fischer]

Interesting

You are doing well at this.

Obviously you have some methods that are bringing you to an opinion.

semantics - I call those methods 'models'

and they are the crux of success in this idea. When you find which ones are really impactful, and have the patience to search them out and wait them out, it gives some chance at having a positive angle.


old spiel ;




The most elementary, important insight, related to our Pari-mutuel System, is the fact that our system is 'Favorite-Centric'. By definition, the favorite has the largest market share of each pool. In order to overcome the takeout (often 15-25% taken out of pools before payouts are calculated), you absolutely must be right about the favorite. If that isn't already obvious, let that sink in. Every horse has a bucket of money in front of it. The BIG BUCKET is in front of the Favorite.

[Aner]

10/09/21

Bet these MLF to win:


Kee 3---#8
Kee 4---#1
Kee 6---#2
Kee 7---#6
Kee 8---#3
Kee 9---#1

WO 1---#3
WO 2---#10
WO 6---#10
WO 7---#8
WO 9---#4
WO 10--#6

SA 7---#4
SA 9---#11

Pass These MLF's:

Kee 1---#5
Kee 2---#5
Kee 10--#10
Kee 11--#7

WO 3----#2
WO 4----#9
WO 5----#9
WO 8----#4

SA 3----#9
SA 5----#8
SA 6----#4
SA 8----#6

Alternates when passing MLF:

Kee 1---#8
Kee 2---#7
Kee 10--#4
Kee 11--#10

WO 3----#5
WO 4----#2
WO 5----#8
WO 8----#5

SA 3----#2
SA 5----#9
SA 6----#1
SA 8----#7

[Aner]

10/09/21

Bet these MLF to win:


Kee 3---#8---sh
Kee 4---#1---out
Kee 6---#2---30
Kee 7---#6---42
Kee 8---#3---out
Kee 9---#1---pl

WO 1---#3---out
WO 2---#10--pl
WO 6---#10--68
WO 7---#8---out
WO 9---#4---33
WO 10--#6---sh

SA 7---#4---out
SA 9---#11---sh

4/14 = -$107

Pass These MLF's:

Kee 1---#5---pl
Kee 2---#5---50
Kee 10--#10--out
Kee 11--#7---82

WO 3----#2---out
WO 4----#9---out
WO 5----#9---out
WO 8----#4---pl

SA 3----#9---sh
SA 5----#8---out
SA 6----#4---out
SA 8----#6---pl


2/12 = -$108

Alternates when passing MLF:

Kee 1---#8---out
Kee 2---#7---out
Kee 10--#4---out
Kee 11--#10--out

WO 3----#5---sh
WO 4----#2---out
WO 5----#8---pl
WO 8----#5---sh

SA 3----#2---48
SA 5----#9---pl
SA 6----#1---206
SA 8----#7---60


3/12 = +$74

[FakeNameChanged]

Aner, Interesting concept. What are the criteria for the replacement picks on MLF's that are tossed? Is it some comprehensive handicapping system, or just "eyeball" capping?

[Aner]

Mostly the best class horse if it was close up in one of last two races.

[Aner]

10/10/21

Bet these MLF to win:


Kee 3---#6
Kee 7---#7
Kee 8---#7
Kee 9---#4
Kee 10--#12

WO 1---#6
WO 5---#7
WO 9---#6
WO 10--#2

SA 2---#6
SA 5---#4
SA 8---#3
SA 9---#4

Pass These MLF's:

Kee 1---#7
Kee 2---#7
Kee 5---#1
Kee 6---#12

WO 2----#10
WO 4----#9
WO 6----#5
WO 7----#1
WO 8----#8
WO 11---#2

SA 1----#8
SA 3----#5
SA 4----#5
SA 6----#5
SA 7----#2

Alternates when passing MLF:

Kee 1---#2
Kee 2---#1
Kee 5---#3
Kee 6---#8

WO 2----#3
WO 4----#5
WO 6----#10
WO 7----#9
WO 11---#8

SA 1----#7
SA 3----#2
SA 4----#2
SA 6----#12
SA 7----#9

[Aner]

10/10/21

Bet these MLF to win:


Kee 3---#6---out
Kee 7---#7---out
Kee 8---#7---38
Kee 9---#4---24
Kee 10--#12--78

WO 1---#6---28
WO 5---#7---47
WO 9---#6---pl
WO 10--#2--out

SA 2---#6---out
SA 5---#4---pl
SA 8---#3---out
SA 9---#4---out

5/13 = -$43

Pass These MLF's:

Kee 1---#7---sh
Kee 2---#7---sh
Kee 5---#1---sh
Kee 6---#12--124

WO 2----#10--sh
WO 4----#9---out
WO 6----#5---out
WO 7----#1---out
WO 8----#8---pl
WO 11---#2---out

SA 1----#8---out
SA 3----#5---pl
SA 4----#5---sh
SA 6----#5---out
SA 7----#2 ---sh

1/15 = -$176


Alternates when passing MLF:

Kee 1---#2---out
Kee 2---#1---pl
Kee 5---#3---out
Kee 6---#8---out

WO 2----#3---pl
WO 4----#5---303
WO 6----#10--pl
WO 7----#9---sh
WO 11---#8---out

SA 1----#7---out
SA 3----#2---out
SA 4----#2---pl
SA 6----#12--sh
SA 7----#9---out

1/15 = +$3

[Aner]

WEEKLY SUMMARY

MFL which were bet:

# of races = 48
# of wins = 16
% hits = 33%

$ bet = $960
$ back = $719
$ lost =-$241
% loss = -25%



MFL not bet:

# of races = 62
# of wins = 13
% hits = 21%

$ bet = $1240
$ back = $1160
$ lost =-$80
% loss = -6%

Alternates:

# of races = 61
# of wins = 9
% hits = 15%

$ bet = $1220
$ back = $1196
$ lost =-$24
% loss = -2%

[Aner]

10/14/21

Bet these morning line favorites to win


Kee 6---#2
Kee 7---#7
Kee 8---#6
Kee 9---#1

WO 4----#10

Lrl 3---#5
Lrl 4---#4
Lrl 5---#10



Do not bet these MLF

Kee 2----#5
Kee 3----#6
Kee 4----#7
Kee 5----#3
Kee 10---#5


WO 2----#10
WO 3----#7
WO 5----#3
WO 6----#10
WO 7----#5
WO 8----#11

Lrl 2----#4
Lrl 6----#3
Lrl 7----#7
Lrl 8----#4
Lrl 9----#6


Alternates:


Kee 2----#6
Kee 3----#4
Kee 4----#8
Kee 5----#7
Kee 10---#4



WO 2----#3
WO 3----#5
WO 5----#11
WO 6----#8
WO 7----#6
WO 8----#1

Lrl 2----#3
Lrl 6----#11
Lrl 7----#9
Lrl 8----#6
Lrl 9----#7

[Aner]

10/14/21

Bet these morning line favorites to win


Kee 6---#2---pl
Kee 7---#7---out
Kee 8---#6---38
Kee 9---#1---out

WO 4----#10--50

Lrl 3---#5----36
Lrl 4---#4----sh
Lrl 5---#10---sh

3/8 = -$36



Do not bet these MLF

Kee 2----#5---40
Kee 3----#6---sh
Kee 4----#7---pl
Kee 5----#3---36
Kee 10---#5---sh


WO 2----#10---out
WO 3----#7---out
WO 5----#3---out
WO 6----#10--sh
WO 7----#5---out
WO 8----#11--out

Lrl 2----#4---out
Lrl 6----#3---out
Lrl 7----#7---out
Lrl 8----#4---32
Lrl 9----#6---44

4/16 = -$168


Alternates:


Kee 2----#6---sh
Kee 3----#4---out
Kee 4----#8---sh
Kee 5----#7---pl
Kee 10---#4---out



WO 2----#3---80
WO 3----#5---37
WO 5----#11--out
WO 6----#8---out
WO 7----#6---sh
WO 8----#1---sh

Lrl 2----#3---out
Lrl 6----#11--sh
Lrl 7----#9---56
Lrl 8----#6---out
Lrl 9----#7---out


3/16 = -$147