Derby longshot ?

[PhantomOnTour]

After the 80-1 winner last year I suspect we will see a ton of underlaid runners. The year after Mine That Bird won, the longest shot in the field was just under 32-1.
So who's the 30-1 ish bomb who can light up the exotics (or win it all)?

I'm having a long look at Blazing Sevens for Chad Brown.
Gr1 winner last year (Champagne) and then ran pretty well in the Breeders Cup Juvenile behind Forte.
Got bounced around a bit out of the gate in the Ftn Of Youth in his 3yr old debut and basically just trotted around the track to finish a badly beaten 8th.
A total non effort.
Brown then puts blinkers on him and comes right back in the Blue Grass, where he went about 3w on the first turn & then made a nice wide move on the far turn into a slow pace, but couldn't go with the top two, finishing a good 3rd. He kept going after the wire to draw on even terms with the 1-2 finishers.
A real improvement over his FOY race and a return to his 2yr old best figure. He may be all set for a top effort in the Derby, 3rd off the layoff.
His gate problems are a big concern (esp in the Derby) but maybe he gets a slice at a price if things break well for him.

Also looking at Skinner if he draws in. Always seems to run wide but this son of Curlin has a solid late kick that is sure to pick up many distance challenged runners at 1m1/4.

[boys at tosconova]

finding and guessing correctly which page 2 long shot might hit the board is hard feat. it's almost never the horse you think it's going to be when it does hit/

his bg was a decent bounce back effort. but I really didn't like his finishing energy 5L in back of vrfyng and tt. I guess there's the possibility he can improve off of it. you get brown at long odds and he did race well at 2.

being 30/50-1 means you're gonna have knocks

[boys at tosconova]

I think some people really would like to see skinner and mandarin hero in the race.

myself, I kind of like romans horse should he get in as a page 2 bomb. his 3rd place finish was pretty decent in the fd.

[f2tornado]

Hit Show is probably going to be overlooked and sitting at 25-1. Really nothing negative to say about it aside from being just a little behind the top contenders on figures.

[Curln22]

Blazings seven’s definitely seems more of a one turn type.

In all his two turn races no better than 4th.

[sovereign]

Whichever horse you don't like will probably be the one to ruin your exotics.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by Curln22

Blazings seven’s definitely seems more of a one turn type.

In all his two turn races no better than 4th.

I see where you're coming from.
10f probably isn't what he wants. Just thought he was on the rebound and could be primed for a big effort.
Will likely be overbet coming from the Brown barn.

[myohmyjustify]

My longshot pick is Confidence Game.

Don't understand the horse missing the major preps since his win in the Rebel but I take his trainer's word that he'll be ready on Derby Day.

It's too long between starts for my liking and the horse does need a lot of things to fall into place but then again, that's why he's a longshot pick.

Good luck to everyone ...

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Thinking Two Phil's and Skinner if he gets in, are the two 'wise guy' horses in this field.

For serious longshots I may be looking at Reincarnate and the other Japanese horse in Continuar.

At least with Reincarnate one should expect him to be forwardly placed. Yes, distance is a serious question, but it also is for everybody in this field. At 40/1 or better, I may lay a few nickels on him


Continuar was a solid 2YO that hasn't had quite the campaign at 3. Derma will get all the hype for the Japanese invaders and one could get 60/1 or better on this one. Maybe a flyer WPS wager on a horse that has definitely flashed talent.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Hit Show is probably going to be overlooked and sitting at 25-1. Really nothing negative to say about it aside from being just a little behind the top contenders on figures.

Don't mind this one either, and think you are right on his price floating up. There are a number of horses fighting for 10/1 or under favoritism and a fairly solid middle of 12 to 20/1 horses. He could float up over 30/1 and hasn't done a whole lot wrong.

Wood wasn't all that good, but wasn't cranked for that one either. Definitely has some upside.

[Raider]

I am looking at Raise Cain and Rocket Can, Though I doubt that any one over 15-1 will be in the top four

[PhantomOnTour]

I'd like to thank Chad Brown for withdrawing Blazing Sevens and saving me from making a foolish bet.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm just starting to get warmed up and study the field and the card.

My gut says double check all the Brad Cox horses and respect the top trainers in general.

I feel like the 'long shots' will have some chance 3rd/4th, but some non-favorites are in contention. I don't want to commit to that opinion and be biased. Hopefully some inspiration as I feel some fear and greed here.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I'd like to thank Chad Brown for withdrawing Blazing Sevens and saving me from making a foolish bet.

Same here. Trainers never scratch winners, do they?

[Aerocraft67]

From a preliminary look at some basic factors, using Aragona's DRF value line to identify runners 20-1 or more:

• Confidence Game seems the best of the longshots—probably takes more money than 30-1 accordingly
• Hit Show, Lord Miles weak on speed and pace but fairly classy, could improve in sixth race and may appreciate the distance. Hit Show less compelling at 20-1 vs. 50-1 for Lord Miles.
• Reincarnate, Two Phil's a bit more exposed and less classy races, but good pace profiles. Phil has that big speed fig (which may get bet), Reincarnate looks to be the bigger price—and should be
• Mage surely takes more money than 20-1? It'll probably get more of mine.

Nonshots:

• Wild on Ice just doesn't figure. Hard toss.
• Rocket Can has some class and a little pace but pretty weak otherwise
• Sun Thunder looks to have biggest late run, nothing else, will burn money
• Raise Cain and Disarm, meh
• Continuar? Who knows.