I paid a penny for Justify thoughts Kentucky Derby pre race

[LoneF]

Are you wondering what Justify will be thinking at the Kentucky Derby ???

Justify as he is being led to the post parade ...

“ What’s going on here ? I thought only 5 horses were allowed to race at one time and why don’t these other horses have that tag on them that says next stop glue factory ? “

As the gate pops open and Justify breaks a step slow as usual ...

“ Hey Mike what’s hapoening ? I didn’t know these other horses were allowed to touch me? They are so rude !! Where is their manners ? and what’s that stuff flying in my face it feels like dirt. It is dirt !!! Mike nobody told me I had to get dirty “

Justify heading into the first turn after being shuffled back to 16th

“ Didnt somebody tell those other horses that I am the one who is supposed to be in front ? Why aren’t they slowing down ? Screw it I want to go back to the barn and eat some hay this racing stuff is just way too hard !!! “

Post race back at the barn after Justify was eased and finished 19th

“ Listen Bob it wasn’t my fault. Did you see how fast those other horses were running ? They had to be drugged up . They need to test that Mendelssohn. No horse can run that fast .... “

[Immortal6]

*Justify doesn't break well from the aux gate.

*Has 3 furlongs to the first turn, so it doesn't matter anyway.

*Sits a stalking trip on Mendelssohn.

*Mendelssohn doesn't have UAE speed bias and gold rail.

*Justify draws off to win by open lengths.

*Mendelssohn is another failed UAE Derby horse.

You can make up any scenario you want for any of the horses. Until we know post positions most of these "won't break well" "never had dirt in his face" arguments are null and void in my book.

For the record I'm not necessarily as high on Justify or Mendelssohn as some people on here are, I'm just stating that your love for Mendelssohn and hate for Justify might need to be reigned in a bit.

[jay68802]

Post parade: "Look, 19 chumps, and me."

In the gate: "Hey Mike, I know I am not the best gate horse, so get me settled and in about a minute, we will have some fun."

During the race: "You think a little bumping and dirt is going to affect me? Keep dreaming."

Stretch run: "Hey Mendelsshon, What's up?"

After the race: "Told you I am one of the best 3 yr old's out there."

[exactatom]

Or

" Why are there so many people watching today as they put the saddle on me?"

"What is this song they are playing and why is everyone cheering at the end of it?"

"That sure is a big video board"

"I sure an sitting a long time in this gate. Usually I like to draw the #1"

"A lot of horses in here with me"

"Why did that horse cut me off"

"That Quip and Promises Fulfilled sure are running fast early"

"I can't around all these horses to get by them"

"These slowpokes are holding up traffic"

"Man, I really ran far today and not near the end"

[papillon]

How many spring maiden wonderkinds have made the top ten?

Bodiemeister, for sure, who else?

How many have been in the bottom five?

Materiality, for sure, who else?

How many leave the KY Derby to either never race again, or to race only a few times, and never win?

I've nothing against the horse, but I haven't seen anything even suggesting Hall of Famer yet, certainly nothing suggesting All Time Greats, and history suggests that is what it is going to take. He's got to buck a trend that is going on 130 years. That suggests Apollo was fluke, not a monster.

He is not setting speed records, he is not demolishing his only true competition. He could very well turn out to be the next Spectacular Bid, but does anyone, being honest, truly believe that? If he had the Bid's start in the Florida Derby, do you honestly feel confident he'd have been able to overcome it?

In a battle between brothers, do you take the brother who has never taken a punch to the gut? The brother who has only ever used wiffle ball bats, to the brother that's been swinging Louisville Sluggers his entire career?

Forget Mendelssohn's time and lengths won in the UAE Derby, he ran the mile in 1:35.97 in the BCJT, World Approval, a premiere miler specialist, ran the the mile in 1:34.66, good magic ran the BCJ mile in 1:36.99. Even making allowances for surface and assuming World Approval's time was indicitive of a turf track at leadt 1 second faster than the dirt, I'd say Mendelssohn is at leadt as good as the best of the American crop, esp given he isn't a great turf horse.

The "Santa Anita is Slower Now," argument to account for for 3/4 in 1:12 has the burden of proving the fastest track in the nation is now between 2-3 seconds slower than it ever has been, and is now one of the slowest. The doubters don't carry that burden.

The horse may be a world beater, better than the Bid, better than Point Given, better than American Pharoah, but that's a big ask on three uncontested races, besting a horse that hasn't won since September.

Regarding Bolt D'Oro, has any horse won the derby off a 3 race loosing streak?

[GMB@BP]

Where are these articles claiming he will be a Hall of Famer or All Time Great.

I see words like "talented", "rare".

Feels like a straw man to me.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by papillon

Regarding Bolt D'Oro, has any horse won the derby off a 3 race loosing streak?

Sea Hero lost his preceding four races before wearing the roses; 7th, 9th, 3rd, and 4th. Super Saver didn't win either of his two three year old preps going into the Derby but won his fall race.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by papillon

Regarding Bolt D'Oro, has any horse won the derby off a 3 race loosing streak?

Sea Hero, Giacomo, Mine that bird to name a few recent. Different era but I know Sir Barton was a maiden Derby winner, like 0 for 6 going into the Derby for his first race as a 3yo. I'm sure there are others.

[Tom]

"Hey Mike....help yourself to a few roses."

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by papillon

How many spring maiden wonderkinds have made the top ten?

Bodiemeister, for sure, who else?

Congaree, Curlin, Pulpit.

Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Cloud Computing didn't make the Derby field, but won the Preakness (as did Curlin). Rock Hard Ten placed in the Preakness.

Corporate Report debuted in March, ran in all 3 TC races, took the Travers.

Summer Bird split the Derby field and later won the Belmont.

Diazo ran a solid race behind Sea Hero.

Quintana won a maiden claimer in February and ran 6th to Strike The Gold.

Wheelaway made a big move, but lugged in late, was toast soon after the TC.

Atswhatimtalknbout ran a good 4th, never ran again.

Showing Up debuted in February, ran decent 6th to Barbaro.

How many have been in the bottom five?

Materiality, for sure, who else?

Materiality was a late closing 6th in the Derby after missing the break.

Disposal debuted in March, ran last behind Lil E. Tee.

The ill-fated Desert Hero won his debut in February, well back behind Charismatic.

Valhol buzzed his way to CD after debuting in February. Far behind Charismatic.

Greeley's Galaxy 11th to Giacomo.

Coin Silver broke maiden in March, 12th to Giacomo.

[cj]

Originally Posted by papillon

How many spring maiden wonderkinds have made the top ten?

Bodiemeister, for sure, who else?

How many have been in the bottom five?

Materiality, for sure, who else?

Materiality didn't finish anywhere near the bottom 5.

Edit: I see Spalding covered this already.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Congaree, Curlin, Pulpit.

Red Bullet, Bernardini, and Cloud Computing didn't make the Derby field, but won the Preakness (as did Curlin). Rock Hard Ten placed in the Preakness.

Corporate Report debuted in March, ran in all 3 TC races, took the Travers.

Summer Bird split the Derby field and later won the Belmont.

Diazo ran a solid race behind Sea Hero.

Quintana won a maiden claimer in February and ran 6th to Strike The Gold.

Wheelaway made a big move, but lugged in late, was toast soon after the TC.

Atswhatimtalknbout ran a good 4th, never ran again.

Showing Up debuted in February, ran decent 6th to Barbaro.



Materiality was a late closing 6th in the Derby after missing the break.

Disposal debuted in March, ran last behind Lil E. Tee.

The ill-fated Desert Hero won his debut in February, well back behind Charismatic.

Valhol buzzed his way to CD after debuting in February. Far behind Charismatic.

Greeley's Galaxy 11th to Giacomo.

Coin Silver broke maiden in March, 12th to Giacomo.

Great memory!

[letswastemoney]

Bodemeister's advantage was showing enough speed to avoid traffic. If Justify does the same, he will be fine.

He doesn't have to set the pace. He can be around 3rd or 4th.

[exactatom]

Since the current point system went into effect, the Derby winners have come into the Derby undefeated.

A small sample size to choose from.

This could be the effect of:

1. Connections knowing they can wait until much later to begin a horse's Derby run as only 1 win (in a 100 point race) is needed to get in the gate.

2. The point system weeds out horses that got graded earnings in slots funded races at distances under 1 mile.

[LoneF]

Justify has raced against a grand total of 14 horses heading into the KY derby.

11 of the 14 were just random fillers to get the races to go. You heard Mick Ruis say himself the only reason he entered 90-1 Otbit Rain in the Santa Anita Derby was to get the race to go. 2 of the 3 remaining horses were fringe players at best on the KY Derby trail. ( Core Beliefs and Instilled Regard ) The only horse of any substance he beat was Bolt and Bolt has lost his last 3 races and nobody really considers him a serious contender. Cmon 14 horses ??? That seriously has to be a KY Derby record.

It’s not like he pulled a Altsheba in one of his races and went to his knees in the stretch and still won. He has had nothing but easy unbelievably comfortable gift wrapped trips. He is probably the only horse in the field who has never taken any dirt or been even slightly compromised in any way in any of his races.

It’s not like his final times are anything noteworthy.

How anybody can say his resume either on paper or visually even remotely stacks up against the likes of Audible, Mendelssohn, Good Magic or Magnum Moon is beyond me, yet he is the short priced clear cut favorite in what is one of the strongest derby fields in history.

I would even go as far as to say Hofburg 2nd in the Florida Derby was as every bit as good if not better than the Santa Anita Derby win for Justify. He is even more lightly raced so just as much as a chance to move forward if not more and at least Hofburg has faced getting bumped and taking dirt and having to work out a trip from a bad post . Oh and also the projected derby pace seems to favor a closer like Hofburg much more than a horse like Justify who needs to be close to the pace.

Yet Justify will go off at 5/2 and Hofburg at 20/1

What exactly has Justify done that his rivals like Audible, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Good Magic have not done to merit him being the clear favorite ?

I know people are desperate for the next American Pharoah and since they are both trained by Baffert and he keeps bringing up the comparison between the two that it’s easy to let your emotions get the best of you as a bettor ...

Rule #1 in gambling. Don’t bet with your heart.