Past Performances: STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purs$1,100,000 Florida Derby (Grade 1)

[Blenheim]

Past Performances are in for the Florida!

Pletcher Florida Derby: Audible http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

Looks like Always Dreaming is runnin' in the Hardacre Mile Stakes.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Strike Power could make a big jump in this race. 2nd time around 2 turns, was on the wrong lead down the stretch, hopefully that can be fixed, they say hes really filled out, and has been working great. The Raise A Native sire line is another plus. He might just put it all together.

[f2tornado]

I'm playing bombs away.

//

The is a double Buckpasser-x and has room to pop a big one. Equibase figure last out for Audible suggests he is overrated. We shall see.

[Immortal6]

I'm a bit stumped here how Promises Fulfilled gets almost the same fig as Audible did for his performance in the Holy Bull when Audible's time was 2.6 seconds faster...you can't tell me that a difference in run up or track conditions can make that big a difference... Either way I'm looking to beat those two on top and I'll look to use Catholic Boy and Mississippi.

I think Catholic Boy gets a nice stalking trip and gets the services of Irad who just always seems to know exactly when to press that button to make his closing drive. Mississippi has already shown speed here at GP and will certainly have to do so again breaking from the outside post. His longer layoff and fairly impressive work tab are good enough for me.

If I were forced to pick a winner I would tepidly vote for Catholic Boy and hope for a pace meltdown up front by all of the speed.

Ex box

Tri / /

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Immortal6

I'm a bit stumped here how Promises Fulfilled gets almost the same fig as Audible did for his performance in the Holy Bull when Audible's time was 2.6 seconds faster...

I thought same and then saw Equibase had a much stronger figure for PF than Audible. I’ll assume the track was running slow that day. Neither have ideal 9F bloodlines. The so called speed in the race is not all that fast. I too think CB can sit just off then pounce. He’s got the Buckpasser as well. For what it’s worth, chalk has been getting beat most of the prep season and see no reason it cannot happen here. We have similar wager. Hopefully we collect.

[Tom]

Audible chickened out huh?
Not a good sign.
Maybe the Oaks is more his speed! Oh, wait, the fillies are faster.

[Spalding No!]

Fairly weak renewal of this race. Several entrants feature holes in their training and race records while others visually have looked "iffy" finishing up their most recent races. The Fountain of Youth was won wire-to-wire on a fairly uncontested pace and the pace scenario hear doesn't really promise to be much different. Promises Fulfilled is the only dedicated frontrunner so there's going to be a bit of cat-and-mouse amongst those with enough pace to assert some early pressure: Audible, Strike Power, and Mississippi. I would predict that it will be Strike Power, who was the most immediate victim to Promises Fulfilled wire job, who will bite the bullet and take up the running early. He drew the rail, has a sharp work for this, and best effort was his debut when he looked like a superior sprinter.

If such a duel develops, I think MISSISSIPPI is the most likely winner. Despite this being his stakes debut, he has some stakes caliber form in his gritty prolonged duel with subsequent Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy in a January allowance race. Was wheeled back rather quickly (for this day and age) in another allowance and was quite flat early despite breaking sharply, opting to settle well off the pace. Took a while to get going but finished up solidly to just miss, although that should be taken with a grain of salt. Main rival Navistar essentially bolted on the far turn and eased while the winner, fellow FL Derby entrant Storm Runner, looked horrific in the stretch, running with his head up, bent in half while lugging in on the wrong lead. I won't hold Storm Runner's subsequent effort against either horse, as its a miracle he's even able to continue to start in the near term, but its not a real positive that Mississippi failed to reel him in. Mississippi has trained steadily since despite not starting in another race, and will add blinkers for this race, which should ensure that he is near the first flight and in an opportune spot when the real running begins.

PROMISES FULFILLED even if engaged by Strike Power, should have enough to hold on for a placing. He was wisely freshened for ~60 days after the Kentucky Jockey Club, where he lugged out badly (to the point of being checked multiple times by his rider) throughout the backstretch in that race. Showed back up in front wraps but ran professionally when untouched early, and came out of the race with a sharp work before a steadier effort a few days ago.

CATHOLIC BOY was knock down a peg at Tampa when collaring fellow converted turf horse Flameaway at the head of the lane before being turned back in the final furlong. That he won his dirt debut in the Remsen is not particularly impressive, its been a fairly unproductive race for quite a while now, and several other turf types (Nobiz Like Shobiz, Court Vision, Mo Town) have also won it. Its basically a race targeted year in and year out by the Kiaran McLaughlin/Godolphin stable so that the Shiek can have a Derby "prospect" every year. Once in a while they actually win the race (Mohaymen), but that just makes the crash landing back to earth that much more bitter. McLaughlin has done precious little in the Triple Crown outside of Jazil's Belmont win years ago (and I'll give more credit to the uber-dam of that horse than the training job). Still, Catholic Boy probably has enough for a minor award here before he's trounced at Churchill and returns to turf in the early summer.

STRIKE POWER is a sprinter who has failed to switch leads in all 3 starts, the worst coming last out on the stretchout, where he labored noticeably and drifted out down the lane after being turned back by Promises Fulfilled. The extra distance and possible more aggressive handling early can only ensure he continues to regress performance-wise. Wait for the Woody Stephens and Allen Jerkens with this one.

AUDIBLE has more holes in his training than a slice of swiss cheese. He had a conspicuous 22 day break from working despite already taking 16 days to return to the worktab following his facile off-the-turf allowance score in December. Worked steadily until the Holy Bull where he took another 19 days to get it together off that seemingly impressive win. The effort looks better on paper, as he was under a drive through most of the race and distinctly swapped back to his left lead as he reached the wire while his main rivals all spit it out by the top of the stretch. Free Drop Billy came right back to be humiliated in a weaker race. Soundness concerns aside, Audible isn't bred to stay even 9f to begin with. Wait for mile races or even turf if he doesn't disappear into the black hole at WinStar Farm.

HOFBURG is being thrown into this presumably after a sharp workout. He took 6 months to reappear after a ho-hum debut at Saratoga. Was all out while drifting out against the similarly well-bred Just Whistle in his maiden score. Barn is not noted for their success in the Triple Crown.

[jay68802]

Any questions?

[Robert Fischer]

wide-open race.

Low-odds-Tosses = Audible. He is an awful workhorse. Maybe he's simply an odd case who 'turns it on' in the afternoon, but it's enough reason to toss him and try to find some value.
Strike Power. He'll take some money, and is ripe to bet against. The slow pace in the FOY helped disguise his inability to change leads. He'll be exposed today.


Possible Keys = Catholic Boy. Proven commodity. Popular horse, so you must demand value.
Hofburg. Big time move, has to improve in the stretch. 20/1 ml.

must include =
Mississippi. Hate the outside post and he's not as good as the 6 or 7. Still, he's a tough racehorse and should be a good enough value to justify using.


tough choices = Promises Fulfilled. Awful value (3/1 ml?) but he could be in the mix.
Storm Runner. May be better than the 4. Is a great price. Also may not be any good.

[letswastemoney]

I like Storm Runner, but I'm worried about the possibility he will just quit again.

The pace clearly was slow enough last time for his style. He just didn't like being shut off and stopped. But can a horse like that be trusted? I guess that's why he's 20-1.

[letswastemoney]

My other idea is to backwheel key Catholic Boy and just hope a longshot fills in one of the other spots.

[boys at tosconova]

strike power - seems like he'll take money and be on everyones tickets. lightly raced, gettng better, eligibile to improve, and he needs to run big to secure a spot at churchill. what i don't like is he was bred to go shorter, not longer. also,..the time of the FOY wasn't that special. this horse needs the race more than FP and should be fully extended here. the question is if he can get the distance or if he's fast enough

millionaire runner- well,..the good news is his last race where he only lost by 3.5L was his best since his maiden victory. the bad news is that the race went 146.5

tip sheet-mississippi beat him by almost 6.5L and he only beat prohibitive longshot milly run by a nostril with a slightly troubled trip. lost by 20L when audible crushed the field in 141

promises fulfilled- nice horse, ran wire to window of the layoff in the FOY. could he be tighter? could he bounce? again,...the time wasnt anything special and he seemed to have things his way...like strike power, he's lightly raced and we might not have seen his best as well. but he still doesn't seem that fast yet, and why push hard here if you're already in the derby? horse go go in many directions here by design or by talent or lack of it. plus the odds will be low. i don't think he'll win the race. my guess is that he'll show some speed and race evenly and romans would be happy with 3rd.

storm runner- last race was awful. would have liked to has seen more. it was non competitive bad and 3 seconds slower than his race when he beat mississippi while being greener than the hulk. if he runs back to that race he can figure in the exotics but i still think mississippi is better and it's pretty hard to remove that blemish without good reason.

catholic boy- what can you say. he's been solid since he's stepped on the track beating top horses. already won and crushed at the distance as well. race might even provide a speed duel for him. only logical way he;s not around is if they walk atround the track up front.

hofburg-2nd race off the bench from a maiden win..wheeled right back. juddmonte is taking their chance. could he get bettre, yes..there is hope, only because of the limited data . but lets' get serious, he isn't a likely winner, and it looks like he;ll need the perfect storm for a 2nd/3rd place finish along with a huge effort. i guess if they blaze early he'll be coming. still, does he doesn't have the look and feel of a horse that's going to improve by almost three/four seconds.

audible- i don't care if he trains sluggishly or his works have been sporatic. nobody can go 141 in here with the info given. audible did and had more in the tank when he did it.

mississippi- some people are picking him as a longshot, and while he might be 5th choice he should take plenty of $$$ and people will be frowning to see 8-1. those restricted races were methodically spaced and his competitiveness in them and the time fits well enough for him to hit the board here. don;t think he'll win but if the 1 and 4 don't run well missy will be up close and will try and fend off catlick and audie murphy when they turn for home

[Lemon Drop Husker]

//All

[Afleet]

Going w/Storm Runner. Like the jockey change. Not sure I like the blinkers on for Mississippi; I would rather see them drop back and make one run-thats what Leparoux does best anyway. Don't like Strike Power. Roll the on the board w/

[Robert Fischer]

Race total (r11 vs. r14 same card)
name Bris MPH(trakus) Distance(ft)
Promises Fulfilled 104 37.1 5676
Hofburg ..............96 37.0 5729


1st Quarter
name Raw Time MPH(trakus) Distance(ft)
Promises Fulfilled..23.80 38.5 1346
Hofburg ..............24.19 38.5 1366