Del Mar BC Results

[linrom1]

It looks like Narcissists are all in force -winning all losing has nothing to do with the terrible racing conditions at Del Mar: both on dirt and turf.

The dirt surface had a dead rail and given large fields in those races, horses on rail were stuck while there was a conveyor belt on the outside. If the BC was held at Santa Anita, Belmont, CD, Kee or GP none of the BC winners other than GR and Roy H would be even close to the finish line.

If you are curious what experts are saying about Del Mar racing conditions just listen to Miller who won 2 BC races or Jay Privman from DRF on Steve Byk show. Mick Ruis, the owner of Bolt d'Oro notes that before the 10th race on 11/4, he noticed that dirt was being moved from the inside to the outside, further putting his horse at a disadvantage -why so late?

The turf course configuration makes Del Mar unsuitable to hold BC turf events. I defer to one of the world's best turf riders who summed up riding conditions as not wanting to be inside lanes 1-6. In races made up of 14 starters, if a horse has no early speed to get up to the front, the race becomes a joke. Just take a look at Happily's trip.

At least this travesty of BC has ended, and hopefully we won't be subject to this farcical spectacle at Del Mar in the future.

[Mc990]

Using the thorograph weight adjusted tops, here are the rankings going in for each dirt winner within their respective race.... 3,3,2,1,4,3,1 (gun runner and bar of gold being the 2 who had the fastest top).... Hardly shocking results.

On the turf, World Approval, Rushing Fall and Mendelssohn all had the fastest top going in. Talismanic and Stormy Liberal saved ground and certainly figured on their best effort.

[bisket]

There just isn't a solid amount of predictability when horses come together from all over the country and world. It's a different ball game then handicapping runners that race each other frequently. Especially when the track plays fair. When there's a bias that's when you get some predictability. When you don't have a bias to eliminate half the field the variables are numerous. You have to trust your handicapping and not look at odds until racetime. Tune others out, and after you form an opinion talk about it. Gulfstream in January offers this kind of wagering because you get the best barns from Kentucky, New York, and the Mid Atlantic. I love to wager on those fields in January. Usually by the middle of February the speed handicappers catch up to me.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Using the thorograph weight adjusted tops, here are the rankings going in for each dirt winner within their respective race.... 3,3,2,1,4,3,1 (gun runner and bar of gold being the 2 who had the fastest top).... Hardly shocking results.....

Bar of Gold's 10/22/16 speed fig, earned on wet track, was fastest horse coming in per every reporting service that I've seen. TFUS, HDW, TG, Ragozin and others. Key was to bet her on 10th race of cycle, coinciding with East>>>West ship. That part was easy. Gun Runner was hard to have.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by bisket

There just isn't a solid amount of predictability when horses come together from all over the country and world. It's a different ball game then handicapping runners that race each other frequently. Especially when the track plays fair. When there's a bias that's when you get some predictability. When you don't have a bias to eliminate half the field the variables are numerous. You have to trust your handicapping and not look at odds until racetime. Tune others out, and after you form an opinion talk about it. Gulfstream in January offers this kind of wagering because you get the best barns from Kentucky, New York, and the Mid Atlantic. I love to wager on those fields in January. Usually by the middle of February the speed handicappers catch up to me.

Competitive racing shouldn't translate to less predictability. I see competitive racing all the time and can cut through it. The event itself doesn't blow me away from a predictability standpoint. Who wins vs who you want to bet on many of these races was a stark contrast. I already admitted a good bet line but not bottom line. Some had lifetime days and I love seeing my pals tear it up! But I think there were biases at stake that did mess the races up. That happened so not sure what you were talking about. I won a few bucks but am angry I didn't annihilate this weekend! Sour grapes? Sure. The event is easily within my wheel house. I think the track itself was not. I will be glad to not see it here again.

[bisket]

You're not going to hit a high percentage in races like this. You're going to take your lumps and hit a big one. There is a bias to Del Mar. The track is more circular in shape , and it has a short stretch. Some horses are more athletic than others and can pass horses on the turn. That's the horse that has an edge. You can look at the split that involves the final turn in the pp's, but that can be misleading. The best way to do it is look at replays. Look for horse that cut the corner, or just accelerate past runners on the turn. It works at Monmouth too. Similar track.

[dansan]

Same complaints every year

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by dansan

Same complaints every year

Not quite, as I said on another thread, 5 year old kids cashing $60 and $135 winners happens occasionally at BC, but not often. I think it was related to this track, settings, and surface personally.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by linrom1

It looks like Narcissists are all in force -winning all losing has nothing to do with the terrible racing conditions at Del Mar: both on dirt and turf.

The dirt surface had a dead rail and given large fields in those races, horses on rail were stuck while there was a conveyor belt on the outside. If the BC was held at Santa Anita, Belmont, CD, Kee or GP none of the BC winners other than GR and Roy H would be even close to the finish line.

If you are curious what experts are saying about Del Mar racing conditions just listen to Miller who won 2 BC races or Jay Privman from DRF on Steve Byk show. Mick Ruis, the owner of Bolt d'Oro notes that before the 10th race on 11/4, he noticed that dirt was being moved from the inside to the outside, further putting his horse at a disadvantage -why so late?

The turf course configuration makes Del Mar unsuitable to hold BC turf events. I defer to one of the world's best turf riders who summed up riding conditions as not wanting to be inside lanes 1-6. In races made up of 14 starters, if a horse has no early speed to get up to the front, the race becomes a joke. Just take a look at Happily's trip.

At least this travesty of BC has ended, and hopefully we won't be subject to this farcical spectacle at Del Mar in the future.

Distilling your post, was the idea that if you were a closer (Sadler's Joy for example, who actually finished 4th) the rail ground save the whole way actually worked against you if you could even get open late to make a final run? Just wondering.

[cj]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Not quite, as I said on another thread, 5 year old kids cashing $60 and $135 winners happens occasionally at BC, but not often. I think it was related to this track, settings, and surface personally.

Really? I haven't tracked it recently, but for a long time just betting every horse at the BC that was 20-1 or over was a winning strategy. Big prices at the BC are nothing new.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by cj

Really? I haven't tracked it recently, but for a long time just betting every horse at the BC that was 20-1 or over was a winning strategy. Big prices at the BC are nothing new.

Here's some recent data:

Saturday 2016: Two 8-1, 16-1, and Champagne Room Juvenile Fillies 33-1.
11-1 was the highest Friday 2016 price.

2015: Saturday 15-1 and 10-1 highest prices, Friday everyone was 6 through 8-1, with one 1/2 winner.

2014: Karakontie 30-1 in the mile, Work all Week 18-1 in the Sprint ... Friday's highest price was 6-1.

2013: Friday highest price 9-1; Saturday highest price Magician in the Turf, 13-1 ... Ria Antonia Juvenile Fillies 32-1.


Looks to me like Juvenile Fillies is the spot. Wasn't Spain in that one in 2000? Caledonia Road 13-1 this year. The filly and mare Spring and the Turf Sprint produced Bar of Gold and Stormy liberal at 60 and 30 this year, seems the sprint's really exaggerated the rail problems.

[LemonSoupKid]

^ Haha, Spain was the Distaff.

[Mc990]

I'd be careful making judgements from extremely small sample sizes...

As I brought up earlier, a big reason why you saw such relatively high prices is because some BAD favorites were way overbet...

Would the complainers feel better about the results if horses like Elate, mor spirit, moonshine memories, lady Aurelia, unique Bella, drefong, arrogate, bolt d'oro and highland reel took 1/3 of the money that they did? Would the actual winners have looked more likely then?

[Robert Fischer]

Perhaps the Dirt course slightly favored the outside. However, the nature of world-class pace(Hot) is that closers will tend to flow up on the outside. If there was an outside aided bias, it was very mild. We also saw Gun Runner rebuff the outside flow. He happened to out-class his rival (Collected), and we have no idea about pre-Classic track maintenance, but his victory raised more questions about any supposed outside bias.

I don't see a case for 'tossing' the dirt results.


On the other hand, the Turf course is physically a bit small and tight for full fields of world class turf horses.
There is definitely a good argument for going through the replays and looking for horses with traffic issues in BC Turf course races.

[Tom]

You could see from some of the overhead shots that some horses had virtually no shot ever getting clear.