|
|
09-07-2018, 09:51 PM
|
#1
|
Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 188
|
Who makes the morning line odds and what info do they use?
Seems like whomever makes the m/l odds for the all the tracks has one thing in common “ tunnel vision”. I would rather have no M/L odds. Let me give you one example how almost no work goes into creating the odds. This past week Finger Lakes had a race where four of the entered horses all came out of the same race about twoweeks ago. Based on how the horses finished in that race is exactly how the odds were done for the next race. If the odds maker would have looked at trouble lines and saw that 2 of the horses had horrible breaks and one was a DNF the M/L odds should have been drastically different. Of course the betting public got it right and those m/l odds were way off.
|
|
|
09-08-2018, 05:01 PM
|
#2
|
Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
|
How much does the morning line maker for a track like Finger Lakes get paid? I'm guessing essentially nothing. It's just added to other duties.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 06:19 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
How much does the morning line maker for a track like Finger Lakes get paid? I'm guessing essentially nothing. It's just added to other duties.
|
There are very few tracks these days that pay a linemakers for exclusively. Most have multiple tasks. Oaklawn uses a few people in the racing off that trade it off.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 06:31 PM
|
#4
|
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
|
Odds data posted by Redboard
"According to the handy-dandy chart below, the "points" should add up to around 125.
Let's just say that four starters will be 90-1 or over, so that's 4 points. Another four will be 30-1, 8 points, and that 2 will be 20-1 or 8 points. This will give us a total of 20 points for the rest of the field leaving 105 points for CC and Arrogate.
In this estimate, each could be around 1-1 or slightly lower.
I don't see either being above 7-5. "
By Redboard
ODDS POINTS
90-1 1
60-1: 1.5
30-1: 2
20-1: 4
15-1: 6
12-1: 7
10-1: 9
8-1: 11
6-1: 14
5-1: 16
9-2: 18
4-1: 20
7-2: 21
3-1: 22
5-2: 28
2-1: 33
9-5: 35
8-5: 38
3-2: 40
7-5: 41
6-5: 45
1-1: 50
4-5: 55
3-5: 62
2-5: 71
1-5: 83
Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 09-09-2018 at 06:38 PM.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 07:19 PM
|
#5
|
Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZippyChippy423
Seems like whomever makes the m/l odds for the all the tracks has one thing in common “ tunnel vision”. I would rather have no M/L odds. Let me give you one example how almost no work goes into creating the odds. This past week Finger Lakes had a race where four of the entered horses all came out of the same race about twoweeks ago. Based on how the horses finished in that race is exactly how the odds were done for the next race. If the odds maker would have looked at trouble lines and saw that 2 of the horses had horrible breaks and one was a DNF the M/L odds should have been drastically different. Of course the betting public got it right and those m/l odds were way off.
|
Contrary to popular belief the job of the ML odds maker is not to handicap the field according to what he thinks the horses' chances of winning are. His job is to try to predict what the final odds will be based on how he thinks the public will bet. I guess that makes him more of a sociologist than a handicapper.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 07:54 PM
|
#6
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,121
|
Exactly where does the ML enter into the handicapping of a race?
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 08:01 PM
|
#7
|
Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Exactly where does the ML enter into the handicapping of a race?
|
It doesn't.....The morning line serves no purpose that I could ever see, it's always been obsolete.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 08:09 PM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
It doesn't.....The morning line serves no purpose that I could ever see, it's always been obsolete.
|
If the morning line-maker were offering his own opinion on what the odds should be...then the argument could be made that the ML at least expressed the honest handicapping opinion of one supposedly "knowledgeable" person. But, as it stands right now...the morning line isn't worth a damned thing, IMO. What good is having an oddsmaker try to predict the public's betting opinion...when no one can do a good-enough job of it?
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 08:14 PM
|
#9
|
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
|
All I would like is if one of the short duration meetings, fair, Kentucky Downs, etc, would try it without any Morning Line whatsoever...gauge the effects/ interest then decide if they want to keep it or try going for longer without one...
It might even improve handle, who really knows...
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 08:37 PM
|
#10
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
All I would like is if one of the short duration meetings, fair, Kentucky Downs, etc, would try it without any Morning Line whatsoever...gauge the effects/ interest then decide if they want to keep it or try going for longer without one...
It might even improve handle, who really knows...
|
The argument has always been: "If you don't like the morning line...then don't look at it." And it's a tough argument to tangle with.
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 09:25 PM
|
#11
|
Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 188
|
The morning line favorites are most certainly used for handicapping. Just look at the pick 3 will pays in any final leg. The morning line favorite is ALWAYS the lowest paying one in the field.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 10:03 PM
|
#12
|
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The argument has always been: "If you don't like the morning line...then don't look at it." And it's a tough argument to tangle with.
|
yes, I agree, but WHO are the people that make this argument...?
Do they have a direct relationship to a racetrack..? To the DRF...? There MUST be reasons other than tradition, or because “that’s the way it has always been done”..
..I guess on my part I ought to think more about why I don’t want one...I guess I believe somehow that knowledge is power and that the ML is KNOWLEGDE that influences how people wager to steer them to contenders, when they might not otherwise land there without the ML...
I realize there is a real “selfishness” and cynicism involved in this view...in viewing the betting public, in general, as less informed than adepts on this board typically are...
...I guess I must think that there is some wagering opportunity that might result if there were no ML’s...I would tend to think that real contenders might be overlooked more often...and the odds of all would tend to regress toward a mean, and that since contenders win far more of their share of races than their long shot counterparts, that this might add value to the market price of real contenders...
Last edited by VigorsTheGrey; 09-09-2018 at 10:05 PM.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 10:10 PM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
yes, I agree, but WHO are the people that make this argument...?
Do they have a direct relationship to a racetrack..? To the DRF...? There MUST be reasons other than tradition, or because “that’s the way it has always been done”..
..I guess on my part I ought to think more about why I don’t want one...I guess I believe somehow that knowledge is power and that the ML is KNOWLEGDE that influences how people wager to steer them to contenders, when they might not otherwise land there without the ML...
I realize there is a real “selfishness” and cynicism involved in this view...in viewing the betting public, in general, as less informed than adepts on this board typically are...
...I guess I must think that there is some wagering opportunity that might result if there were no ML’s...I would tend to think that real contenders might be overlooked more often...and the odds of all would tend to regress toward a mean, and that since contenders win far more of their share of races than their long shot counterparts, that this might add value to the market price of real contenders...
|
IMO...the removal of the morning line won't add even a cent of additional value to the market price of the "real contenders". The players who are swayed by the morning line have abandoned the game long ago...due to "insufficient funds".
__________________
Live to play another day.
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 10:33 PM
|
#14
|
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
IMO...the removal of the morning line won't add even a cent of additional value to the market price of the "real contenders". The players who are swayed by the morning line have abandoned the game long ago...due to "insufficient funds".
|
I agree, but that sounds like an argument for not having one at all...the sharpies today figure their own values and what they can live with before placing a wager...
..so if the ML is essentially of little use to them and the novices have left the game, then WHO IS LEFT to benefit from it to warrant the trouble to have one...?
|
|
|
09-09-2018, 10:43 PM
|
#15
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Kentucky
Posts: 433
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
..so if the ML is essentially of little use to them and the novices have left the game, then WHO IS LEFT to benefit from it to warrant the trouble to have one...?
|
You or I could put together the morning line, assuming we can read a race form.
Our goal is to pick winners and ignore the little stuff such as the morning line odds.
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|