Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - Trading The Financial Markets


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 9 votes, 4.11 average.
Old 10-02-2016, 04:40 PM   #16
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Unhappy this is the big one

going to have to put nets around all the tall office buildings
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 04:33 PM   #17
delayjf
Registered User
 
delayjf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Norfolk VA
Posts: 6,246
A Pirates Looks at 50

All this gold, I'm buy a parrot, getting my crew together and yo-ho, yo-ho the pirates life for me.
delayjf is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 05:22 PM   #18
whodoyoulike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.
I think J Dimon reads this site for ideas. If he is reading today's ... You're Welcome.

Quote:
... "They have plenty of capital, plenty of liquidity," Dimon said during an telephone interview on CNBC's "Power Lunch" program. "We want all these banks to get through because it's better for everybody."
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/jpmor...-problems.html
whodoyoulike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 06:17 PM   #19
Valuist
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.
OK, smart ass, here's the parameter: 18 months.
Valuist is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 07:24 PM   #20
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by _______
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.
A lot depends on your investment style.

If you are a day trader you have to be right within hours.

If you are at the other end of the spectrum (like me), several years is fine.

Then there is everything else in between.

Also, there could very well be new information that will cause me to take a less conservative stance.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 07:27 PM   #21
barahona44
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Diez meses en Port St. Lucie, FL; two months in the Dominican Republic
Posts: 4,355
Don't those "The World is coming to an end" sandwich boards hurt your shoulders after a while?
barahona44 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 07:33 PM   #22
sammy the sage
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
Replay Randle or Barn...either one could be right...the CORRUPT FED will determine...

Cheap money continues...Japan scenario....market keeps UP...artificially...like the LAST decade......not cheap...start raising rates...crashes....

not connected enough to know...and even those that are connected...so they THINK...some will GET sunk...
sammy the sage is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 09:27 PM   #23
Tape Reader
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,131
When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

If it’s Hillary, anyone that has been following the market will know that “This will be the day that the music died”. Apologies to Don McLean.

All of Wall St. is so conditioned to “SELL!” when rates move higher. Makes no difference economically, they know this has been a Fed induced rally and the “music” of musical chairs has stopped.

Once the election is over, the jig is up.

P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.
Tape Reader is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-03-2016, 10:55 PM   #24
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
P.S Moderator: Please move this thread to Trading the financial markets as there are some very good contributors on this that one may not want to miss.
The OP of this thread prefers it stays here....
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2016, 07:51 AM   #25
Parkview_Pirate
Registered User
 
Parkview_Pirate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
While I'm as bearish as the next person who understands basic arithmetic, I'm a bit skeptical the markets dive prior to the election unless TPTB would prefer Trump in the White House. The last big swoon in 2008/2009 seemed to correlate with the Fed drawing down excess liquidity. Not sure if they still have that kind of juice, but must assume so until proven otherwise. The global aspect and central bank coordination makes this bubble a bit different than ones in the past.

The doomsday market plunge view seems to be an awfully crowded trade as well, where as in the summer of 2008 there were fewer bears sounding the alarm.

With a due respect to RR, I'd anticipate the next plunge in the markets to coincide with a major war - which IMHO, would occur within 15 minutes or so of The Hag being sworn in....
Parkview_Pirate is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2016, 11:11 AM   #26
Saratoga_Mike
Veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tape Reader
When will market decline? IMO, the day after the election, or sooner.

If Trump wins, the liberal media will scare investors to sell.

.
How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."
Saratoga_Mike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2016, 12:28 PM   #27
barn32
tmrpots
 
barn32's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,285
Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
How? By quoting Trump who has called the market a bubble for the past year. It's hard to have it both ways. It's either a bubble, a defensible position. Or it's not, also a defensible position. If Trump's elected, it doesn't suddenly become "not a bubble."
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.
barn32 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2016, 12:34 PM   #28
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
I added a little to my gold mining shares this morning.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2016, 03:03 PM   #29
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by barn32
Trump doesn't know anything about the markets. He's simply parroting Carl Ichan, and he's said as much. The parroting Ichan part, anyway.
Apparently not too many people on this board do or they would be wealthy beyond their wildest imagination. I watch CNBC and Fox Business every day and see a lot of well known market gurus disagree. Could it be that nobody knows the markets?
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-04-2016, 04:12 PM   #30
barahona44
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Diez meses en Port St. Lucie, FL; two months in the Dominican Republic
Posts: 4,355
I can see the market grinding to a 15 to 20 percent drop over the next year.Remember, it's been essentially flat (just 1 % higher) than it was 20 months ago, so that has already cooled off some of the excessive speculation.IMHO, 40 to 50 percent drops are unlikely .Negative predictions are always given more weight than positive ones.Nostradamus is taken more seriously than Pollyanna.Must be a psychological thang
barahona44 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:16 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.