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Old 01-16-2021, 01:27 AM   #1
barahona44
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NFL Playoffs Week 2

Numbers from the Vegasinsider consensus of Nevada sports books. All four games this weekend are down (as I write this) 1/2 point from the opening line.

SATURDAY

Baltimore (+ 2 1/2) over Buffalo.

As much as I would love for Buffalo to move on to the conference championship game, I still think that Baltimore has the best chance of the six wild card teams to get to the Super Bowl.Lamar Jackson got the playoff failure monkey off his back and the Ravens seem like they're peaking at the correct time.Sorry, Bills Mafia.

Green Bay (- 6 1/2) over LA Rams

No palm trees in America's Dairyland! Jared Goff came off the bench last week and game managed LA to victory despite a recently surgically repaired thumb.Not sure Goff can handle the cold and if Aaron Rodgers gets a couple of early TD's, the Rams wil find it difficult to comeback.Ram's superstar named Aaron (Donald) left last weeks game with an injury.He needs to be 100% for the Rams to win.

Playoff record: 3-3.
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Old 01-16-2021, 09:37 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barahona44 View Post

SATURDAY

Baltimore (+ 2 1/2) over Buffalo.

As much as I would love for Buffalo to move on to the conference championship game, I still think that Baltimore has the best chance of the six wild card teams to get to the Super Bowl.Lamar Jackson got the playoff failure monkey off his back and the Ravens seem like they're peaking at the correct time.Sorry, Bills Mafia.
If info is correct, I'm seeing line move from -3 to -2.5. This is counterintuitive, as Bills are favorite, and even with what I'm seeing as -3 opener, I still expect a bit more money to coming in on the Bills than the Ravens.

So, instead I would have expected the line to hold, or to move in the other direction.

Occasionally, this counterintuitive movement would flag the game for a possible referee-influenced outcome.
I'm not too 'triggered' by the little bit of line movement today. I don't think it's significant. - The stage is in the spotlight, and the action isn't lopsided enough for a greedy rake.


Enough BS - Looks like an entertaining game.

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson seem very intense. If Josh Allen and the Bills do not put up some early points, I could see the Ravens being the aggressor and punching the Bills in the mouth.
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Old 01-16-2021, 11:33 AM   #3
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I see the weather as a factor in both games. I like the Bills , but I’m a Bills fan, so I never get financially involved with them. If you ever want a chance at winning when you gamble..... don’t bet with your heart. But I won’t be there today , I’ve been to home playoffs before. The team that travels in has to last 4 quarters. It’s like invading Russia, you get going but as time goes by the cold wears you down. When the Bills were good before..... it’s hard to win against them in those elements. Just gotta see if Allen continues the tradition, cause sometimes he can’t hold on to the ball.

Took a flyer on the Rams money line +270 and + 6 1/2. As the prior poster stated if GB jumps out early, I’m probably shot. But if this game turns into a cold, ugly , field goal kind of battle. Watch out. The Rams totaled stymied Wilson and his weapons almost the whole game. There were a couple lapses where Metcalf and Wilson made a play but other than that it was lights out. If this becomes a physical battle, my hope it is, GB often folds under that scenario. If the Rams were 100% I would be unloading on this game. Lighter play .
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Last edited by burnsy; 01-16-2021 at 11:35 AM.
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Old 01-17-2021, 02:35 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barahona44 View Post
Numbers from the Vegasinsider consensus of Nevada sports books. All four games this weekend are down (as I write this) 1/2 point from the opening line.

SATURDAY

Baltimore (+ 2 1/2) over Buffalo.

As much as I would love for Buffalo to move on to the conference championship game, I still think that Baltimore has the best chance of the six wild card teams to get to the Super Bowl.Lamar Jackson got the playoff failure monkey off his back and the Ravens seem like they're peaking at the correct time.Sorry, Bills Mafia.

Green Bay (- 6 1/2) over LA Rams

No palm trees in America's Dairyland! Jared Goff came off the bench last week and game managed LA to victory despite a recently surgically repaired thumb.Not sure Goff can handle the cold and if Aaron Rodgers gets a couple of early TD's, the Rams wil find it difficult to comeback.Ram's superstar named Aaron (Donald) left last weeks game with an injury.He needs to be 100% for the Rams to win.

Playoff record: 3-3.
Green Bay yes. Baltimore no

Playoff record 4-4
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Old 01-17-2021, 02:38 AM   #5
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SUNDAY

Kansas City (-9 1/2) over Cleveland

Last week the Browns upset the Steelers but in retrospect Cleveland showed some flaws.They had a + 5 turnover difference over Pittsburgh and only twice in NFL history has a team won with 5 or more turnovers than their opponent (I saw a graphic and the actual numbers are something like 2-176-5). And the Steelers with no running game and a dink and dunk passing game scored 31 points in the second half. KC is not going to have a plus 5 turnover differential and their offense is more potent than Pittsburgh's.Cleveland with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb can run the ball and their best chance is to keep Patrick Mahomes and Co. on the sidelines.You can't score if you don't have the ball.

New Orleans (-3) over Tampa Bay

No team has ever played the Super Bowl in their home stadium.And unfortunately that trend will continue as I think the bad luck playoff problems that have plagued the Saints will come to an end.

Playoffs 4-4
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Old 01-17-2021, 01:37 PM   #6
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Bills advanced
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Old 01-17-2021, 01:45 PM   #7
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What the Bills did yesterday is what champions are made of. That was an impressive win.
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Old 01-17-2021, 01:49 PM   #8
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I like the Saints too. The playoff snide is what worries me. But this garbage about beating a team 3 times makes me like them. They have been beating up on the Bucs for years now. They build up the QBs in these games but many of them are won running and/or defense. Green Bay broke thru yesterday running the ball down the Rams throat. Their new coach figured it out. And the defense is next level now. No more soft Packers....... tough out at home. The Bills won by allowing 3 points. Even if the two missed field goals were made....... in Buffalo weather, they get 9. New Orleans lines are tough . If they get physical, without the rest of the team choking, which NO has found a way to do. Theyll win handily.

I took Cleveland getting 10 vs the Chiefs. Hoping for the Chiefs to start slow and Cleveland to come out hot. Its got to be part of the Browns game plan. If they fall behind the Chiefs , it will be a tough road. Then Ill have to hope for the cheap scores late when Chiefs play prevent. Neither game was close yesterday. Im hoping these games are at least close games. The home faves easily covered yesterday.
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Old 01-17-2021, 03:18 PM   #9
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Browns +9
Saints -2.5
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Old 01-17-2021, 03:44 PM   #10
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I found it interesting that all the AFC teams are lead by young possibly future hall of fame quarterbacks and all the NFC teams are lead by the older, seasoned and definite hall of fame quarterbacks. No matters who goes to the superbowl it will be the kid versus the old man.
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Old 01-17-2021, 04:35 PM   #11
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mismatch

in addition to Mahomes and their wonderful offense, The Chiefs are dominating the line of scrimmage on defense.

The Browns are facing defenders in the backfield. Between Baker Mayfield and the coaching, there is also no 'slight-of-hand' ballhandling from the QB, and he's not controlling space to manipulate defenders in space either (to be fair, he's not having any time, or properly positioned backs, TEs, Slots either).

It's a 9 Point line, and that should be easy, and up to what KC decides to do, and whether to run up the score in a comfortable fashion.
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Old 01-17-2021, 06:09 PM   #12
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Mahomes out of the game, looks like a concussion.Chad Henne, who's been in the NFL 13 years now in at QB
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Old 01-17-2021, 07:11 PM   #13
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I have been waiting for YEARS for a coach to have his team on a 4th and short pretending to run a play ,hoping a hard count will draw the defense offsides.And then actually RUN a play at the last second. Kudos to Andy Reid for the Big Balls call of the decade. And with the backup QB no less.
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Old 01-17-2021, 07:29 PM   #14
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Andy unzipped his pants and pulled it out and wiggled it for the whole world to see, he's got a set of BIG ONES! GO CHIEFS!!!!
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Old 01-17-2021, 10:29 PM   #15
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Time to pass for the Saints... 4th quarter... Brees is too good for 3 or 4 downs

they keep running on 1st down


EDIT - i guess not. Ugly 'read' play between Brees and receiver, just threw to the other team
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