I've changed my strategy...stop the presses..(~:\

[Poindexter]

Just to add one more point. Assuming you are amply rebated and wanted to take this on, I think you have to get really versed in deciphering whether the horse is overbet because of "smart money" which you obviously do not want to take on and "public money" which you obviously should have no issues taking on.

[Onesome]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Good stuff.


-Tote Action: Yes, I consider the tote for horses that are somewhat of a wildcard, with some unknowns. In this case, (Tampa r8 pps=spendthrift, Cross Traffic sire)there was no standout in my opinion, and the favorite was in a low% barn. The was in the barn of a trainer that I follow. He had weird form running at PRM and WRD, and just 1 race at Gulfstream for $25k. Today's race was Tampa OC16Nx1?... I knew he was a wildcard, but the tote opened up at 12-1 or so with the smaller bettors, and dropped to his morning line of 6-1 at off... Pace was fast, and he was able to establish a stalking position, inherit the lead, take first run, and grind home. $15.40 $7.60 $4.80

literally had the PPs scrolled and fixed on the horse, but I had doubts


I agree w/ being 'Process Oriented' and unaffected by Results.

Greed etc... gets me a bit, and also want to be sure that a trial-and-error process is running

First flash I see is 20 MTP and he was 19-1, he was 11-1 at 10 MTP so maybe thats when you saw him. Problem is there was only 5K in the win pool at 20 MTP, 8K at 10 MTP. Final win pool was 95K.

Thats the problem with American racing in trying to use price action as an indicator when so much comes in at the final moments since there is no incentive to show your cards early via fixed odds bookies/exchanges like there is in the rest of the world.

I don't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere inthe world, Sir Dragonet went from 10-1 to 6.5-1 with the bookies in the minutes leading up to his Cox Plate win, but by US tote standards thats not a crazy move and it's so rare it made headlines.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Onesome

First flash I see is 20 MTP and he was 19-1, he was 11-1 at 10 MTP so maybe thats when you saw him. Problem is there was only 5K in the win pool at 20 MTP, 8K at 10 MTP. Final win pool was 95K.

Thats the problem with American racing in trying to use price action as an indicator when so much comes in at the final moments since there is no incentive to show your cards early via fixed odds bookies/exchanges like there is in the rest of the world.

I don't mean it doesn't happen elsewhere inthe world, Sir Dragonet went from 10-1 to 6.5-1 with the bookies in the minutes leading up to his Cox Plate win, but by US tote standards thats not a crazy move and it's so rare it made headlines.

thank you. Yea, in the US, the early money is often light, and casual-driven.

Will-Pays from Doubles and other multi-race pools are generally more accurate than early Win pool money.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I make a wager for one of the following three reasons only:

1) there is a vulnerable favorite and i have a viable horse(s) that can win
2) there's a horse i really like at overlaid odds
3) there's a viable longshot (in the neighborhood of 12-1 or higher) that I'm confident can finish in the top three

Betting under any other circumstances is just wishiful thinking in my opinion

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this )

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the , but will also consider the .
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this )

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the , but will also consider the .
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

Not the ideal setup for your thesis...IMO. This might be the worst sort of race to spread out in.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.

I look at that same record, and I'm able to make a case that it's one failure - in the first start. That's the only short turf sprint the horse has run. The KD race was 6 1/2 with a 350 ft runup - that makes it 7 furlongs.

The rest are dirt races.

I'm not saying I'm running to the windows - but I have a much harder time making this one an easy toss as the chalk.

This is why I love the puzzle and seeing others' analysis - so many ways to look at it!!!! I probably won't be playing this one, so I hope you're right!

[PhantomOnTour]

Rule 2: there's a horse i like at overlaid odds

Race 7 at GP today - MSW 7.5f TURF f3yrs old - post 3:40pm ET

I really like the for Bill Mott on an angle i often use with him:
runner showed speed in a dirt sprint debut and faded, now goes longer on turf in 2nd lifetime start

I've found these types are often a big threat to wire the field, sometimes at nice odds. The ML on this gal is 10-1 but i expect the price to drop before post.
She looks as if she can make the lead fairly easily and the 5f turf stamina work at Payson gives me confidence.
Usual jock Junior is up and he's gonna go to the front.
Main threats are the for Brown and the for Pletcher.

I'll take as low as 6-1 on her. My play:
EX: 1-4 w 6
TRI: 6 w 1-4 w 1-2-4-5
WIN: 6

good luck if you're playing, and who ya got???

(race can be found on WoBet site, Todd Pletcher tab)

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Rule 2: there's a horse i like at overlaid odds

Race 7 at GP today - MSW 7.5f TURF f3yrs old - post 3:40pm ET

I really like the for Bill Mott on an angle i often use with him:
runner showed speed in a dirt sprint debut and faded, now goes longer on turf in 2nd lifetime start

I've found these types are often a big threat to wire the field, sometimes at nice odds. The ML on this gal is 10-1 but i expect the price to drop before post.
She looks as if she can make the lead fairly easily and the 5f turf stamina work at Payson gives me confidence.
Usual jock Junior is up and he's gonna go to the front.
Main threats are the for Brown and the for Pletcher.

I'll take as low as 6-1 on her. My play:
EX: 1-4 w 6
TRI: 6 w 1-4 w 1-2-4-5
WIN: 6

good luck if you're playing, and who ya got???

(race can be found on WoBet site, Todd Pletcher tab)

She's at 9-2 with 2mtp so this is likely going to be a pass

[PhantomOnTour]

The won a desperate photo at 4-1 over the longshot
No play for me as my min odds were 6-1...boy did she run ugly though

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

1) Overbet odds on favorites (as a group) are probably the most accurately prices horses in racing. Odds on favorites are already very accurately priced

the image is from Barry Meadow's latest book -
data from over 800,000 races

as you can see the dramatic gain in R.O.I. for odds on faves only occurs in the place and show pools

until it gets to horses priced above 3/1 the gain is only 1%
overall they beat the general takeout only by about 2%

and excuse me for stating the obvious, but..........

there is a dramatic difference in the price you will get on other entries if you're betting against a 3/5 fave compared to betting against a 9/5 fave









*

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

the image is from Barry Meadow's latest book -
data from over 800,000 races

as you can see the dramatic gain in R.O.I. for odds on faves only occurs in the place and show pools

until it gets to horses priced above 3/1 the gain is only 1%
overall they beat the general takeout only by about 2%

and excuse me for stating the obvious, but..........

there is a dramatic difference in the price you will get on other entries if you're betting against a 3/5 fave compared to betting against a 9/5 fave









*

I get your point that if odds on favorites are only 1% better roi than other favorites you see that as an opportunity. Doesn't change the fact that they are the most accurately priced horses in racing. Everything I posted I stand behind. The example I gave of a 4-1, 6-1, 10-1, and 12-1 is a very realistic guesstimate of the typical 4 horses you will be betting against a 3/5 shot (so I am not exactly sure what stating the obvious has to do with my post). After you dutch your 4 horses you are down to an even money shot. Thus everything I posted stands. The math changes a bit with a 3 horse dutch, as you might typically be playing a 4-1, 6-1, 8-1 against a 3/5 shot and thus you are now up to around 6/5 on your dutch, but you obviously lose some hit % with one less horse. You asked for comments I gave them.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this )

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the , but will also consider the .
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

If I'm not mistaken this race is on the dirt and the #4 is scratched.
I'll be posting selections based on the tote board activities for some of the FG races today in the Selection forum.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Nitro

If I'm not mistaken this race is on the dirt and the #4 is scratched.
I'll be posting selections based on the tote board activities for some of the FG races today in the Selection forum.

You're not mistaken and neither was he. Race was scheduled for turf, and FG is off turf today.

And now I would no longer dissent from his expressed desire to toss the 10, based on multiple main track losing efforts.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Time for me to put my money where my mouth is and put Rule 1 from above to the test (something tells me I'm going to regret this )

Looking at R8 from FG on Thurs Jan 14 - MSW 5.5f on turf for 3yr olds:

The is the ML choice at 5-2 and will likely go off as the chalk for powerhouse trainer and jock (Amoss & Geroux). This colt looks like a big underlay and one who is very reluctant to win. He's had many chances and just doesn't seem to want it. Been right there in the stretch and can't get the job done. Lasix and blinkers in his last two haven't done the trick.
I will try to beat him with primarily the , but will also consider the .
More on this race tomorrow.
The pp's can be found at the Who Bet page under the Winstar tab (choose Exaggerator)

With the surface change and scratches I’m gonna pass this one, although the #8 is offering great value in my opinion at 16-1

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

The example I gave of a 4-1, 6-1, 10-1, and 12-1 is a very realistic guesstimate of the typical 4 horses you will be betting against a 3/5 shot u asked for comments I gave them.

yes, that is realistic and thanks for the comments

the prices you get betting against the 3/5 fave also depends on the prices of the shots at the far end

if 4 un-included shots in a 9 horse field are priced at 25, 25, 30, and 35/1 you get a much worse payout than if they're priced at 18, 18, 20 and 22/1

it's also greatly dependent on the field size
much different payouts in a 6 horse field than in a 12 horse field

I recently got a payout of 17/1 on the 4th horse in the dutch for an overall profit of more than 2/1

but yes, that is unusual - it's fairly often close to what you indicated




*