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Old 04-08-2018, 06:39 PM   #16
pandy
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Maloney covered this in his book, and actually did find instances of past posting, but most of the time it's just late money that comes in and doesn't get counted until after the race starts. All this really proves is that there are some good players out there who are looking for overlays and a lot of money comes in late. The only way to stop this type of odds change after the start of the race would be to stop taking bets a couple of minutes before the race starts, but I don't see that happening.
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Old 04-08-2018, 06:56 PM   #17
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I have been researching and playing this game seriously since 1982...and I dare say that few people here have pushed as much money through the betting windows as I have. I've had a passion for this game all along...and it hurts me to say things that label me as a "hater" of this game, or as some sort of "conspiracy theorist". But, IMO, this game is so overrun by fraud and incompetence that I can't believe anything that anyone tells me when it comes to the game's "integrity", or lack thereof.

Financial woes have sent the horse racing industry begging to the politicians for casino licences...and the grandstands are empty during the racing meets of the most renowned tracks in the land. And the industry has had to roll out the red carpet for some well-heeled Wall-Street boys, who are now allowed to wreak havoc on the tote board to the detriment of the rest of us. In the absence of a unified governing body...who knows what kind of bargain a "Whale" can strike for himself...when he promises to infuse an astronomical amount of money into the mutuel pools, during the "troubled times" that our game currently finds itself in?

When things get desperate, even an HONEST business enterprise has a difficult time maintaining its virtue. Imagine what can happen if the enterprise is dishonest to begin with...
So the numbers at GP now a year round facility(GPW break)doesn’t prove the product can get better? How many times do the odds change on the winners at GP? It seems running the race approximately eight minutes after post time may indeed have solved this problem but I don’t have any scientific information to prove that. Maybe someone else does.
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Old 04-08-2018, 07:16 PM   #18
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It's every bit as bad at Gulfstream as anywhere else.

Dragging post times by 7-8 minutes per race (every race) doesn't solve anything.


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Old 04-08-2018, 07:16 PM   #19
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Knowing what is going on is exactly what has made me cut down on the number of days I play. Maybe 20-25 days a year in total, down from 3-4 days a week.

It really is sad to see.
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Old 04-08-2018, 07:38 PM   #20
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Justify was a lead pipe cinch to win that race. That's a poor example to use.
Yeah, i realize that. Just trying to use a race that everyone remembers and knows the horses involved. The only knock on the horse was he was facing a proven stakes winner. Handicapping points aside, if there was any doubt about his chances of winning, he would have been in the 6 to 9-5 range when the odds opened and would have maybe drifted a little higher, if Baffert or any one connected to the horse had any doubts.
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Old 04-08-2018, 07:40 PM   #21
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It's every bit as bad at Gulfstream as anywhere else.

Dragging post times by 7-8 minutes per race (every race) doesn't solve anything.


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True, the odds change just as many times there. The post drag is just keeping the pools open longer so they get bigger pools.

Last edited by jay68802; 04-08-2018 at 07:40 PM. Reason: added word
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Old 04-08-2018, 07:50 PM   #22
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I can understand why the biggest bettors wait until the last possible second. I'm guilty of that myself.

The longer you wait before pulling the trigger (without getting shut out) the higher the percentage of final money present in the pools.

The closer the pools are to final - the more "added info" you can infer from the tote.

Track video (at least the Roberts Communications track video the everyday player who bets through an ADW gets to see) has a delay. Sometimes that delay is significant.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the whale teams have figured out a way to get track video streamed to them in real time. Doesn't have to be anything elaborate. Station an agent on track with a smart phone. Turn the camera on and zoom in on the starting gate.

Imo, anybody betting significant money whose models are using the tote as inputs would be crazy not to do something like that.

Imo, doing something like that gets you an information edge over all of the other players who are relying on the track video racing decision makers in their infinite wisdom decided to purchase from Roberts on the cheap a few years ago.

Bit of a rant, I know. But if you as a racing decision maker decide to purchase track video from a vendor on the cheap and that video is delayed 15-20 seconds minimum:

Are you really going to sit there and tell me with a straight face the largest bettors on the planet are above figuring out a way to exploit that?


Methinks everything being talked about in this thread falls into the category of chickens coming home to roost.


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Last edited by Jeff P; 04-08-2018 at 07:53 PM.
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Old 04-08-2018, 07:55 PM   #23
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Roberts isn't delayed by 15-20 seconds.

You know within a second or two when the pools close on AmWager. The interface tells you exactly when the pools close.

The race starts on video within 2-3 seconds after the pools close on AmWager.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:07 PM   #24
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Are you sure?

I've been on the phone (handful of times) with someone who happened to be on track. (Derby Preps. Arlington Million. Breeders Cup., etc.)

Guarantee you what I hear coming over the phone (announcer's call/crowd noise. etc.) happens several seconds before I get to see it and hear it watching video from my ADW.

--EDIT: Also get shut out 8-10 times a year (race closed) watching track video with horses in front of the gate but not a single horse loaded yet.

Based on that I formed an opinion (expressed in my rant.)

Am I wrong? Is my cable company somehow delaying the internet to my particular neighborhood?

--EDIT: That said, a delay of even 2-3 seconds is an eternity to a computer.


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Old 04-08-2018, 08:07 PM   #25
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True, the odds change just as many times there. The post drag is just keeping the pools open longer so they get bigger pools.
That's why they gotta do what Pandy said. Whether a track drags their feet or not........that's not the problem. The windows and all bets should shut down a couple minutes before and the odds finalized. With the technology today it doesn't matter whether people are cheating or not. As everyone can see the "look" is suspicious and not good for the game. They never figure out, when this many of your customers complain.......you got a problem.

And there's credence to what Thask is saying too, whether people are cheating or not. The business is desperate.........money (handle) trumps "appearances" or being strict with people that can move the odds like this. It takes a lot of dough to move the odds that much at these bigger tracks. If they crack down, its not really in their financial interest to do so without taking another blow the business. When no ones at the track........you ain't making gate money, beer money or any money off the facility itself. They are pretty much at the will of people dumping bets like this....and I'll say this again. Whether they are cheating or not.....at least with final odds you won't see this sort of thing happening when they are coming down the stretch. But what do i know, complaining in this game has been poo pooed for years and that's more than half the problem. The complainers are nut jobs or conspiracy theorist........ Even after people are indicted or banned......
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:20 PM   #26
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I don't think people are betting after the bell. For the record.

But when 40% of the pool doesn't show up until after the gates open, even at a huge venue like Keeneland, never mind the tiny tracks, we have a serious problem on our hands.
It isn't just that it is so much late, it is that it is the smartest money late betting at a much different price point than most people.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:31 PM   #27
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Are you sure?

I've been on the phone (handful of times) with someone who happened to be on track. (Derby Preps. Arlington Million. Breeders Cup., etc.)

Guarantee you what I hear coming over the phone (announcer's call/crowd noise. etc.) happens several seconds before I get to see it and hear it watching video from my ADW.

--EDIT: Also get shut out 8-10 times a year (race closed) watching track video with horses in front of the gate but not a single horse loaded yet.

Based on that I formed an opinion (expressed in my rant.)

Am I wrong? Is my cable company somehow delaying the internet to my particular neighborhood?

--EDIT: That said, a delay of even 2-3 seconds is an eternity to a computer.


-jp

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It's delayed, but not 15-20 seconds. Or maybe I'm wrong. Never seemed that long to me.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:33 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
There is no way this money is being wagered with out information that is not public.
The whole post is good, but I really want to focus on this part. I'll pick on Gulfstream but this really could apply to lots of tracks, particularly those with Trakus.
  • There are timing errors galore.
  • You don't know the real distance of the turf races including run up
  • You don't know the time of the entire race
  • The fractions are totally skewed due to run up, especially when changing it for the same distance on the same day

Does anyone really think that not only do the CRW teams have better information, but that it isn't being provided to them when possible?

There is so much more we don't know that people could buy and exploit against the general public. I could have made this list three times longer easily. Feel free to add to it.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:34 PM   #29
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The windows and all bets should shut down a couple minutes before and the odds finalized.
This wouldn't cure the problem for me. If everyone knows the pools close at 0mtp, what difference would that make compared to everyone knowing the pools close once the gate opens?

The ONLY thing this would solve is the "public perception" that someone is past posting because the odds change after the race starts.

I don't care much about that.

I care about the fact that I bet a horse at 9-1 when they're just starting the gate load, at Keeneland, in a very large pool, and the horse wins and I only get back $11.

That's what I care about the most.

Now how do you solve that? Closing the pools before the race starts won't solve that problem at all.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:37 PM   #30
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It's delayed, but not 15-20 seconds. Or maybe I'm wrong. Never seemed that long to me.
I've got bets in and watched them break seconds later on my television and on my computer. I'd be really surprised if ADWs were given some extra leeway because of the lag. That would be figured out and taken advantage of without question in my opinion just by having someone on track on the phone with you.

I should note I'm on Dish on TV which has even more lag than standard cable for sure.
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