For those that are convinced Justify is the next coming...

[PowerUpPaynter]

How exactly do you plan to bet the 3-1 in the derby? Just curious, im not saying its right or wrong.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

How exactly do you plan to bet the 3-1 in the derby? Just curious, im not saying its right or wrong.

I hope they bet early and often. I will be taking a major stand against him.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

How exactly do you plan to bet the 3-1 in the derby? Just curious, im not saying its right or wrong.

I would definitely be looking at the doubles and superfecta if I liked this horse

[SkunkApe]

I'm not sure Justify will go 3/1. Maybe, but there are many who will be seen as legitimate contenders. This is a deep field.

Last year, Always Dreaming was under 5/1(paid $11.40) but the $1 exacta, tri, and super still paid $168, $8297, and $74,974.

So, single on top, and act like you're playing the win, exacta, and tri.

The real win is like free money, boys. This horse runs like God.

[f2tornado]

Depends on your bankroll, risk tolerance, convictions on horses underneath, and how much money you're gunning for.

Hypothetical $100 bankroll... I guess if you're in love with Justify then you should also appreciate Bolt since you're buying the speed figures suggesting both will be 8 lengths ahead of anyone else.

$10 Justify/Bolt cold exacta wager. $10
Maybe make a $5 box just in case. $10
Make a $1 1x4x7 tri wager $24
Put $50 on top
You have $6 left for some horizontal action.

If he wins and you lose on the gimmicks you still walk away with a $100 profit at 3-1.

[papillon]

Does three off a lay off apply to horses that have only run 3 or 4 races ever in their lives and all in one year?

If so, Justify will be 4th off a lay off going into the derby and Magnum Moon 5th off.

Vino Rosso will be 4th off as well.


Mendelssohn, Good Magic, Solomini, and Audible will be 3 off.


The trend for derby winners has been favoring horses with only 2-3 races in the spring preps and not having raced in November and December as 2yos. Chrome was an exception.

anywho, just a thought.

[SkunkApe]

No, no Bolt in second.

The Santa Anita reminds me of when I used to live in Wyoming, and my buddy's midget Shih Tzu dog used to chase pronghorns (which are pretty much the fastest thing that is.)

They had no idea they were even being chased. The dog would get withing 20 yards or so, and (cartoon Road Runner sounds) they'd dart a quarter mile away without even trying.

Justify could have won by 10 lengths, if he wanted. It didn't even look like he realized he was in a race.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

No, no Bolt in second.

The Santa Anita reminds me of when I used to live in Wyoming, and my buddy's midget Shih Tzu dog used to chase pronghorns (which are pretty much the fastest thing that is.)

They had no idea they were even being chased. The dog would get withing 20 yards or so, and (cartoon Road Runner sounds) they'd dart a quarter mile away without even trying.

Justify could have won by 10 lengths, if he wanted. It didn't even look like he realized he was in a race.

See that's two negatives for me. With 19 other horses, he's most likely going to know the race is on......and if he has deal with adversity, can he handle it? He has 3 races. He won't see the front like that in the Triple Crown races with those fractions and he didn't have to run until last half mile.

Two, if he could of won by 10, which he didn't, what the hell was he beating?........probably not much. Seeing what was running out there does not give the look of beating the best around.

I'd be very wary of a horse like this, that's the favorite.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by burnsy

See that's two negatives for me. With 19 other horses, he's most likely going to know the race is on......and if he has deal with adversity, can he handle it? He has 3 races. He won't see the front like that in the Triple Crown races with those fractions and he didn't have to run until last half mile.

Two, if he could of won by 10, which he didn't, what the hell was he beating?........probably not much. Seeing what was running out there does not give the look of beating the best around.

I'd be very wary of a horse like this, that's the favorite.

True, there are a lot of things we don't know here. That's why they run the races. But what we DO know is that Justify beat what was then the consensus best three-year-old dirt horse in the wold, like the pronghorn beat Pookie.

So what if there are 19 Pookies next time? My money is still on the pronghorn.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

True, there are a lot of things we don't know here. That's why they run the races. But what we DO know is that Justify beat what was then the consensus best three-year-old dirt horse in the wold, like the pronghorn beat Pookie.

So what if there are 19 Pookies next time? My money is still on the pronghorn.

He did beat a fine horse in Bolt by a few lengths by saving energy early then going full throttle late. Pretty much a spitting image of how the Ark ran. Justify ran the final 3/8th in about 37.1 and that’s about as fast as a horse will go. There was no 10 extra length margin in that fuel tank. I will add Bolt is horse that got beat by Solomini, Good Magic, and technically McKinzie. Maybe Bolt wasn’t the best three year old dirt horse in the world. Consensus best is merely a popularity contest based on perceived performance. Perception is not always reality.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

He did beat a fine horse in Bolt by a few lengths by saving energy early then going full throttle late. Pretty much a spitting image of how the Ark ran. Justify ran the final 3/8th in about 37.1 and that’s about as fast as a horse will go. There was no 10 extra length margin in that fuel tank. I will add Bolt is horse that got beat by Solomini, Good Magic, and technically McKinzie. Maybe Bolt wasn’t the best three year old dirt horse in the world. Consensus best is merely a popularity contest based on perceived performance. Perception is not always reality.

True, but Magnum Moon was wandering around in the stretch like a midwesterner leaving the Vegas Nugget at 4:00 AM.

Justify was like "Hey. Another horse. WTF? Zooooom."

I'm telling ya: this horse runs like God. Come to the light, brother. It's not too late.

[letswastemoney]

There's always some odd longshot closer like Golden Soul, Ice Box, Commanding Curve, Lookin at Lee etc. who clunks in at the end.

Justify wheeled over a longshot or two could pay off.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

True, but Magnum Moon was wandering around in the stretch like a midwesterner leaving the Vegas Nugget at 4:00 AM.

Justify was like "Hey. Another horse. WTF? Zooooom."

I'm telling ya: this horse runs like God. Come to the light, brother. It's not too late.

Moon ran the final panel in 11.99 (versus 12.70 for Justify). I can forgive the drift. Those jet packs can be hard to control. I’m not high on either horse for the win pool. I think the 6F Derby fraction will be 1.5 seconds faster than the Santa Anita and even faster relative to the Ark. If Justify did have 10 additional lengths in the tank then he might need each one of them. I respected his 3/8 fraction enough to box him with a couple contenders in the final future pool. That’s all the chalk I’m eating.

[SkunkApe]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Moon ran the final panel in 11.99 (versus 12.70 for Justify). I can forgive the drift. Those jet packs can be hard to control. I’m not high on either horse for the win pool. I think the 6F Derby fraction will be 1.5 seconds faster than the Santa Anita and even faster relative to the Ark. If Justify did have 10 additional lengths in the tank then he might need each one of them. I respected his 3/8 fraction enough to box him with a couple contenders in the final future pool. That’s all the chalk I’m eating.

Good luck. You seem like a knowledgeable guy. But sometimes, rather than doing all these complex analyses, looking at curses and jinxes, and wearing out your calculator buttons, I think it may be easier to just bet on the horse that's gonna win.

That's what I'm gonna do this year, anyway.

(I laughed at the "jet packs" comment. I have a clear mental image now. Heh heh heh.)

[Immortal6]

Originally Posted by SkunkApe

Justify was like "Hey. Another horse. WTF? Zooooom."

??? Justify walked on an uncontested lead, never "zoomed" by anyone. Not saying he won't win but as countless others have mentioned here on this forum, he broke his maiden, won on a sloppy track against a bunch of nobodies, and then beat imo, no horses of great interest apart from Bolt d'Oro who may or may not have been tuned up to run his best race.

"Runs like God" wtf does that even mean? You can maybe claim that he "runs like God" if he draws off to win the derby by 5+ lengths.

I do have to say I loved your anecdote about the Shih Tzu and the pronghorn