The Belmont Stakes Card

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There are probably too many graded stakes to begin with, but there are also too many top horses in the hands of too few trainers. The latter gives trainers an incentive to at least try to keep their top horses apart. The number of graded stakes gives them more of an opportunity to do so. It may be difficult to get the number of graded stakes reduced, but it's at least theoretically doable. I'm not so sure how you can control 4-5 trainers having most of the good horses.

Probably? It is a big problem.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/cannonshell/stat...64476090335233

Lasix
Breed for Speed
Crop Size
Spacing
Other stuff I omit as brain fart

These are all valid individual concerns, in their place.


let's look at two races


RACE 11. Belmont Stakes - OK, it's not inconceivable.
Maybe some of these factors are significant in keeping it '8' rather than '12' in this instance. Perhaps not, but plausible concerns here. Slight disappointing that no Global presence...
Also no local turf horses, no uncoupled pace 'rabbits'
10-12 horses was not inconceivable
but really, why quibble?, when we at least got the Kentucky Derby winner in the field. That alone allows '8' to be a fine betting race.

RACE 6 Woody Stephens - I would need to prevaricate a canard to defend the hustling towards a full competitive betting race here.
I won't go as far as to say the race was intentionally showing appreciation to the connections of Jack Christopher, nevertheless it arrived at that point.
Jack Christopher ran a legitimately strong Pat Day Mile bumped at the start, and having to move up to track also-ran Pappacap who did in fact show some resistance. In no way am I calling Jack Christopher a fraud. I am not saying that he needs a race where he's either loose or tracking stablemate Prat.
Irad and Wit will be closing hard if Jack somehow disappoints in the showcase.
Morello on the other hand is a great, independent rival in this race. Unfortunately he needs a contentious pace, or about 2 more furlongs.
It's a showcase of a wonderful 3yo sprinter, with some nice runners in the field, - just don't confuse 'Lasix' or Breeding or crop size etc... as significant factors here

[Tom]

Originally Posted by cj

Probably? It is a big problem.

Amen. We used to call the stakes race the FEATURE, now we call it the 3rd race.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Tom

Parx is running Saturday.......

Parx is generally the best track out there these days for full fields at all levels. Yesterday (Tuesday) they ran 10 races. Three races had 6 horses, the rest had 8 or more.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Tom

Amen. We used to call the stakes race the FEATURE, now we call it the 3rd race.

foal crop sizes are 1/2 and graded stakes are nearly the same...breeders are happy though.

[Robert Fischer]

Handicapping advice
"People say, that in multi race wagers, that you need a 'single'...
that's simply not true.
you may need two or three singles"


In all seriousness, , there are some full-field offerings if you dig into specific races and some of the 2-day wagering menu. Star-studded as well.

Every time you get to see these amazing horses run it's an honor and a blessing.

I sat in the sun this morning, played catch with Mr. Mooch dog, ... Life is short, enjoy the moments. Be positive.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Parx is generally the best track out there these days for full fields at all levels. Yesterday (Tuesday) they ran 10 races. Three races had 6 horses, the rest had 8 or more.

I play Parx a lot. Love that they are running during the week year round.
When they run Saturdays, that is my main track.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by Tom

I play Parx a lot. Love that they are running during the week year round.
When they run Saturdays, that is my main track.

And they run on M-T-W, days that can be pretty weak in terms of playable races. Especially in late fall to early spring.

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

foal crop sizes are 1/2 and graded stakes are nearly the same...breeders are happy though.

ding, ding, ding--we have a winner.

[lamboguy]

instead of JACKIES WARRIOR running against FLIGHT LINE and have a good race, JACKIES WARRIOR will be 1-5 Friday and FLIGHT LINE 1-5 Saturday. this way the owners and trainers are almost guaranteed they walk out with a good hunk of change.

the same thing happens all the time, they ship the horse to go off at 1-5 all the time to duck horses.

this is what happens today when you allow owners and trainers to monopolize the game. it almost guarantees there will be less breeding of horses and less of a handle going forward and less race tracks that everyone here seems to want!

[westernmassbob]

Poor job of NYRA to not fill these cards better. They are leaving millions of dollars of PM takeout on the table. Keep in mind this is also a day a casual bettor comes out that normally only plays on the big race days. Guaranteed extra money for NYRA that they apparently don’t care about. It must be nice.

[cj]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

Poor job of NYRA to not fill these cards better. They are leaving millions of dollars of PM takeout on the table. Keep in mind this is also a day a casual bettor comes out that normally only plays on the big race days. Guaranteed extra money for NYRA that they apparently don’t care about. It must be nice.

I have no doubt NYRA did everything possible to get the most horses they could to run. You can't force a horse to run. The problems run way deeper than just the Belmont card.

[westernmassbob]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

instead of JACKIES WARRIOR running against FLIGHT LINE and have a good race, JACKIES WARRIOR will be 1-5 Friday and FLIGHT LINE 1-5 Saturday. this way the owners and trainers are almost guaranteed they walk out with a good hunk of change.

the same thing happens all the time, they ship the horse to go off at 1-5 all the time to duck horses.

this is what happens today when you allow owners and trainers to monopolize the game. it almost guarantees there will be less breeding of horses and less of a handle going forward and less race tracks that everyone here seems to want!

If NY wasn’t paying NYRA the subsidies you would definitely be seeing much larger fields. It has zero to do with horse shortages but everything to do with politics.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

Poor job of NYRA to not fill these cards better. They are leaving millions of dollars of PM takeout on the table. Keep in mind this is also a day a casual bettor comes out that normally only plays on the big race days. Guaranteed extra money for NYRA that they apparently don’t care about. It must be nice.

I'm guessing that every track in the country that has simulcast racing will be getting a big surge in casual bettors on Saturday. I'd also guess that a large number of those casual bettors will be using a local tip sheet and will not be concerned as to whether a race has 6 horses or 10. They will just be looking for action.