Non Winners of 2 Races. Percentage of Favorites that Win ?

[BeatTheChalk]

Thanks for info .. and /or Sites to Check for help

[ultracapper]

My favorite races in SoCal. You have the StAl40s and the 2 claiming levels of 25K and 12.5k, along with the N3L for claiming $16k. I can't give you the stats you're looking for, but I strongly suggest you learn, and love, these races. They are outstanding opportunities, and poorly handicapped. They aren't taken all that seriously. The usual form perusal is such a let down because the form for some of these horses can get pretty ugly that I don't think most 'cappers give the due diligence that any race with your money riding on it deserves.

[BeatTheChalk]

You are sooo right about the ":Form " for these races.

[Milkshaker]

I follow the Delta/Evangeline circuit.

Last fall at the start of the Delta meet, I began scrutinizing and charting ONLY maiden races. (trips, trainer patterns, key races, etc...).

My intent was to get an edge in maiden races on this circuit.

A surprising offshoot I hadn't factored in was how valuable this info is in deciphering N2L races--particularly N2L races in which several last-out maiden winners are involved.

Based purely on my own anecdotal observations, the public repeatedly backs the wrong favorites in these types of races.

You can get some juicy prices on certain last-out maiden winners if your calibrations on those maiden races are halfway decent.

Personally, I was one of those handicappers who used to pass on N2L races entirely. Not any more, though.

[no breathalyzer]

n2l and n3l been my breed and butter for a while now. i'm almost at the point where its all i bet nowadays

[pandy]

Maidens or N2L are my favorite races, too. Personally I feel one of the advantages is that these lightly raced young horses are sound and you can also see horses just coming into their own. Races for multiple winners are full of older horses that may have some problems and their form can be erratic. Plus you never know which one is going to suddenly step up with a big race, or throw in a horrible race. With the limited winners, you can eliminate the slow horses and concentrate on the improving ones.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by no breathalyzer

n2l and n3l been my breed and butter for a while now. i'm almost at the point where its all i bet nowadays

Those conditions, and maidens, are all I bet serious money on. Just older horses also. I don't play any age restricted race for these conditions. Every now and then I'll play the state bred Optional claiming N1X on the Southern Cal circuit also. It's been a long time since I've put more than $10 on any other condition but these, except for the Kentucky Derby, which I have been betting $100 on for well over a decade now.