Kentucky derby early thoughts

[Bennie]

Still 10 days out and things can change but thought I would put in my initial thoughts. After my early basic handicapping I can't argue with anyone who is inclined to wager on Audible, Bolt, Justify, Magnum, Mendelssohn, Noble Indy or Vino Rosso and even a little of Good Magic and Hofburg. I can find reasons to play all of these as well as reasons not to play any of these. It will all come down to what I see in workouts, final TFUS numbers and a couple of other factors that I have not yet included. Since the point system has changed I have been handicapping the Derby 3 different ways, including the way I have done since the first year that myself and others were privy to CJ's original pace figures. Just quickly, the old way has in no special order Bolt,Magnum and Justify on top followed by Vino. Another has Justify, Bolt, Hofburg and Magnum followed by Solomini. The remaining one has Noble, Vino, Audible, Bolt, Mendelssohn and Good Magic followed by Justify, Magnum, and Hofburg. Mendelssohn may be included in the first two groups except for the lack of info in regards to his actual numbers being timeform based. These I hope to verify when the final TFUS Derby figures are posted. It will also come down to which factors I feel are more important. Apollo curse, foreign shippers, storm cat factor, and pending track conditions. I will say that the storm cat factor may be over with the influence of scat daddy now.Guess we will find out in 10 days. I do have some futures with Bolt, Solomini and Free Drop Billy in exactas and Oaks/Derby doubles, so I will also base some of my wagers based on the outcome of the Oaks. To me on paper this could be a 6 or 7 horse blanket finish and maybe one of the more exciting finishes. I do have Bolt with the field from pool #1 which includes most of these and Free Drop and Solomini in pool #2 that has Justify, Magnum, Noble and Vino as members of the field. I may end up just sitting back and watching.

[Fred Mertz]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Guess we will find out in 10 days.

I may end up just sitting back and watching.

Hey Bennie,

I found your comments informative. Thanks! I'm heading to Kentucky Downs with a few friends and we'll take it all in. Churchill is closer, but not that zoo for me.

I hope you and I will watch our money roll in at the wire.

I've got six choices right now and I'll make a decision by then...or I might take your advice and sit back and watch.

I invited my dipwad brother and hope he stays under control.

[PhantomOnTour]

After a good deal of studying,I believe the winner is either Good Magic or Vino Rosso

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

After a good deal of studying, I believe the winner is one that practices Good Magic while drinking Vino & Rosso Asti Spumante

fyp

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

fyp

Boys you are killing it lately man! Love it!

[Wiley]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

I invited my dipwad brother and hope he stays under control.

Hope you can post his pick this year!

Sometimes these types have great insight.

I think Anna Nicole Smith picked back to back winners, "I like that Funny horse" then the next year, "I like Smarty Pants"

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

Boys you are killing it lately man! Love it!

Boys, love the Nicolas Cage with the Zig, Zag...

[PhantomOnTour]

Nice one Boys At Tosconova
Lolol

[boys at tosconova]

much thanks...my pet hamsters are feeding me data on my top 3 as we speak.

[n.c]

going to guess he handicapped the race and he thinks he might be able to close at the end vs the early speed.
Romans horse Free Drop Billy- a closer, who just had a great work out over the track. Could possibly hit 3rd or 4th.
At the 2nd call, 13 horses will be 1-4 L off the lead.

Free Drop does have a win over the track.

Unbeaten horses going into Derby win at 25%.
Magnum Moon and Justify- Did not run as 2 year old's, but Baffert and Pletcher have many horses to condition these horses. A workout is like a real horse race, so experience might not be a issue here.

[n.c]

Always dreaming had a bullet work out last year
Barbaro had a bullet work out over the track
Giacomo had a bullet work out over the track

Maybe some other horses over the years had great workouts at CD before winning the derby. These 3 come to mind.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Would love to have a fast track for the Derby as it eliminates one huge variable handicapping he race for a sloppy track...it is a tough enough educated guess otherwise.

[A. Pineda]

Originally Posted by n.c

Always dreaming had a bullet work out last year
Barbaro had a bullet work out over the track
Giacomo had a bullet work out over the track

Maybe some other horses over the years had great workouts at CD before winning the derby. These 3 come to mind.

On the other side of the coin, Normandy Invasion worked in 58 4/5 - which I believe was best of the day - before Orb trounced him by nearly 4 lengths.

I pay more attention to how the horse handles the surface than their times, although many trainers are shipping in closer to Derby Day now, when their horse(s) may only get in a gallop or two. In 2010 Paddy O'Prado was M/L 20/1, primarily because his record consisted of a dirt sprint, 4 races on grass, and a second in the BG, which was on synthetic.

Paddy rated 15th of 20 on wet surfaces, yet he handled the sloppy surface very well in his works, and went off at 12/1 and filled out the bottom of the tri.

[Fred Mertz]

JV going with Vino Rosso

If you had a choice of multi-millionaire owners or a couple of billionaire owners, [Viola and Repole] who would you go with?

It's a non-issue in my mind.

[boys at tosconova]

3-good mojo

you have to luv you some good majk. i can't argue any point that most of you already know or read. it looks like a first fight effort is coming. it's as plain as day.

although the FOY and BG do seem second rate tour to get to the derby, he did take care of biness like BTO does in the song. i really never gave his derby horses much of a look because they didn't look good enough imo. and obv most of them weren't. but brown deserves respect here.

seems like all systems go to go along with tactical speed. he;ll obv have to improve, but that looks like it's coming as well, and he already did that cycle last here pulling it off.

if you don't want to recognze that and say he's to slow, then, well, you can do that. but with his history already doing it, and brown saying the horse gives him is best chance ever, it's easy peasy. only question is what hs odds will be.