Gun Runner vs. Songbird

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This is how I see it. I dont get why some people were doing cartwheels when she lost to beholder and then yesterday. Its kinda like the Zenyatta thing all over again, except this horses campaign has been kinda out of this world difficult over her 3 seasons.

Here we go with the fanatic talk....her campaigns have been out of this world difficult?

She's faced males zero times, missed the Kentucky Oaks, faced older females once and has avoided Vale Dori and Stellar Wind three times this year.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

At the time Rachel's Valentina and Tap To It were highly regarded prospects & a few others had the typical record of lightly raced 2yo fillies. Admittedly, not many from the group went on and developed into anything, but that was the whole point of my post.

There's no magic formula that tells you if a young horses is going to develop, when, or by how much. You judge them relative to their peers and the typical level of performance you can expect from that age/sex. Then you see where they go later.

IMO Songbird was justifiably hyped off her 2yo form. She was brilliant at 2. Then she did not develop as much as hoped as her 3yo season went on.

Unique Bella may or may not be a similar case. People are justifiably very high on Unique Bella also. If she doesn't go forward from where she left off, she'll be mediocre relative to the older fillies by the end of the year. If she jumps up more in line with typical development she might be the favorite to win the Distaff. But at this point, to me, it's obvious she as been special to date & the hype is justified. Now we are waiting to see how she comes back.

So it wasn't a strong field, right?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

This is how I see it. I dont get why some people were doing cartwheels when she lost to beholder and then yesterday. Its kinda like the Zenyatta thing all over again, except this horses campaign has been kinda out of this world difficult over her 3 seasons.

It's called confirmation bias.

People start with an opinion, look at all the data and evidence as it comes in, and then interpret it to fit that original opinion.

She had an easy trip and lost by a neck to multiple Grade 1 winning horse with upside that missed by a little over a length to a multiple year champion like Beholder in last year's BC Distaff. So now she's a dog with fleas.

At this stage of her career she's neither a super filly nor a dog with fleas, but she's had a great career and it's very understandable why people were so high on her based on her early form.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

So it wasn't a strong field, right?

You don't seem to get the point.

There's never been a Kentucky Derby that was really strong by Breeder's Cup standards, but plenty of them were weak/strong by Derby standards with no guarantee as to if, when, and how much the horses were going to develop.

I think it's appropriate to judge the Derby by Derby standards and watch where the horses go as an independent thing.

I see nothing weak about that Juvenile Filly race.

There were some solid prospects going into it, the race was formful, and the race came up really fast.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You don't seem to get the point.

There's never been a Kentucky Derby that was really strong by Breeder's Cup standards, but plenty of them were weak/strong by Derby standards with no guarantee as to if, when, and how much the horses were going to develop.

I think it's appropriate to judge the Derby by Derby standards and watch where the horses go as an independent thing.

I see nothing weak about that Juvenile Filly race.

There were some solid prospects going into it, the race was formful, and the race came up really fast.

I do get the point. You said it was a strong field. It wasn't going in and certainly wasn't as we look at it now and you're another blowhard who can't admit when you're wrong, who also never has a pre race opinion but are an expert after.

I've seen all this before and I'm bored with it now. Have a nice day.

[Dahoss9698]

This is eerily similar to the Zenyatta nonsense. Fanboys had egg on their face then and could make an omelet after yesterday.

But not one of them can admit anything. It was the ride, she was off in the paddock, she's had tough campaigns, etc.

All to avoid having to admit she's not an all timer. A very, very good filly that would get beaten soundly by the fillies I mentioned a month ago.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Still waiting for something, anything pre race from you little man.

Please DO hold your breath.

[Spalding No!]

The evidence that Songbird's BC Juvenile Fillies was a strong race was the final time. As she did in the Chandelier (the same day as the Frontrunner) at Santa Anita, she outperformed fellow unbeaten 2yo champion and subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist by over a full second.

The caveat is that the 2yo Nyquist is not the same as the 3yo Nyquist (at least the "spring" version of Nyquist). Based on speed figures, Nyquist developed a lot over the winter. Additionally, Nyquist had a tougher trip in his BC race.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

blowhard.

Someone pass this guy a mirror.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Seriously. I don't know what the game is here. It's all a matter of semantics, good, great, just how good or great. Maybe we should start a racing scale, so we can be more specific to meet some people's liking. How about a scale of 1 to 10, using 10ths. Since none have been perfect, no horse gets a 10. Fager, Sec, etc are all in the high 9 fractions. A single G1 type winner is a 5. Therefore I'll put Songbird in the low 8s, I guess. How's that?

sounds about right

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The evidence that Songbird's BC Juvenile Fillies was a strong race was the final time. As she did in the Chandelier (the same day as the Frontrunner) at Santa Anita, she outperformed fellow unbeaten 2yo champion and subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist by over a full second.

The caveat is that the 2yo Nyquist is not the same as the 3yo Nyquist (at least the "spring" version of Nyquist). Based on speed figures, Nyquist developed a lot over the winter. Additionally, Nyquist had a tougher trip in his BC race.

He said a strong field....not strong race. Obviously it was a strong race. But there was little behind her.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Please DO hold your breath.

I didn't think so.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Someone pass this guy a mirror.

I just love that I'm so under your skin.

You never answered, how was your swim?

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I didn't think so.

I didn't think so either. I said way back I'm not a gambler. So you be proud that you are, and you post away with your picks. I won't see them because I couldn't possibly care less.

Capiche?

Mr. Internet

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I just love that I'm so under your skin.

You never answered, how was your swim?

It could've been more enjoyable if you were there. Floating face down.

Mr. Internet