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Poll: What is your primary handicapping method?
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What is your primary handicapping method?

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Old 02-02-2012, 08:11 PM   #61
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by windoor
If I take out a losing spot play or two (so far) I think I can get close to 30%.

Will it continue: I have no idea.

Still, I will entertain some offers

Regards,

Windoor
My friend...you don't have to tinker with your method at all. It's good enough the way it is.

If you can average a 38% ROI while betting on 350 horses a month, then I want you for a partner. Just supply me with your picks...and leave the rest to me.

I will put up all the money and make all the bets...and we will both be rich in no time.

This is a dream come true for me...

Last edited by thaskalos; 02-02-2012 at 08:13 PM.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:15 PM   #62
Dave Schwartz
 
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Quote:
When the advertizers of things I respect and plan on buying think that I am a joke it doesn't sit well bro!
Again, let me be clear and simple about this.

Your methodology seems to work for you and I congratulate you for that.

I am simply suggesting that it is not, in my opinion, the way to teach someone else how to handicap.

Nobody is laughing at you or saying you are a joke.

I asked a question about how many horses you went into a typical day looking at. My reason for doing that is because if you go into a day with (say) 10 horses and play (say) 2 of them, that is a lot of work for 2 plays. It also, for most horse players, not sufficient to satisfy them.

I subscribe to the theory that almost every race is playable on at least one horse. Obviously, some races offer better value than others, just as within a race some horses offer better value than others.

I try to teach people to concentrate on who they don't like as much as who they like. When one finds a low-priced horse that they feel is overrated, then they have found a race that can be turned into profit.



Dave
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:36 PM   #63
CincyHorseplayer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Again, let me be clear and simple about this.

Your methodology seems to work for you and I congratulate you for that.

I am simply suggesting that it is not, in my opinion, the way to teach someone else how to handicap.

Nobody is laughing at you or saying you are a joke.

I asked a question about how many horses you went into a typical day looking at. My reason for doing that is because if you go into a day with (say) 10 horses and play (say) 2 of them, that is a lot of work for 2 plays. It also, for most horse players, not sufficient to satisfy them.

I subscribe to the theory that almost every race is playable on at least one horse. Obviously, some races offer better value than others, just as within a race some horses offer better value than others.

I try to teach people to concentrate on who they don't like as much as who they like. When one finds a low-priced horse that they feel is overrated, then they have found a race that can be turned into profit.



Dave

Dave,

I'm just saying I grade races before noon, for me,my expectations of outcomes.I know what "I" think before the races.I see a lot of potential in races I lower grade and I do bet them and I do play more than 2 races per card.We both know we have to win a good amount of those races to show a positive ROI.

I don't have an inferiority complex.I just saw some of your comments as dismissive.I don't feel isolated or persecuted.Just wanted some more from you on the computer capping.

I have no choice but to rehash what I already said though.The single best and really,remarkably simplest tool I have is grading races like a teacher.It's so simple the idea gets dismissed.I know.I did the same thing.A losing streak brought it back out.Things corrected themselves in short order.There is nothing more exciting than days when what you love is underestimated.And while my judgement isn't methodical,I like my betting to be accorded rules and regulations and be on a dime.Grading races and categorizing payoffs numerically do that for me in respect to % of bets.

Focusing on what you don't like.Dave that might be the key to getting me out of my exotic dolldrums.I started out an exotic bettor,have had a lot of success at it,and know my overall fortune lies there.Talk to you soon.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:49 PM   #64
windoor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
My friend...you don't have to tinker with your method at all. It's good enough the way it is.

If you can average a 38% ROI while betting on 350 horses a month, then I want you for a partner. Just supply me with your picks...and leave the rest to me.

I will put up all the money and make all the bets...and we will both be rich in no time.

This is a dream come true for me...

If your are talking Superfectas, Then count me in. I do well enough with win only, but fail miserably with the exotics.

I always thought a good "figure" man could turn the corner as I get on some nice odd horses from time to time, but can not seem to complete the ticket often enough to make it profitable.

How about a test run of three months (one quarter) to see if viable.

I have my picks to win and a "spot" play that when run wide open produces multiple horses it most races. At select tracks one of them will win at 40% of the time and hit the board at 66% or more.

I can show you a 50K Superfecta (very rare and red-boarding) that hit at Philly a couple of years ago, using just these horses. This is what got me interested, but it is not enough on its own.

Tell me what tracks you play and I will run it through them to see how they did historically. I have all of 2010 of North American tracks in my database.

Regards,

Windoor.
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Old 02-02-2012, 08:52 PM   #65
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I'll vouch for Cincy. He's good, and he'll be at Arlington this summer for the PA gathering.
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Old 02-02-2012, 09:19 PM   #66
bob60566
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer
Dave,

I'm just saying I grade races before noon, for me,my expectations of outcomes.I know what "I" think before the races.I see a lot of potential in races I lower grade and I do bet them and I do play more than 2 races per card.We both know we have to win a good amount of those races to show a positive ROI.

I don't have an inferiority complex.I just saw some of your comments as dismissive.I don't feel isolated or persecuted.Just wanted some more from you on the computer capping.

I have no choice but to rehash what I already said though.The single best and really,remarkably simplest tool I have is grading races like a teacher.It's so simple the idea gets dismissed.I know.I did the same thing.A losing streak brought it back out.Things corrected themselves in short order.There is nothing more exciting than days when what you love is underestimated.And while my judgement isn't methodical,I like my betting to be accorded rules and regulations and be on a dime.Grading races and categorizing payoffs numerically do that for me in respect to % of bets.

Focusing on what you don't like.Dave that might be the key to getting me out of my exotic dolldrums.I started out an exotic bettor,have had a lot of success at it,and know my overall fortune lies there.Talk to you soon.
Dave
Show us your stats as windoor has and Cincy.
Time to stand up and be counted or one of your subscibers might come forward with ther results as the above members have
Mac

Last edited by bob60566; 02-02-2012 at 09:33 PM.
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Old 02-02-2012, 09:39 PM   #67
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Here is the most recent work I shared with some of our users last night.

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Old 02-02-2012, 09:56 PM   #68
jdhanover
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There are many ways to play...and if someone is successful - awesome! I think that the style of play needs to fit the person and the goal. I didn't read Dave's comments as dismissive or anything negative at all. I think he was merely saying that the method you describe might be tough for the typical player.

Cincy - I am in (downtown) Cincinnati a lot for the next few weeks on business. Where in Cincy are you? Shoot me a PM. Look forward to meeting you at the Arlington outing (anyone interested in that - see the separate forum thread I started)

Jon
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Old 02-02-2012, 09:59 PM   #69
bob60566
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Here is the most recent work I shared with some of our users last night.

Thanks Dave

What was the time frame on betting $18,000 on 53 races
and can it be maintened with a bankroll of ?????

Mac
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Old 02-02-2012, 10:12 PM   #70
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Those were consecutive races. I played every race in varying amounts.

Bankroll was based upon a max bet of $1,000 in a race. Practically, I have never had a bet over about $850.

Bankroll necessary? Not sure, but probably relatively small. The biggest draw down I have seen in a single day is about $3,500. Collectively, about $5,500.

Last edited by Dave Schwartz; 02-02-2012 at 10:14 PM.
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Old 02-02-2012, 10:20 PM   #71
bob60566
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Those were consecutive races. I played every race in varying amounts.

Bankroll was based upon a max bet of $1,000 in a race. Practically, I have never had a bet over about $850.

Bankroll necessary? Not sure, but probably relatively small. The biggest draw down I have seen in a single day is about $3,500. Collectively, about $5,500.
Thanks Dave
Very informative for all to see.

Mac
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Old 02-02-2012, 10:30 PM   #72
LottaKash
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Those were consecutive races. I played every race in varying amounts.

Bankroll was based upon a max bet of $1,000 in a race. Practically, I have never had a bet over about $850.

Bankroll necessary? Not sure, but probably relatively small. The biggest draw down I have seen in a single day is about $3,500. Collectively, about $5,500.
Dave, I think you may just be on to something...

Looks as if, you are having more fun nowadays...?

Wasn't always that way, now was it ?

Good....

best,
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Old 02-02-2012, 10:32 PM   #73
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Kashie, no it wasn't.
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Old 02-02-2012, 10:59 PM   #74
iceknight
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thearmada
As a response to the long thread about pen and pencil methods, what is your primary handicapping method? Pen/Pencil and paper, computer, or some other method? Personally I use a just a sharpie pen and mechanical pencil and the daily form/PP's. I have found it to work out for me out for me as I had about an even return for the year, I play strictly for hobby and self enjoyment.

What does everyone else use?
Handicapping, what's that? I just use Narrowrator's selections and laugh my way to the bank..

well seriously, I use a combination of paper/pencil, some mental math and excel for time splits
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Old 02-02-2012, 11:04 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos

I am in need of a personal handicapper...and I just may make you an offer you can't refuse.
haha you are funny.. but are you thinking of investing in a mutuel fund perhaps
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