Raw Times and Smarty

[cj]

Anyone else tired of reading about how slow Smarty's races are? What a joke! This guy is fast. He ran a better speed figure than top G1 older horses in May of his 3yo year. That is very special. It does not happen often.

As for raw times, anyone remember Monarchos? I'll refresh your memory. Second fastest winning time in Kentucky Derby history. Did this make him a great horse? Hardly! They run as fast as the track superintendent wants them too. The CD supe took much flack over the strip that day. It will be a while before we see a track that fast again, and when we do, it will be despite the maintenance, not because of it.

[BillW]

Every year we have a below average crop of 3 YO's. Guess they changed the definition of average.

[WINMANWIN]

Excellent point C. J. and also GREAT Analogy !

[alysheba88]

Have honestly not read one single column or opinion saying Smarty's races were "too slow". Not one

[Turf2Dirt]

Originally posted by alysheba88
Have honestly not read one single column or opinion saying Smarty's races were "too slow". Not one

Is this the only forum you visit?

If not, you've miraclously avoided the flood of idiots that say this on a daily basis.

[alysheba88]

No this is not the only forum. Again never read it anywhere., certainly not from a media member. I think sometimes people thnk the worst and "create" an opinion to argue against.

I also think that people interpret things funny. Where if someone picked a horse other than Smarty Jones for the Derby that somehow they "hate" Smarty Jones

[cj]

I have read this on several different forums, including about.com and thorograph of all places. I'm not sure why you think I would make this up, check them out for yourself.

[alysheba88]

cj, I am not saying you are making anything up. Just saying I havent read anything about it.

I do think that some (not saying you) are annointing SJ as being Secretariat and when people point out the discrepancy in speed figures between the two that somehow this means they "hate" Smarty Jones.

[BIG HIT]

CJ jim said he think's smarty will lose why he didn't say as those that subscribe to his pick's will be the only one's privy to that.
As for smarty compared to big red he i think lost his mdn debut.?
smarty didn't personally think big red was best of all time but if smarty win belmont by 40 length's to me he get's the top billing as you know big red won by 31.Which showed just how dominnet he was as nobody else ever won by such a hugh margin.

[cj]

You really can't compare speed figures among the older horses, because none were publically available back in the 70s. Raw times is pure folly. Basically, it is impossible to accurately compare horses of different eras. I have to search my Quirin books, I know in there somewhere he gave figures of some of the great horses. But, they wouldn't have the recent horses. One other thing, like it or not, is that speed figures don't really compare across different eras anyway. The main reason is that they are based on how other members of the generation run. If the base group of horses used (say 10,000 claimers = 80) were actually getting faster over time, you'd never see it in the figures. Way too deep to get into now, but think about it.

Was Babe Ruth's 60 home runs better than Barry Bond's 73? I mean, when Babe did it, noone else hit more than 20 or so. But 73 is more by 13. But Babe did it against better quality pitching in less games, etc, etc, etc. You can always find an argument to make the case on either side of these debates. I'll just enjoy it for what it is, watching a great horse, and save the debates for when he is finished.

BIG HIT,

Yes, Sec lost his debut, was DQed once at 2, and lost the Wood Memorial to Angle Light and Sham. He later lost two other times to Onion and Prove Out. Personally, I think Seattle Slew was the better horse, but there is no way to ever really know.

[Valuist]

I remember after the 2001 Derby, a guy who I work with who follows sports a lot, but knows nothing about horse racing, asked me if Monarchos was really the 2nd "best" Derby winner ever. I almost fell over laughing. I tried to explain that raw times mean nothing; its all about the surface and track depth. I don't think he believed me. He knew what he heard on ESPN. I don't think Monarchos EVER won another race.

[delayjf]

.

I think Seattle Slew was the better horse, but there is no way to ever really know.

CJ,

Beyer would disagree with you here, I believe he stated that Big red regularly ran figures in the 120 range while SS ran in the 115 range.

Perhaps some of the sheet players can give us some additional perspective as well, or pehaps some players who have been making figures for that long.

Comparing SJ to Sec, I believe some have pointed out that the final fractions in their respective Preaknesses were compatible.
BUT keep in mind the tremendous move Sec made around the first turn PRIOR to his final fractions. Don't know if the "Pimlico Bias" was in affect or not, if so, Sec's Preakness was all the more impressive.

[fmazur]

BUT keep in mind the tremendous move Sec made around the first turn PRIOR to his final fractions. Don't know if the "Pimlico Bias" was in affect or not, if so, Sec's Preakness was all the more impressive.


In the Sec. race the 1/2 was run in 48 1/5, so Sec. made his move into a slow 1/4.

In the Preakness with Smarty Jones the 1/2 was in 47 1/5 on a dead track with Smarty just off the pace.

How about the move Smarty made from the 3/4's to the mile?

He was 1 length of the lead at the 3/4's and exploded to a 5 length lead by the mile and continued to gain another 6 1/2 lengths from the mile to the finish.

Which move was more impressive? Sec. or S.J. or did you miss the S.J. move?

We can't compare Beyers or Figs as they were not around back in Sec's day, but the DRF speed rating plus varient was. For their races in the Preakness, Sec. ran a 111 and S.J. ran a 113, so for the only figure available, it looks like S.J. was best, at least in the Preakness.

Sec. got a 118 in the Belmount.

[cj]

Total DRF SR + TV for Triple Crown Winners:

Secretariat	342
War Admiral	325
Citation	322
Affirmed	320
Omaha		315
Count Fleet	313
Gallant Fox	306
Whirlaway	306
Seattle Slew	305
Sir Barton	304
Assault		288

Smarty so far, 213.

[trp]

Originally posted by fmazur
We can't compare Beyers or Figs as they were not around back in Sec's day, but the DRF speed rating plus varient was. For their races in the Preakness, Sec. ran a 111 and S.J. ran a 113, so for the only figure available, it looks like S.J. was best, at least in the Preakness.

If you use Secretariat's unofficial, but seemingly more likely to be correct, time of 1:53 2/5, his speed rating would jump to 103, while the track variant might drop a point to 12, for a total of 115 in the Preakness.

In addition, speed ratings were based on track records in 1973 and on best 3-year time now. I believe the calculation of the track variant is also a little different now.