*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[Jayhawk6191]

So Got Stormy with an 1138 TBlast figure doesn't make Best5

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk6191

So Got Stormy with an 1138 TBlast figure doesn't make Best5

Ironic, huh?

Here's the Exotic Bets Program consensus for the OAKS. Nothing out of the ordinary--except for one horse that seems to pop up a lot: on the far outside MILLEFUEILLE

Not a prediction but just noting her appearance on several noteworthy stats:

[green80]

power numbers are back live in Louisiana, 8th race at EvD last night top power horse Comerunninboys won and paid $20.40

[NorCalGreg]

Sounds good, Mike.

Was looking through a desk drawer, and found a derby ticket I printed out--from the 2015 derby 'Pharoah won. Twin Spires had a derby promo that year...anyone who wagers exactly $15.00 on a horse to win, and he finishes second, those ticket holders would each split one million reward points.

As you can see...I played FIRING LINE, the runner-up that year. I had visions of my acct overflowing with my share of the million points. I mean, how many people could have bet exactly $15 on Firing Line?


.
Evidently quit a few...my share of the million points was redeemable for about $11.

[NorCalGreg]

Before all the hi-tek wizardy came to horse handicapping, there wasn't a whole lot of info to be had. Horses were rated on speed +variant, pace call positions, earnings per start, and anything else one could think of to compare the quality of each entrant.

As the years went by, handicappers became much more sophisticated. Pace figs, call times, final quarters, run-ups, fulcrums, turn times, and on and on became the norm. I recall Pandy from the forum here, making the very statement--that any money won - in the past was a much more important 'capping stat in past years.

I got to wondering what the Oaks would look like if handicapped by APV (AVG PURSE VALUE) and EPS (earnings per start) and nothing else. By "APV" I'm talking the Quirin detailed APV...I'd have to look for the exact method (my programmer did the "rules" for acquiring the APV., but it's the .6 purse for wins, .3 for 2nds, and so on. So yeah, it's a real APV method--the only debate is if it's still viable at all.

6TH G2 ALYSHEBA
TOP APV - ALYSHEBA
TOP EPS - MAXFIELD ✔️

7TH G2 EDGEWOOD
TOP APV - AUNT PEARL
TOP EPS - ZAAJEL

8TH G1 LA TROIEN
TOP APV - SHE DARES THE DEVIL ✔️
TOP EPS - SHE DARES THE DEVIL ✔️

9TH G2 8BELLES
TOP APV - DAY OUT OF THE OFFICE
TOP EPS - ABROGATE

10TH G2 TURFSPORT
TOP APV - DIAMOND OOPS
TOP EPS - DIAMOND OOPS

11TH G1 KENTUCKY OAKS
TOP APV - PAULINE'S PEARL
TOP EPS - MALATHAAT ✔️

In summary...monies won in the past can of course, be important--but don't bet on it unless your contender has other angles and strengths.

Thus ends your old-timey handicapping lesson.

Win some money today, dammit!

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Sorry running a little late today:


.

My Derby play is circled--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

My trifecta play in the KD was 8-14-15. I just took a look and see I entered 8-13-14.

MEDINA SPIRIT, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, AND ROCK YOUR WORLD was the play. I had to look up and see who exactly was the 13 horse: A 50-1 shot named HIDDEN STASH.

Being a little superstitious I'm just gonna leave it 8-13-14.

I used to have a bookie...if you phoned in an exacta, but just one-way and no "box" he would book the "other way" for himself. I know he won on at least one of my attempts to save a bet.

[jim michalak]

congrats greg: your dd calculator on trainer moves had medina spirit as 2nd choice behind the 10, midnight bourbon. awesome tool.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by jim michalak

congrats greg: your dd calculator on trainer moves had medina spirit as 2nd choice behind the 10, midnight bourbon. awesome tool.

Excellent, Jim

I was busy all day yesterday...my daughter still lives in East Oakland, in a semi-decent area. Friday night, middle of the night...someone unknown fired 7 shots into her house. They've had a beef with no one at all, and are completely baffled. The police don't have a clue--no witnesses, of course. It didn't even make the local news, as this kind of violence is a regular occurrence. Only comment they heard... from a neighbor, was that someone had been killed in that house a few years ago.
Believe it or not...Oakland received an award in the 50's as that year's "ALL AMERICAN CITY".
A more accurate name now is "ALL DEMOCRAT-RUN SHITHOLE".

On second thought--maybe "All American City" IS an accurate name for Oakland, nowadays.

Here's the Best-5 Consensus w/scratches removed:


Good luck,

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

9TH race Horse Tourney exacta box contest coming up at SA...I'm in 1st with just this last race to go. I'm breaking out the big guns, and doing a DD calc to see if that can help:





Looks like the 3-7-8 and hope for the best

[OzYank]

Good Luck - I am alive with the pick 4 there and need 3,5,7,8 for the win - looking at your calc I am soooooooo hoping for #3 and a $2600 payday.

[NorCalGreg]

I missed the exacta, but luckily so did every else. I know you would have like to see that horse come in. Someone stuck some major $$$ on that horse--maybe it was Mattress Mack, looking to get even.

Glad you won, anyway Oz. I'd been in a bit of a slump lately, so maybe I'll go on a tear now .

[NorCalGreg]

I don't wish to embarrass anyone, but someone posted picks for WRD. I've had some terrible days--we all have.

This particular gentleman is a customer of Pace-View, very nice man. I just don't know where he got the selections he posted.
And sure, he's welcome to post any picks he cares to.

Anyhoo..here is today's WRD consensus. If you played the early pick-5, you could have cold-punched it in from just the top picks.



*p-5 didn't pay anything, anyway

[NorCalGreg]

#125 Greg Banner - Entry 1 $4.70


Finished in 125th place in the PARX $1,000 Horse Tourney! With just a little luck at all...I could have broken into the top 100

Here's the kicker...my miniscule $4.70 earnings for the entire card was tied with some other guy--so even though we were like, a million dollars away from cashing, they still post the tie-breaker stats.

I didn't need to see this:

Tiebreaker Details: Wins: 1; High Win: $2.60; Places: 0; High Place: $2.10; Shows: 1

Pretty pathetic

[NorCalGreg]

Got my edition of Phillips Racing Newsletter today. Most of you know about it...it has spot plays and methods from readers, as well as reviews of handicapping tools and other horse racing info.

One of the quick methods--PHILLIPS 3RD-BACK METHOD tried out on the 1st 3 races at Parx yesterday.

You check each entry, and circle the contenders. The contenders will have their highest Bris or Beyer (of their last 3) on their 3rd race back. That is the only qualification for contenders.

Now check the contenders for their individual Trainer/Jockey win %. Highest total is your play.

Yesterday, at Parx, in the 1st race their were no contenders qualified.

In the 2nd AEGEAN SEA, ORIGINALY FROM DOT, and MON CHERIE all had their hi-speed rating 3 races back.
The highest tr/jock win % went to 'DOT, making her the selection for race 2. She paid $18.80 to win.

The 3rd race saw J WASS as the method selection...she ran second paying $5.00 to place.

So in summary...after my test run, it's clear this method wins 50%, and avg payoff over $18.

*Okay I'm funnin ya...but these are enjoyable to fool around with, and you can learn a thing or two.

-NCG