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Old 01-15-2021, 09:42 PM   #1
PhantomOnTour
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My 'Three Rule' Selection Thread

Not wanting to hijack Half Smoke's thread with my silly picks, I've decided to embarrass myself in my own thread

I stated in that thread that i would only place a bet for one of three reasons:
1) there's a vulnerable favorite and I have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (12-1 or better) that I'm confident can finish in the
top three

I'll post my selections and state which rule they fall under...and hopefully not make a fool of myself.
Fingers crossed.

Feel free to jump in anytime with your analysis or selections. Misery loves company
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Old 01-16-2021, 05:46 PM   #2
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Sigh...here we go...will try to make all of my plays in the $15-$20 range

FG Race 9 - 1m16 turf - Stks100k F&M 4+
RULE 2 in effect
I'm fond of the Room To Finish here currently at 9-1 odds.
Even though she's a La Bred meeting open Stks company, i give her a bona fide shot to hit the exacta in this one.
Very consistent turf performer on her favorite course...she's 9: 5-2-0 at FG and in excellent form. She can be in the mix all the way and possesses a strong closing kick. Not facing any world beaters today.

$3 ex: - w
$10 win:
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Old 01-16-2021, 06:04 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
Sigh...here we go...will try to make all of my plays in the $15-$20 range

FG Race 9 - 1m16 turf - Stks100k F&M 4+
RULE 2 in effect
I'm fond of the Room To Finish here currently at 9-1 odds.
Even though she's a La Bred meeting open Stks company, i give her a bona fide shot to hit the exacta in this one.
Very consistent turf performer on her favorite course...she's 9: 5-2-0 at FG and in excellent form. She can be in the mix all the way and possesses a strong closing kick. Not facing any world beaters today.

$3 ex: - w
$10 win:
Finished -
$3 ex pays $80.40

minus the $16 wager = plus $64.40
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Old 01-17-2021, 05:44 PM   #4
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GP Race 10 - 1m AlwOC f4+
RULE 3 - longshot going off at 12-1 that i think can hit the board

Taking a bit of a shot on the Extra Effort to run big today and get a piece. She seems a bit off form but I think Saez puts her right on the lead and plays 'catch me if you can'.
She can make the front if he wants it as there aren't really any pure E types in this race, and her pace numbers (by my figs) are the best in the field.

Need a minimum price of 12-1.
The play:

$1 TRI: ww
$1 TRI: ww
$2 EX: w
$6 WIN:

($19 wagered)
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Old 01-17-2021, 05:50 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
GP Race 10 - 1m AlwOC f4+
RULE 3 - longshot going off at 12-1 that i think can hit the board

Taking a bit of a shot on the Extra Effort to run big today and get a piece. She seems a bit off form but I think Saez puts her right on the lead and plays 'catch me if you can'.
She can make the front if he wants it as there aren't really any pure E types in this race, and her pace numbers (by my figs) are the best in the field.

Need a minimum price of 12-1.
The play:

$1 TRI: ww
$1 TRI: ww
$2 EX: w
$6 WIN:

($19 wagered)
Finished 5-4-2-10
She gave it a go, leading until midstretch and then faltered at 16-1

Total plus/minus = plus $45.40 after today's loss
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Old 01-17-2021, 06:33 PM   #6
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So far so good...I will be following along...unless I'm mistaking you for somebody else, your handicapping chops were always rock-solid around here..
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Old 01-18-2021, 06:20 PM   #7
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FG Race 8 - 5.5f Turf MSW f3yr old
RULE 2: a horse i like at overlaid odds...actually, i should make this one RULE 4: angle plays that i can't resist

I'm going with the Vincaia, a first time starter for Brad Cox.
The angle here is the sales price compared to the stud fee. I take a second look at any FTS who sells for more than 10x their sire's stud fee. I take a serious look if it's 15x the stud fee, and i almost always bet if it's more than that. This gal sold for $575,000 which is over 16x the stud fee for Bernardini, who stands for $35,000.
I'm sure she will run well today...solid pedigree, excellent trainer, and a very good turf jock in Bridgmohan up (he's 20% on the grass). I need my price though. She's currently 6-1 and i will set that as my minimum accepted odds as this field is large and has a few good runners with experience.
Wish me luck.

The play:
$2 ex w
$9 win

($17 wagered)
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Old 01-18-2021, 06:35 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
FG Race 8 - 5.5f Turf MSW f3yr old
RULE 2: a horse i like at overlaid odds...actually, i should make this one RULE 4: angle plays that i can't resist

I'm going with the Vincaia, a first time starter for Brad Cox.
The angle here is the sales price compared to the stud fee. I take a second look at any FTS who sells for more than 10x their sire's stud fee. I take a serious look if it's 15x the stud fee, and i almost always bet if it's more than that. This gal sold for $575,000 which is over 16x the stud fee for Bernardini, who stands for $35,000.
I'm sure she will run well today...solid pedigree, excellent trainer, and a very good turf jock in Bridgmohan up (he's 20% on the grass). I need my price though. She's currently 6-1 and i will set that as my minimum accepted odds as this field is large and has a few good runners with experience.
Wish me luck.

The play:
$2 ex w
$9 win

($17 wagered)
Finished 10-3-6-2
My girl went to the front, duked it out, held the lead briefly in the lane and was swallowed up...ran 5th. Good effort but no cigar

TOTAL WAGERED: $52.00
TOTAL RETURNED: $80.40
PLUS $28.40
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Old 01-21-2021, 05:56 PM   #9
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FG Race 7 - 6f OClmn1x/n2l 4+
Rule 2 - horse at overlaid odds

Can't believe his price is this high, which gives a little cause for pause, but I'll take the Red Clay Magic to be a big factor throughout and hopefully wire this group. Odds are currently 13-1 with 9mins to post. I'll take 8-1 or better for a play.
Coming off a layoff after five straight wins and a claim from Broberg. That's the bad news.
Good news is that he's a nine time winner who can outsprint this field of mostly n2l types. Bug boy in the irons with a big weight break from everyone, and the intentions are clear...go!

The Play:
$3 ex: w
$10 win:
($19 wager)
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Old 01-21-2021, 06:06 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
FG Race 7 - 6f OClmn1x/n2l 4+
Rule 2 - horse at overlaid odds

Can't believe his price is this high, which gives a little cause for pause, but I'll take the Red Clay Magic to be a big factor throughout and hopefully wire this group. Odds are currently 13-1 with 9mins to post. I'll take 8-1 or better for a play.
Coming off a layoff after five straight wins and a claim from Broberg. That's the bad news.
Good news is that he's a nine time winner who can outsprint this field of mostly n2l types. Bug boy in the irons with a big weight break from everyone, and the intentions are clear...go!

The Play:
$3 ex: w
$10 win:
($19 wager)
Splat!
Dueled and caved in, may have finished last

TOTAL WAGERED: $71.00
TOTAL RETURNED: $80.40
PLUS $9.40
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Old 01-21-2021, 06:11 PM   #11
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I was on the also. That running line won't look great on paper and may be a betback if running against similar company.
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Old 01-23-2021, 01:58 PM   #12
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GP Race 4 Gr3 Hooper - 1m 4+
RULE 1: vulnerable favorite

I am all in against the big chalk who sits at 3-5 with 9MTP...no way!

I'll try to beat him with the at a great 13-1 right now, and the second choice who is 2-1.

The play:
$2 ex: w
$1 ex: w
$5 win:

($17 wagered)
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Old 01-23-2021, 02:12 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
GP Race 4 Gr3 Hooper - 1m 4+
RULE 1: vulnerable favorite

I am all in against the big chalk who sits at 3-5 with 9MTP...no way!

I'll try to beat him with the at a great 13-1 right now, and the second choice who is 2-1.

The play:
$2 ex: w
$1 ex: w
$5 win:

($17 wagered)
Crap damn crap!
The noses out the

OVERALL TOTALS:
$88.00 wagered
$80.40 returned
MINUS $7.60
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Old 02-03-2021, 06:25 PM   #14
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FG Race 8 - Mdn50 f 3yr olds - 1m16 turf
RULE 2: horse going off at overlaid odds

Going with the Beyond Heavenly for Louis Roussel

His price is down from 8-1ML to 9-2 right now. I won't take less than 5-1 so this may be a no go.
He's bred for turf and makes his grass debut today...looking for a wire job from Beschizza in a paceless field. My main worry is that hustling jock Riquelme may give him some trouble early on the

The play (at 5-1 or better):
$2 ex: w
$10 win:

($16 wager)

***need a winner, wish me luck
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Last edited by PhantomOnTour; 02-03-2021 at 06:29 PM.
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Old 02-04-2021, 12:51 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour View Post
FG Race 8 - Mdn50 f 3yr olds - 1m16 turf
RULE 2: horse going off at overlaid odds

Going with the Beyond Heavenly for Louis Roussel

His price is down from 8-1ML to 9-2 right now. I won't take less than 5-1 so this may be a no go.
He's bred for turf and makes his grass debut today...looking for a wire job from Beschizza in a paceless field. My main worry is that hustling jock Riquelme may give him some trouble early on the

The play (at 5-1 or better):
$2 ex: w
$10 win:

($16 wager)

***need a winner, wish me luck
She finished last, thannnnnnnk you very much. I have now picked more last place runners than winners...a feat I challenge any of you to duplicate!

Totals:
minus $23.60 overall
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