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06-12-2021, 02:20 PM
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#7276
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Anyone notice that Emerald Best-Five card I posted yesterday, had every winner of every race among the contenders?
Rick I'm not the owner of this site-- but in the past, they have asked us not to turn this into a random selection thread, since they already have one of those.
There's no problem with posting a couple picks--or maybe a longshot or two. You're getting a little carried away, though, my friend.
Thanks
-NCG
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06-12-2021, 02:28 PM
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#7277
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Anyone notice that Emerald Best-Five card I posted yesterday, had every winner of every race among the contenders?
Rick I'm not the owner of this site-- but in the past, they have asked us not to turn this into a random selection thread, since they already have one of those.
There's no problem with posting a couple picks--or maybe a longshot or two. You're getting a little carried away, though, my friend.
Thanks
-NCG
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Not totally sure why you keep calling me Rick - but regardless, I thought we were posting plays that we get from systems with your software.
Woulda thought seeing them esp when they win would be a good thing for your software.
Everything I posted was using Best 5 or Platinum but I don't need to contribute to the thread with the picks if that is a problem.
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06-12-2021, 04:57 PM
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#7278
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Who said you "needed" to post anything? I politely explained you were getting a little carried away (a dozen selection posts in one day, from tracks across the country- with no write-up).
You went the defensive route...okay. Maybe someone else can explain it better.
Have a good day
-NCG
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06-13-2021, 08:46 AM
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#7279
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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Whos rick
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06-13-2021, 09:54 AM
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#7280
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sharkey11
Whos rick
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He owned Rick's Club in Casablanca.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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06-13-2021, 10:04 AM
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#7281
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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Oh that rick thank u
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06-13-2021, 11:38 AM
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#7282
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Having Fun
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Maybe someone else can explain it better.
-NCG
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What he is trying to say is that there is another forum for doing the mass selection posts and oddly that forum is called "Selections"
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06-13-2021, 11:43 AM
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#7283
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Having Fun
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayhawk6191
In the 3rd at GP today, Kozy Dreams has a Value of 60, which is the highest possible value, in the Best 5 Consensus. For this year 2021 in the 20 race cards I have played to date (so assume 200+ races), 60 has occurred 15 times and has 9 wins and 3 places. Caveat Emptor
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I got called to go out to Lone Star yesterday so did the Best 5 consensus for both LS and BEL (to go along with my GP) There was 1 60 pointer at both LS and BEL. Both won. 23 cards. 18 appearances. 11 wins
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06-13-2021, 11:45 AM
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#7284
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Having Fun
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
'Kozy is currently 6/5 couple minutes before post.
-NCG
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I think I will refrain from posting 60 pointers before hand. Best 5 consensus is where its at.
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06-13-2021, 12:58 PM
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#7285
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayhawk6191
I got called to go out to Lone Star yesterday so did the Best 5 consensus for both LS and BEL (to go along with my GP) There was 1 60 pointer at both LS and BEL. Both won. 23 cards. 18 appearances. 11 wins
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the question is what is the average mutual win payout for you 11 wins? I guess it depends on what track you are playing but I don't get 60 pointers very often but hey, whatever works for ya, go with it.
Last edited by green80; 06-13-2021 at 01:06 PM.
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06-13-2021, 02:09 PM
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#7286
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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I've been meaning to try to arrive at the "best of the best", so to speak--of the "60-pointers" using that Betting method in that Ken Osterman book as a betting system. It almost assuredly won't work...but you won't know for sure until you give it a shot.
Speaking of giving a shot-here's Best-Five Consensus for Woodbine today:
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06-13-2021, 02:52 PM
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#7287
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Here is a spot play from recent history-that I really had high hopes for.
I called this wonder spot play "READY TO FIRE". Had it programmed into whatever software we were designing at the time.
Here are the "rules":
-MUST BE BACK IN 21 DAYS OR LESS
-FINISHED IN TOP-3 AT LEAST ONE OF LAST TWO
-WITHIN 3 LENGTHS 2ND CALL 1 OF LAST 2
-IN TOP-4 SPEED RATING USING LAST 2 RACES
-TRAINER WINS 14%
-SHOWS A FINISH WITHIN 5 LENGTHS AT TODAY'S PURSE IN RACES LISTED.
The only realistic problem I can see, right off...is it may select mostly favorites (we have enough of those already, thank you)
Today's RTW plays:
CDX 10TH GROUP HUG 3-1
GPX 1ST DREAM OF ANFIELD 7/2
LAD 5TH KAMARA VISION 5/2
MNR 2ND ESCAPE VELOCITY 4-1
MNR 3RD HOT AND SPICY LOVE 9/2
MNR 8TH BOURBON BRYCE 3/5
SA 2ND CHOLLIMA 5/2
SA 2ND YOU WANNA EAR RIP 9/2
SA 3RD FIRST PREZ 5-1
SA 5TH RAILSPLITTER 5/2
Anyhoo the method crashed and burned, and was set aside. I expected better, and and think it can be salvaged with some tweaking. Any suggestions?
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06-13-2021, 04:47 PM
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#7288
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,919
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Anyhoo the method crashed and burned, and was set aside. I expected better, and and think it can be salvaged with some tweaking. Any suggestions?
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Speaking of burnt, I have spent the last 2+ months and a lot -- a lot -- of hours testing systems / spot plays only to find that there's not much out there. Some of it was old stuff I had, and I bought some more recent things to test. Can I get my money back? To be honest, if you think inside the box you are going to land on short-priced horses. There's nothing wrong with that, but the system has to be better than playing the favorite which gets what...37% wins and a .83-ish ROI?
I think some of the algorithms you have in your programs do a real nice job of producing good prices. I don't know those algorithms (obviously), but you probably have some odd combination of things that handicapping "logic" doesn't normally put together. The RTF method you posted uses what most people look at when handicapping -- speed, layoff, trainer rating, up-close, etc. Maybe put some weird angle in there and see what happens.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
Last edited by headhawg; 06-13-2021 at 04:55 PM.
Reason: added info
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06-13-2021, 05:25 PM
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#7289
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Speaking of burnt, I have spent the last 2+ months and a lot -- a lot -- of hours testing systems / spot plays only to find that there's not much out there. Some of it was old stuff I had, and I bought some more recent things to test. Can I get my money back? To be honest, if you think inside the box you are going to land on short-priced horses. There's nothing wrong with that, but the system has to be better than playing the favorite which gets what...37% wins and a .83-ish ROI?
I think some of the algorithms you have in your programs do a real nice job of producing good prices. I don't know those algorithms (obviously), but you probably have some odd combination of things that handicapping "logic" doesn't normally put together. The RTF method you posted uses what most people look at when handicapping -- speed, layoff, trainer rating, up-close, etc. Maybe put some weird angle in there and see what happens.
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Speaking of returning 1/2 of the RPm systems that I thought would make me a better horseplayer I wanted to return the same day
Some of them were actually pretty good and still use in some sort of way now but like what I said before 1/2 of the systems were complete trash
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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06-13-2021, 05:31 PM
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#7290
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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...was wondering if you have anything to add, Brian. What we know already doesn't really help much.
That Woodbine Consensus was picking them all off, including that big winner in the 4th-- until that $121 winner in the later races ended the streak.
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