Software Contest - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

betovernetcapper · 07-12-2003, 10:00 AM

What might be interesting, is a contest in which several software providers post their sotware's top three picks-every day-every race for a month. August and Saratoga would be perfect. Bragging rights for the winner would have to be worth several sales and losing software devolopers would stop hawking their producks for a while.

Speed Figure · 07-12-2003, 10:52 AM

No software provider is going to do that. If there picks are not good the software does not look good. That would hurt sales! I would love to see it happen.

Suff · 07-12-2003, 11:20 AM

Thats a great idea. I'd like the software writers to send thier best selections and have a SOFTWARE SHOWDOWN.

question is...is it software assisted or software selections.

I'd like to see software selected. Have your machine crunch the numbers and spit out 3 selections. Use all the tote except pik6's pik4's and superfecta's.

Roll everything
WP on all 3,,
2 ex box all 3
2 tri box all 3

Straight up Publicaly verified computer selections. All the products need to be "for profit" and "for sale" somewhere.

Most people know... a bad month does'nt equal a bad product. It'd be fun to give the guys with the product the center stage.

penguinfan · 07-12-2003, 12:37 PM

ARE YOU GUYS NUTS?!?!?! I mean actually let the results speak for themselves? You have got to be kidding, no self respecting used car salesman, errr, software salesman would let this happen, ever. As we speak the senior members of the Association of Software Sellers (ASS) are looking into hiring an attorney to get this post removed.

Penguinfan

rmania · 07-12-2003, 01:10 PM

I’m game......

Of course the rules would have to be tailored somewhat for me to participate.

Since RaceMaker currently focuses on SoCal sprints only, I’d be on the sidelines based on the initial proposition.

And, like a few other programs I’ve seen, mine doesn’t spit out winners. My “VirtualView” handicapping feature breaks a race down into 3 segments (half-mile pole, quarter pole, and finish). As mentioned in the tutorial, positions at the quarter pole are the strongest indicators. And, true to form, horses shown leading at the quarter pole have been winning at a rate of over 50% for the current Hollywood meet. Most have been sent off as favorites or second choice, but a few nice hits have kept the ROI above +25%.

Having said that, I’d have to pass on any contest that included exactas and trifectas since that would be testing my skills as a handicapper and not the validity of the software.

So like I said... I’m game if the results provide a fair evaluation of my software.

Speed Figure · 07-12-2003, 01:17 PM

Rmania, You are one of the only software makers that post there programs picks.

rmania · 07-12-2003, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by speed figure
Rmania, You are one of the only software makers that post there programs picks.

Thanks fffast, but if you read my posts the picks are generally not "program picks". They are my picks and they're usually double-digit odds. I guess that's just the handicapper in me. Always trying to beat the favorite.

Dave Schwartz · 07-12-2003, 01:34 PM

Let me ask you a question... How should we represent HSH?

Which approach should we use?

PowerLine?
7-Button?
Synthetic Pace?
Prime3 Object?
Prime2 Objects?
Rating Objects?
NetPace w/suggested pacelines?
NetPace with some other custom paceline selection system?

How should we adjust the pacelines? For age? Penalize maidens stepping up?

Should we adjustour probabilities towards the public's (i.e. adjust for the toteboard)?

Should we use the Synthetic Pace (no paceline selection) combined with some other factor (such as class or form)?

My point is, that to have a contest that "takes the output of a program" is dependant upon the settings chosen by the user. And that is as it should be.

One of the biggest fallacies in racing is that a user is going to find ANY software that can do it all for them at the touch of a button right out of the box.

Now, that does not mean that a program cannot be MADE to "do it all for you." It just means that YOU've got to find the way to do it.

I'll tell you what I'd be up for...

1. Each software developer uses his own software...

2. Posts an EXACT system for doing the same thing in each race (i.e. a set of rules that his own users can follow along with).

3. We play EVERY RACE from 5f to 10f at each of (say) 8 tracks. Dirt, turf, maidens, FTS, everything. That should give us about 70 races per day.

4. We bet 2 horses in every race.

5. The picks MUST follow the rules set by the developer. That is, there is NO personal decision possible.

6. We send the picks via email to 2 contest monitors prior to (say) 2 minutes to post. (One contest monitor is simply a backup in case email fails.)

7. We also send along screen shots verifying that we made the correct picks from our system.

8. Miss a post deadline, lose the race.

9. If you don't follow the rules you set, you lose the race.

10. Results would be tallied every few minutes and posted on the PA board. (We'd need a volunteer to be keeping score in a spreadsheet and the spreadsheet is simply posted.)

11. The contest runs for 5 weeks... Starts on a Wednesday, 8 days later we do a Thursday, 8 days after that we do a Friday, 8 days after that we do a Saturday and the last is a Sunday. We should wind up with about 350 races, or 700 bets. (And possibly some scheduling adjustments would have to be made to accomodate particular vendor's personal needs.)

We could call it the Great Software Challenge.

I'd be honored to be the first entry. Any other takers?

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Speed Figure · 07-12-2003, 01:41 PM

Dave, That sounds great! Looks like HSH is ready to go.

Dave Schwartz · 07-12-2003, 01:55 PM

HSH IS ready to go.

Tom · 07-12-2003, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
HSH IS ready to go.

Give me time to fund all my accounts!

rmania · 07-12-2003, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz

Which approach should we (HSH) use?

PowerLine?
7-Button?
Synthetic Pace?
Prime3 Object?
Prime2 Objects?
Rating Objects?
NetPace w/suggested pacelines?
NetPace with some other custom paceline selection system?

As one can see, many of these programs contain multiple "sliced and diced" views of the same data.

The developer should have a feel as to which view produces the best overall "out-of-the-box" results. The developer should also know which method is the easiest to comprehend by the user.

In other words, what's the best and fastest way for a novice to use the program and make a profit.

The process should be simple and identified up front with no deviations.

If we limit the number of tracks to one per day, playing all applicable races, with win only on the top pick and a 3 horse exacta box on the top 3, then I'm in. Otherwise I'll be a most interested bystander.

Secretariat · 07-12-2003, 04:06 PM

Curious how programs whicj rely heavily on modeling and datamining would be affected by your rules Dave.

My programs place a great deal of emphasis on data mining in making decisions. Or are you proposing no modeling, only using ratings.

Dave Schwartz · 07-12-2003, 05:25 PM

Secretariat,

I plan to build a systematic approach using modeling on each individual race. Should take me about 90 seconds for each race.

In fact, I plan to use the same system I just demonstrated on our latest video, with one small modification (which I shall divulge, of course).

Dave

Dave Schwartz · 07-12-2003, 05:39 PM

RMania,

To quote my previous message:

"One of the biggest fallacies in racing is that a user is going to find ANY software that can do it all for them at the touch of a button right out of the box."

You said: "In other words, what's the best and fastest way for a novice to use the program and make a profit."

In my opinion, novices are not supposed to be able to make a profit. It's just not that easy. There is a necessary level of commitment to an approach, a program, a discipline, if you will.

The important point is that it should be an approach that someone that does not have the skill of a Tom Brohamer or a Dick Schmidt should be able to accomplish without a lifetime commitment.

As for playing only one circuit in the contest... I would suggest that shows your product to be a "specialist" and personally, that would not be something I would be interested in being. Also, I think that it is not within the scope of this contest.

Personally, I do not do well with first-time starters... but I am not going to say "Let's not play any first-time starter races." Let me have to build a set of rules for playing those races.

Dave