Possibly a meltdown pace?
Nimitz Class: The rain dance the new connections did last night didn't come to fruition. Nice horse that has racked up 11 wins in his career, and been a nice little ATM machine. However, this is a whole different class of others he is stepping up against today. Draws the 1 hole, and almost assuredly needs to be sent. While he beat
Trademark in the Salvatore Mile at Monmouth, this is a whole different class of race. Pass
O'Connor: Would be a solid beneficiary of a hot pace, and could sit a really nice pocket rail trip if it did ensue. He is in career best form coming in off of 2 straight wins, but Gaffy opting to ride
Skippylongstocking is a bit of a concern. Paco is a solid mount though, and knows this strip well. Contender
Dynamic One: 2nd time after a year plus layoff, and his comeback race was a huge clunker against lesser. Has an extremely solid 5(3-2-0) record at the distance, but this is a huge ask for the now 6YO. Backers should get a solid price for the extremely solid connections of Pletcher/Ortiz and his running style looks to set up very well for the likely pace dynamics of this race. Gotta let this one beat me.
Hoist the Gold: Career sprinter stretches out to 9F for the first time in his career. Ran 8.5 panels once, and folded up like a lawn chair. As a sprinter, he also does his best work on the front end. Little doubt the formula here has to play come and catch me if you can. Extremely difficult seeing this first time router getting it done today. Pass.
Trademark: Comes in off what is arguably his career best race in the G2 Clark at Churchill in which he passed a couple of rivals in here late. Looks to sit one of the better trips in this field with a very nice post position. Only real question is whether De La Cruz in the saddle is ready for a moment like this? Solid contender.
Senor Buscador: Likely the biggest benefactor if a pace meltdown were to occur. He'll likely be coming from dead last passing a bunch of tiring rivals late. Even with an almost guaranteed hot pace, this strip just isn't all that kind to deep deep closers like Senor. At the very least you need to include in bottom end of Ex, Tri, and Supers. Solid contender that you will not get anywhere near the 20/1 ML.
National Treasure: Little doubt this guy will be sent to the front and try to wall everybody off till the wire. That was a huge race he ran in the BC Dirt Mile only to get caught at the wire by eventual Horse of the Year
Cody's Wish. He has every right to keep moving forward as a 4YO. Pace dynamics seem to be against this guy, but this is a Baffert trainee and this is a big stage. Baffert's almost always seem to fire in these type of moments. Solid contender.
First Mission: Lightly raced 4YO hasn't done a lot wrong in his 5(3-2-0) career to date. Has a great stalking first run type of style for the likely set up he'll get today. Cox barn is still smoking hot, and Saez rides this guy well. Serious contender that could be prime for a career best effort today if he doesn't get caught up in a hot pace. Contender
Grand Aspen: Yet another that looks like he has to be on or near the lead to have any shot today. Nearly got it done in the G3 Harlan's Holiday last out on this strip, but stretches even further out today with another half furlong while taking on even tougher company. Solid J/T combo, but looks to be in too deep of waters with a bad post. Pass.
Il Miracolo: Always seems to find a way to be in the mix late, but not win all that often. He is 10 for 16 in the money lifetime, but doesn't ever seem to get it done against his best peers. 6 tries at 9F and zero wins. Exotics player only.
Crupi: Pace dynamics seem to really fit this guy, but the 3 times he has ventured into Graded Stakes company he has fell flat on his face and never been any kind of threat. Dettori gets the call for the first time. Yet another Pletcher that backers should get a very solid price. Pass.
Skippylongstocking: That was a really solid effort in the BC Dirt Mile in which he tracked
National Treasure the entire way in legit fractions. While he tired late, it was still a very very nice race he ran that day. Gaffy stays aboard this guy and he does have a solid 7(3-1-1) record at 9 panels to date. However, the dreaded 12 post at this venue is almost impossible to look past and he very much does his best work on or near the lead. Hand is almost forced for this guy to send. Post alone makes me have to pass on this one.
While this race looks to have all the inklings of a pace meltdown, we all know this track too well. Especially on big days when front-runners and chalk seem to dominate. We'll get 12 races before this one kicks off, and a solid sense of how the track is playing come the 5:40ish PM EST post.
draws in for Irad, and of course wins.
