BRIS CLASS RATINGS

[Larry Hamilton]

mistake! I forgot that class is a performance based calculation, that would mean of course the highest one is the winner...sorry for getting your hopes up

[trp]

One area where I'm sure the BRIS Race Ratings and Class Ratings are very misleading is top turf races with European entrants.

I think almost everyone would agree that the Euros have pretty much demonstrated their superiority at the highest level on turf. However, check out BRIS's past performances for last year's Breeders' Cup turf races.

The Class Ratings for High Chaparral, Falbrav, Islington, and Six Perfections were significantly lower than their US-based turf counterparts; and the Race Ratings for Europe's biggest races, for example, the Arc, King George VI, and Epsom Derby, were no better than (or worse than) a lot of US G2's and G3's on turf.

I sent an email to BRIS about this and was told that the Race Ratings include all the horses, top to bottom, and so a few weak competitors can hurt the rating. I'm not sure that explains the situation, but in any case, the ratings are unusable "as is" for the Euros in these races.

[Larry Hamilton]

In all the years I have been doing this--handicapping and data basing--I have yet to find any single number or any combination that is predictive of grass races. I suspect the reason is reflected in how grass races are usually run. They saunter around the track, jockey for position, and explode at the top of the stretch.

This style of running also negates pace figures, speed figures, and any other kinds of figures I can think of. It also may be the reason that all the other countries that are strictly grass have no Daily Racing Form. What good would it do? What is remarkable is that European favorites win about as frequently as American, and they do it without what we consider necessary information. Go Figure

Before you throw Helms and Thomlinson at me, I once took weeks to type both of their Sire List books about Grass and Mud into a data base. I did this so I could prove or disprove for myself their claims. As both these men make a living with those Sire books, I choose not to publicize what I found.

[Niko]

I haven't done a lot with pedigree and am pretty clueless in that area. I do look at FTS win % in connection with the trainer but that's about it. You may save me (and others) a ton of time because I've recently been trying sires and dam sires with little luck-but I'm new to it. Did you find anything positive in the very elite sires, dan's sires? How did you do your test, win %-roi or both. I'm guessing from your past work that it was pretty thorough.
I know Pizzolla doesn't pay attention to it. I have found it helps to know if a horse has the chance to go a long route of ground but I'm not too concerned what's its rating is only that it can (example: Funny Cide last year)

[acorn54]

i agree with larry
in the software i use, all the pace figures, and other factors are given weights and used to form a method. the computer calculates the ideal weights.
i have yet to find any combination of pace figures or any other figures (class,prime number) that result in a postive r.o.i.
guy

[Larry Hamilton]

I dont know squat about pedigree either, other than what I can count/measure. Perhaps, someone will come on here and smarten us up?

[JackS]

Niko- It's my opinion that almost any horse can route. The ones that consistantly back up routing are doing so because they "won't" versus "can't". These same tendancies show up on horses switching surfaces such as dirt to turf, fast to wet etc. FTS maidens that show breeding for particular surfaces/distances can be given extra credit during your hanicapping but by the time a horse reaches the end of his 3yo season or the beginning of his fourth year, most of the things a horse can do and won't do are visable. Certain trainers can perform "turnarounds" with some horses if your inclined to track trainers.

[Jeff P]

I experimented with and gave up the idea of using sires on the turf a few years back. My concept was finding and betting a handful of turf sires that were below the radar of other players. The trouble is the limited sample sizes you start working with for each individual sire. For example- For the year 1999 offspring by Rahy won 6 of 47 Turf Routes on the circuits that I played at an average win mutuel of $19.00. For the year 2000 Rahy's offspring went 8 of 62 with an average win mutuel of $17.00- not as good but still a positive roi. But for the year 2001 I only had a single Rahy offspring turf route winner from 41 starts. What was the reason for the fall off? Was the sample size too small to begin with? A few queries into my database told me that half of the Rahy winners I had during the first two years came from only three horses. When looking at individual sires you often see results like that. I eventually discarded the idea. I believed then, as I do now, that my time could be better spent elsewhere.

I have often wanted to take the time to identify sires whose offspring perform dismally under certain conditions. For example- sires whose offspring have no chance on wet tracks or sires whose offspring have horrible records routing as three year olds, etc. I can see where that kind of information might be useful.

[JackS]

My knowledge of breeding is virtually zilch. Turf racing is so much different than dirt that I do not trust any number I may make for a horse due to the extreme swings in times posted in the PP's even over the same track and going the same distance. I do not mind playing the NW Allowance types as I rely on the conditions to point me to a possible winner. Anything else is usually a blur of figures that are meaningless to me. IMO european handicappers are very adept at this type of racing, maybe because they grew up with it. Rainy days are always welcome. Turf goes to dirt and possibilities increase.

[Larry Hamilton]

All these recent comments on this thread lead to an interesting question. If we gamblers dont know enough about pedigree to assign a predictive number to potential grass, how do potential buyers make statements like, "THis one will grass."

There seems to be some disconnect between what the two groups can predict.

[PSTfredk]

i would just like to point out my view point on all the talk
about bris net. if i had a secret way to use there info to beat
the races like he does i wouldn't tell a soul not even my mother. if he uses bris net he is getting paid to endose them so all the capper in the world will buy them to try and figue out what and
how he is doing with them increasing interest in there product
sales a bunch. the guy is good and he also as a big big big bank roll we have heard about all the great wins but i wonder if he ever looses and how much

[Larry Hamilton]

right on fred...except, I might tell mom ..maybe

but, so far all we have done is idle speculation

[Niko]

A number of years ago I had a chance to talk to a breeder at a small track. I was a mutual teller and he had hit on a nice score on a first time turf starter that he helped breed. The only things I remember is that he said lineage was important but it wasn't a crystal ball either. You never knew what was going to happen until the horse started training. It was a matter of percentages and being a little better than the next guy. I wish I had run into him now because I'd be able to ask some better questions.
Just looking at all the horses that are bought and the results they have. Breeding is important but there are a lot of horses that become busts and a lot that surprise. Maybe someone here has a breeding background (horses that is)

[Blackgold]

Dear PA Pals,

Let me submit an idea that may partially unravel what the guy is doing. . .and I'm emphasize partial.

But first, let's review the facts.

1. The guy is a professional handicapper and has hit over $1 million in pick 6 totals in about 12 months.

2. The guy has an advanced degree that required a lot of math.

3. He says he does no intuitive handicapping at all, but downloads a BRIS file and constructs his tickets based on the Class ratings. Of course, he is downloading the file into his own number cruncher.

4. BRIS says this about their class ratings.
a. A one point difference is significant
b. A 2 point difference is substantial
c. Look for top rated horses going off at long odds to cash big

I say the guy is doing something like this.

Look at this race today at SA. Here are the class ratings from race 5, a turf event.

115.7
115.6
115.2

114.8
114.8

113.8
113.4

111.8
111.5

By the way the winner of the race was the 113.8 (#2 Sheikh Fever), also the Fulcrum in the race for the TMMers.

The order of finish by class rating was 113.8- 115.6- 113.4- 115.7

Anyway, looking at the gaps in ratings above of all the horses, I say the guy is constructing his pick 6 tickets by weighing his tickets by groups A-115s, B-114s, C-113s and D-111's.

The A groug appears on most, if not all tickets and the B's and C's appear, weighted by investment, on a smaller number of tickets and the D's may not be on any ticket.

I submit that he then correlates the weighing of the tickets by the ML odds and determines the percent chance he has of hitting the ticket and will the ticket pay more in relation to his investment, in other words does he have an overlay.

Those of you that have a great deal of experience with databases may be able to make one that partially emulates the above idea.

Regardless, the guy is making money. That one $760K pick 6 coveres for lots of misses.

[PSTfredk]

one big score makes for a lot of bull s**t

it will keep him in the news until the big hit that somebody claims

they used bris net p.p. to arrive at the winners