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10-29-2021, 01:02 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Software Idea
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as
first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.
print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses
Just an idea
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10-29-2021, 01:39 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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well if you want it bad enough, there are already software programs for sale that can do what you want, but none of them cost the price of pretzel.
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10-29-2021, 08:07 AM
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#3
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as
first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.
print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses
Just an idea
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A quick idea is to give Norcalgreg "Pace-View" a call....
He just came out with his new program Speed Demons
Maybe his programmer can do a reverse of what he provides for Greg...
Just a thought..
Mike
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10-29-2021, 08:58 AM
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#4
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,793
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as
first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.
print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses
Just an idea
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You can see all of that in several programs already.
I might think that your idea was probably good in the 80's. But with Super Trainers and form reversals with the crooks, you are going to get burned many times making your printout useless
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10-29-2021, 12:31 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,912
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
You can see all of that in several programs already.
I might think that your idea was probably good in the 80's. But with Super Trainers and form reversals with the crooks, you are going to get burned many times making your printout useless
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Aside from what you mentioned, the nature of TStats has always been how difficult it is to properly apply the statistics.
It's just so difficult to decipher the GO signs from the STOP signs.
The big challenges (for a programmer) would be the collection of a massive amount of data (to build the many trainer stats) and the programmability by the end user to select which angles they want to use.
Even more - the idea that those angles would be modifiable.
IOW, this is not trivial programming.
(This part is not meant as a commercial)
In HSH, we have very robust trainer stats. Most are angles the handicapper has never seen before anywhere.
Best example being Performance Stats
Specifically, stuff like "How does the trainer do when his horse is RANKED 1st (or 2nd,3rd,FH,RH) for speed rating in the last race? (or best-of-last-2, BL3, BL4, Avg2, Avg3, etc.)
They are also "programmable," so that you can use or not use whatever you want, including IVs, $Nets, PIV, total wins, "trying ratio" (i.e. Does this horse look like the trainer is trying today?)
As I recall, this was roughly 150-200 hours of programming for me.
Definitely does not lend itself to be anything remotely close to "pretzel pricing." LOL
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10-29-2021, 10:53 PM
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#6
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Neg Trainer ROI Report SA 10-29
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
A quick idea is to give Norcalgreg "Pace-View" a call....
He just came out with his new program Speed Demons
Maybe his programmer can do a reverse of what he provides for Greg...
Just a thought..
Mike
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Steve, my programmer extraordinaire...and I were discussing Teddy's post. The first thought was--what parameters would you need to start? See...if you simply look for trainers with a negative ROI, that's not workable. Some "logo" trainers, as Mark Cramer calls them, are so overbet just on name alone--they may show a 35% win rate-but a neg ROI.
We didn't pursue it any further...but this is a total clusterf____, with just -ROI's. I'm thinking max 10% win, and 20 races min could work...but who knows? Here's what it looked like today for SA
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10-29-2021, 11:24 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
I would like a daily print out of any horse under 3 to one that has very bad trainer angles such as
first after a claim.... 34 starters...3 winners .. .29 roi.
print out so that I can find bad favorites or low odds morning line horses
Just an idea
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First question is what data are you currently working from?
__________________
Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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10-30-2021, 01:58 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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I use htr. ...
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10-30-2021, 02:03 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Steve, my programmer extraordinaire...and I were discussing Teddy's post. The first thought was--what parameters would you need to start? See...if you simply look for trainers with a negative ROI, that's not workable. Some "logo" trainers, as Mark Cramer calls them, are so overbet just on name alone--they may show a 35% win rate-but a neg ROI.
We didn't pursue it any further...but this is a total clusterf____, with just -ROI's. I'm thinking max 10% win, and 20 races min could work...but who knows? Here's what it looked like today for SA
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So the plan would be to dutch the other horses in the race with good angles. Positive roi,and play against the overbet losing roi horses. Clearly there is some dead money in there. Just an idea.....always trying something... Lots of trainers win high percentage but are .50 roi. Big payoffs when you bet against them. If you have the other legit horses.
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10-30-2021, 02:06 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
So the plan would be to dutch the other horses in the race with good angles. Positive roi,and play against the overbet losing roi horses. Clearly there is some dead money in there. Just an idea.....always trying something... Lots of trainers win high percentage but are .50 roi. Big payoffs when you bet against them. If you have the other legit horses.
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The low ROI and low win percentage and low starting odds are the key to the bet ! You might find 3 a day.
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10-30-2021, 08:40 AM
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#11
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
I use htr. ...
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Teddy....if your using HTR
Your can benefit from Access than the Robot....
I too have HTR and have better play creation than Robot can do
mike
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10-30-2021, 11:50 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
Teddy....if your using HTR
Your can benefit from Access than the Robot....
I too have HTR and have better play creation than Robot can do
mike
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What is Access. I have 100 spot plays and they are usually pretty good at finding winners. I have now 3 spots for bad trainers. I so far see if I play races that have say 4 spot plays in them for winners and the race has the loser plays in it I can get higher returns because of dead money on the bad trainer horses.
Make sense to anyone?? The dead money makes it profitable. I exclude any horses over 10 to one ML. bet the rest and take my 8 percent rebate. I can do a test to and run it on here for fun.. We will see I see large payoffs in the races with the high percentage trainers with low roi.
Last edited by teddy; 10-30-2021 at 11:54 AM.
Reason: I
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10-30-2021, 01:12 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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access
Where do you get the data for download into access?
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10-30-2021, 01:34 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Steve, my programmer extraordinaire...and I were discussing Teddy's post. The first thought was--what parameters would you need to start? See...if you simply look for trainers with a negative ROI, that's not workable. Some "logo" trainers, as Mark Cramer calls them, are so overbet just on name alone--they may show a 35% win rate-but a neg ROI.
We didn't pursue it any further...but this is a total clusterf____, with just -ROI's. I'm thinking max 10% win, and 20 races min could work...but who knows? Here's what it looked like today for SA
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can i get this printout from your program??
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10-30-2021, 02:22 PM
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#15
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
can i get this printout from your program??
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Sorry, no Teddy...we considered doing an upgrade with this negative report included, but we can't figure out any viable, mechanical way of producing solid winners (or eliminating losers)
Also, the cost (as Dave mentioned) would be prohibitive.
We do have the Positive Trainer Angles Report, that is producing winners regularly.
-NCG
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