Great Handicapping poor betting

[46zilzal]

Simulcast racing and good records allows you today to be very picky where to put your wagering dollars.

You should have almost complete (short of late scratches or weather changes) evaluations of the races that look good WHEN YOU WALK THROUGH THE DOOR and spend the majority of your time choosing which contests represent good wagers...the HANDICAPPING decisions should be LONG gone by then.

[Light]

I've done (and we all have) done what the op did and worse.

20 years ago I took my 2 kids and a niece to the Ca. Fair in Sac and thought I'd give them an intro to Horse racing for one race. It was a 12 horse field going 2 turns, cheap claimers. My favorite kind of race. I asked each who they liked. I was the only one picking a horse in single digits. I was going to make a $2 win bet for each of them but when they picked super bombs and I looked at their form, I thought "no way". I skipped their bets, only betting my horse. My horse ran 4th. Their picks ran 1-2-3. I think the $1 Tri was $10K. The Super was psychotic. I thought "we had the Super cold" but I had no faith.

I said, "com on kid's that's the end of your lesson" (or "my lesson" as I said to myself as we left).

I eventually recuperated and shrugged it off because I realized I was in a magical moment and I was not aware of it. I cut myself some slack for lack of perception.

The point is if what you missed was a one hit wonder like mine, then "forget about it". You can't control it. But if you can do it again, then "forget about it" also because you can do it again and again.

[cj]

I would agree most people don't spend enough time on bet construction as they should, myself included. That said, more often than not I think the "good handicapper, poor bettor" mantra is another tool to fool ourselves into thinking we're actually handicapping well when we aren't.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by cj

I would agree most people don't spend enough time on bet construction as they should, myself included. That said, more often than not I think the "good handicapper, poor bettor" mantra is another tool to fool ourselves into thinking we're actually handicapping well when we aren't.

If each and every one of us is NOT WILLING to know the truth of our efforts with voluminous ACCURATE and non-biased results compared to our efforts, then those players will remain clueless as to how well their attempts have been.

I run into this all time: "What do your records show when you back this track or this distance over time?" Response: "WHAT?" I know for a fact to stay away from the turf..HOW by 10 years of records that say my efforts on that surface have shown me, REPEATEDLY, to stay away from it.

Imagine never knowing what your investments in other parts of your life would be like if you never monitored them? Real Estate, bank accounts, annuities etc.?

[cutchemist42]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

These are not examples of "poor betting". These are examples of people who have predetermined what bets they like making...and then complain when an entirely different sort of wager would have won them more money on the race. Horizontal bettors who complain about not making vertical wagers...and exacta bettors who regret not making trifectas. Other players bet two horses to win in the race...and then complain when their horses finish one-two, and they "didn't bet the exacta". As I said...this isn't "poor betting". This is just the price that we all have to pay when we restrict ourselves to particular betting patterns. IMO..."poor betting" is when we misconstruct the wagers that we intended to make from the START. It isn't the losing that makes a bad bet a bad bet. A bad bet is wrong...even if it wins.

What a great post.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by Parson

So yesterday Gulfstream 2nd and 3rd I play a DD ticket like this:

1,2,4/6 and cash the DD for 22.80,

but if I box an exacta in the 2nd I hit for 173..70
then again in the 5th and 6th, I play a DD ticket like this:

1,2,3/4 cash the DD for 46.70, but once again miss the exacta in the 5th because I do not play it and it pays 213.60

those are $1 payouts and would have had multiple times if I had just bet.

This happens all the time, we've all gone through it. I play a lot of Doubles and my tip to you (this is how I do it), let's say that I'm playing 123 with 12 in doubles with more money on the 12 with 1 doubles. If the horses I'm using in doubles are likely to produce a good exacta payoff, like the ones you mentioned, I'll play the exacta. If I'm using the lowest odds horses, I'll skip the exacta. If you miss an exacta that pays $20 you're not going to care, but if you miss one that pays $200, you're going to be ticked off. So, bet the ones that are paying well and skip the short prices.

[lawmaker1]

We need someone like Pandy to write a book on betting with more tips like this!

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by pandy

This happens all the time, we've all gone through it. I play a lot of Doubles and my tip to you (this is how I do it), let's say that I'm playing 123 with 12 in doubles with more money on the 12 with 1 doubles. If the horses I'm using in doubles are likely to produce a good exacta payoff, like the ones you mentioned, I'll play the exacta. If I'm using the lowest odds horses, I'll skip the exacta. If you miss an exacta that pays $20 you're not going to care, but if you miss one that pays $200, you're going to be ticked off. So, bet the ones that are paying well and skip the short prices.

Wow. Sage advice worth repeating.

Next time at the track I will follow.

Allan