Flightline

[Tom]

Anyone know what he got from Thorograph?
I forgot to look in time.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

Anyone know what he got from Thorograph?
I forgot to look in time.

- 8 1/2

Fastest figure they've ever given out

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

- 8 1/2

Fastest figure they've ever given out

Jerry also said it could have been a lot faster, he has every horse but one (other than Flightline) in two route races regressing.

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by cj

Jerry also said it could have been a lot faster, he has every horse but one (other than Flightline) in two route races regressing.

The other would have to be Country Grammer?
Without Flightline he would look formidable and maybe co-favorite in the BC imo.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

The other would have to be Country Grammer?
Without Flightline he would look formidable and maybe co-favorite in the BC imo.

I would assume so. I talked about him on the Podcast as part of the figure making process. If you remove Flightline from the race, he wins easy, gets a big fig, and nobody bats an eye. I think Brown and Beyer have been a bit conservative, which is totally understandable.

[PhantomOnTour]

I bet Country Grammer thinks he won the race

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Jerry also said it could have been a lot faster, he has every horse but one (other than Flightline) in two route races regressing.

I also think some understandable conservatism crept into the process.

Setting aside figures for moment, when was the last time you saw a horse demolish another of Country Grammar's quality by 19+ lengths and that horse be well clear of the rest of the field suggesting he ran his race?

I think your figure comes closest to capturing my feelings about the race.

I think the horses behind him probably ran figures a little below their best because they were used earlier/harder than usual trying to stay with him.

Coming out of the race I expect Flightline will decline a bit because as good as he is, I think the track probably helped carry him to that insane figure a bit. Some of the chasers will probably run a bit faster next time as long as they aren't chasing this terror again. Exciting horse! I hope we get to see more.

[Tom]

I want figures to express a horse's performance, no some opinion about it.
That's my job.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I also think some understandable conservatism crept into the process.

Setting aside figures for moment, when was the last time you saw a horse demolish another of Country Grammar's quality by 19+ lengths and that horse be well clear of the rest of the field suggesting he ran his race?

I think your figure comes closest to capturing my feelings about the race.

I think the horses behind him probably ran figures a little below their best because they were used earlier/harder than usual trying to stay with him.

Coming out of the race I expect Flightline will decline a bit because as good as he is, I think the track probably helped carry him to that insane figure a bit. Some of the chasers will probably run a bit faster next time as long as they aren't chasing this terror again. Exciting horse! I hope we get to see more.

I beg to differ. I believe he will peak in the Classic, second two turn race. The possibilities are endless.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by jocko699

I beg to differ. I believe he will peak in the Classic, second two turn race. The possibilities are endless.

I'm talking about figures only, not how good he is.

I think his speed figure (whichever you happen to believe is most accurate lol) in the PC may have been surface aided a bit. So he could run better next time but still earn a slower figure on a more honest racetrack.

If he runs a faster figure, hire someone to start building the statue now before prices for raw materials go up any further.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Tom

I want figures to express a horse's performance, no some opinion about it.
That's my job.

One thing I would say about situations like this- which will be an apostasy to figure makers- is the numbers are truly unimportant. The reason speed figures are useful is to compare performances of different horses running against each other. That's what they were designed for. They were never designed for determining who the all time "best horses" were and are a terrible metric for determining that, really.

Any idiot can look at what Flightline did, and look at the field he crushed and how much he crushed them by, and figure out this was an enormous performance. It literally doesn't matter what the figure makers say. You don't need (and probably shouldn't want) a speed figure to measure a performance like this. It's like watching Tiger Woods crush the field in the 1997 Masters and saying "what I really want to know is the average yardage on his drives".

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Setting aside figures for moment, when was the last time you saw a horse demolish another of Country Grammar's quality by 19+ lengths and that horse be well clear of the rest of the field suggesting he ran his race?

What's so great about Country Grammer compared to the rest of CA's hapless older horses?

He was a minor 3yo at best who was thoroughly thrashed in the Travers. He was no better than on even terms with Royal Ship as a 4yo. I guess you can point to him reversing form on Royal Ship in a irrelevant battle for 2nd in the Pacific Classic (though Smith appeared to wrap up well before the 1/16th pole) after getting his head handed to him in the San Diego, but the reality is he just stays better than Royal Ship, who came over from Brazil with the record of a turf sprinter/miler.

His middle east races were laughable affairs. An international array of bridesmaids got together to see who would get stuck in the winner's circle.

There was a good chance that Warrant would have been a clear second in the Pacific Classic last Saturday.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

One thing I would say about situations like this- which will be an apostasy to figure makers- is the numbers are truly unimportant. The reason speed figures are useful is to compare performances of different horses running against each other. That's what they were designed for. They were never designed for determining who the all time "best horses" were and are a terrible metric for determining that, really.

Any idiot can look at what Flightline did, and look at the field he crushed and how much he crushed them by, and figure out this was an enormous performance. It literally doesn't matter what the figure makers say. You don't need (and probably shouldn't want) a speed figure to measure a performance like this. It's like watching Tiger Woods crush the field in the 1997 Masters and saying "what I really want to know is the average yardage on his drives".

This is woefully misguided. Relative performances always matter, as sometimes you want to evaluate performances when handicapping a race, but sometimes you want to do it between talented horses from different time periods. Obviously, that is why this figure is important and being dissected. It may not matter to you, which is fine, but it certainly does to many others.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by the little guy

This is woefully misguided. Relative performances always matter, as sometimes you want to evaluate performances when handicapping a race, but sometimes you want to do it between talented horses from different time periods. Obviously, that is why this figure is important and being dissected. It may not matter to you, which is fine, but it certainly does to many others.

I realize it does to many others. Many others also care profusely about how far Tiger Woods hit his drives in the 1997 masters, or what some batter's WAR is in a baseball game.

But the points I made are correct:

1. Speed figures were not made for this. Indeed, there is no statistical validity to any of the numbers being bandied about in this thread, because there are simply not enough performances of Flightline's caliber to create a proper baseline. It is all unscientific.

2. Speed figures are important because they allow comparison of performances in handicapping. But whether Flightline ran a 126 or a 136 is literally unimportant to anyone's handicapping. A handicapper is either going to come up with some reason why he's going to get beat or concede the race to him. In neither case will it matter what the figure was.

You are simply incorrect.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

But the points I made are correct:

Some truths are universal I guess.