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Old 05-11-2009, 12:10 PM   #1
Cangamble
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Field Size

I know there is a correlation between field size and handle, but as a handicapper, too many 12-14 horse races can be quick bankroll killers. Personally, I prefer races with 8-11 horses in it. 8 horses are OK for exactors, doubles and pick 3's, and supers and tri's are OK in 9 horse races, but I tend to want 10 or 11 horse races for those type of bets.
Just curious what the preferences of others are here.
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Old 05-11-2009, 12:26 PM   #2
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I like those full fields of maiden claimers or cheap two lifers like they have at Tampa. There are often very few real contenders. If you ever wonder about what we are breeding just look at the overflow entries in bottom of the barrel sprints.
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Old 05-11-2009, 12:27 PM   #3
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Bigger fields are better.

You guys go on and on about the takeout but I would prefer higher takeout if it goes along with bigger fields.
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Old 05-11-2009, 12:35 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjk
Bigger fields are better.
I agree; the more the merrier.

It never ceases to amaze me that more runners aren’t 200-1 etc. There is that bell curve that humans form with over betting the high and low tote ranges. For every aberration we see that pays triple figures there are 40-1 shots day in day out that should be 4X the price.

The bigger the field; the more different cappers see the merits at both ends of the spectrum and leave more meat on the median’s bones imo.
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Old 05-11-2009, 12:40 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanG
more meat on the median’s bones
Dan, that is a great line....I have to remember to use it at some apropos moment.
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Old 05-11-2009, 12:58 PM   #6
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We are so conditioned to 6 horse filed sprints on dirt like PHA race 1 that we do not seem to think there is any other way to play. I have a buddy who plays UK racing. Some of the fields are 18 deep with a chalk only 7-1.

They say that if you increase field size by one horse it increases handles by 5%. That is so true, imo. If you make an odds line in a 5 horse field it usually matches closely to the board odds because there is so little noise. Make that field a twelve horse one and you might have four opinions worth taking a shot. If you add a low takeout medium like an exchange, the longshots (as Dan says) are 4X board odds, making them a juicy looking bet at times.

Big fields open so many doors and I do not know why we do not see them pushed for harder, especially in pick 4 sequences.
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Old 05-11-2009, 01:10 PM   #7
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Good points Dean and thanks Gary; we are just flat out running out of competitive horses to fill these unrealistic racing schedules.

I can’t imagine being a Racing Sec in the mid-Atlantic when you write a ANW1 and Del, Mth, Bel, Pha, PID, Mnr, CT, Penn, Cnl, Pim etc are all potentially within a van ride.

A city block can only absorb so many Pizza shops before the natural order of attrition begins. We are cannibalizing ourselves from within and badly diluting the final product.
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Old 05-11-2009, 01:24 PM   #8
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On the other hand, there are quite a few six horse fields where a very hittable exacta pays $50+.
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Old 05-11-2009, 01:36 PM   #9
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I still say that too many 12-14 horse fields are bankroll busters. It does create more chaos because of traffic jams, so if anything, a lower takeout is required. These races also kill churn.
But on the positive side of things, if you do hit an exotic in a 12-14 horse field, you might get enough to keep your bankroll alive for a week or more.

I look back at my most successful cashes, and I think they mostly occurred in races that had 8-11 horses though.

I always look at the Derby as a crap shoot.
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Old 05-11-2009, 01:36 PM   #10
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Field Size

Building on this question, what other sorts of things factor into the decision to pass or play? We have done some analysis of some the determinants of handle with mixed results. I have included some to the things we have looked at below, any input is appreciated.

1. Field Size
2. Betting Interests
3. Competitiveness (variance of a particualar fields odds)
4. Day of Week
5. Time of day
6. Simulcast competition
7. Race Category
8. Distance
9. Wagering Menu
10. Open Company/Statebred
11. Stakes Day or No Stakes on that day.
12. Gender
13. Takeout (Modeled, but no empirical data)

Last edited by PrairieMeadows; 05-11-2009 at 01:37 PM. Reason: Ommission
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Old 05-11-2009, 01:39 PM   #11
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Re: Field size

Story done up in the Des Moines Register the week before PRM opened their live meet this year. Talked of tougher rules for the workers on the backstretch. This year, the documentation for backstretch workers must have been submitted before workers were allowed on the backstrech. Story goes that this "technicality" prevent some trainers from shipping into PRM because they would not have enough hired hands to care for the horses they were planning on shipping here. From memory = I believe they were given a couple weeks to get their documentation in order before it was required in the racing office (can you say INS enforcement?). My understanding is the stalls did not fill this year and we are open to see some 5-6 horse fields on a regular basis. Other trainers are starting to ship in and hopefully that will help the fields sizes. I learned that one of the barns had a cough virus going around the past week or two so an entire barn of horses are regularly being scratched out of the races, obviously something that would compound this issue.

As a side item = I met with Patrick (PrairieMeadows) on Saturday night, and he introduced me to Dan Doocy, Thoroughbred Racing Secretary and Derron Heldt, Director of Racing, both fine gentlemen who invited me to their offices to see how a day in a racing office goes, as they try to fill the races and deal with horsemen and issues that come up on a daily basis. I also found out that PRM is posting their Condition Books out on the web...they can be found here = http://www.prairiemeadows.com/racing/horsemaninfo/ along with a wealth of other information. Patrick told me he would like to make as much as possible transparent for the handicapper. He is VERY sincere in that if there is anything they can do to help the player, they are all ears. Obviously somethings may take some time to get proper approvals and all, but it doesn't hurt to ask!

Last edited by Donnie; 05-11-2009 at 01:42 PM.
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Old 05-11-2009, 01:41 PM   #12
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Looks like he beat me to the punch by 3 minutes!
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Old 05-11-2009, 02:00 PM   #13
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Y'all,

I remember reading a white paper circulated by Doug Reed of the RTIP team at UofA regarding pool size as a function of field size.

I can't find the paper (hazards of moving every 4 months).

The gist is that there was a linear relationship between field size and handle. There were 3 inflection points in the chart. If my memory serves me well, the slope of the graph increase at a field size of 5, 8, and 11.

So empirically, more money is bet per runner in 11+ field sizes than 8+ field sizes.

As they say on Jim Rome, I will 'effort' to find the white paper which I believe is about 5 years old.

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Old 05-11-2009, 02:07 PM   #14
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i prefer nothing more than 8 or 9 horse fields after that too many races are altered by racing luck ...jockey error.....and to me that is just pure gambling ..except like the gentleman said in the lower level mdn claimers ...most of those horses will never win a race and retire to pull ice wagons and hot dog carts!
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Old 05-11-2009, 02:36 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PrairieMeadows
Building on this question, what other sorts of things factor into the decision to pass or play? We have done some analysis of some the determinants of handle with mixed results. I have included some to the things we have looked at below, any input is appreciated.

1. Field Size
2. Betting Interests
3. Competitiveness (variance of a particualar fields odds)
4. Day of Week
5. Time of day
6. Simulcast competition
7. Race Category
8. Distance
9. Wagering Menu
10. Open Company/Statebred
11. Stakes Day or No Stakes on that day.
12. Gender
13. Takeout (Modeled, but no empirical data)
Most everything you listed Prm plays into it in one degree or another.

In addition a few off the top of my head…

• Racing integrity: I.e.….Drug testing and strict enforcement of suspensions and % of Super trainers per square inch.

• On that train of thought: Since bettors have ZERO recourse when fraud is committed by drugging animals; a large portion of the fines (that should be 10X what they are btw) should be committed back to the betting pools as a token effort of good will and much needed retribution for being cheated in a financial transaction. (Not my idea btw; but I can't remember where I heard this)

• Real time information:Accurate on-line shoe board, all other equipment / med changes / strict on track workout policy for FTS and layoffs.

• A timing system that is at least within one century of today. The Gulfstreams of the world with all their cosmetic mumbo-jumbo would have made HUGE strides if they installed a state of the art; saddle cloth enclosed GPS system and posted accurate fractional times.

• Be the leader in directing your equibase chart caller in a standardized notation system. This process of writing the same thing 169 different ways depending on jurisdiction is completely unnecessary.

• To this day tracks don’t have a clue at what is being bet off-shore; or the players that were off-shore and are now out all together. (Waiting for someone to take the lead) If the state is blocking takeout reduction; you must target the serious player who is seeking a fighting chance through rebates. The “Pinnacle” model wasn’t just an aberration; they filled a void and the churn they created can be yours if you start viewing gambling in terms of decades instead of minutes.
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